Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

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Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

• Scott Kiser
• Polar Max 2005 Conference

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Early Image
Hurricane - ? Satellite - ? Date - ?
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Hurricane Katrina
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Hurricane Katrina
NOAA-17
MODIS on NASA Aqua
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NHC Six-Hour Forecast Cycle
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Hurricane Advisory Package

• Five products issued every 6 hours for all
• tropical cyclones
• Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
• Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory
• Tropical Cyclone Discussion
• Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities
• ICAO Aviation Advisory
• www.nhc.noaa.gov

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Track Chart
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Experimental 34-knot
Probabilistic Winds
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Tracking and Forecast Tools

• Satellite
• Aircraft reconnaissance data
• Ship and buoy data
• Land station observations
• Land-based radar data

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Polar Orbiting Satellites

• NOAA Polar Orbiter
• AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit)
• AVHRR (Advanced Very High Radiometer
• HIRS (High Resolution
• Infrared Radiation Sounder)
• NWS obtains
• Precipitation estimates
• Intensity
• Sea surface temperatures
• Center position
• Convective structure
• Atmospheric temperature/humidity profiles

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Polar Orbiting Satellites

• DMSP
• (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program)
• SSM/IS (Special Sensor Microwave/Imagery Suite)
• NWS obtains
• Ocean surface wind speed
• Precipitation
• Sea surface temperatures
• Center position
• Convective structure

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Polar Orbiting Satellites

• QuickSCAT
• SeaWinds scatterometer
• NWS obtains
• Wind speed
• Wind direction
• Center location
• Wind radii

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Polar Orbiting Satellites

• NASA AQUA
• MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging
  Spectroradiometer)
• AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer)
• AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder)
• NWS obtains
• Precipitable water
• Water vapor
• Sea surface temperatures
• Center position
• Convective structure
• Atmospheric temperature/humidity profiles

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Polar Orbiting Satellites

• NASA TRMM
• TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager)
• PR (Precipitation Radar)
• NWS obtains
• Precipitation/rain rates
• Center position
• Convective structure
• Ocean surface wind speed
• Sea surface temperatures

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Polar Orbiting Satellites

• ERS-2
• (European Research Satellite)
• WS (Wind Scatterometer)
• RA (Radar Altimeter)
• NWS obtains
• Wind speed
• Wind direction
• Center location
• Wind radii
• Wave heights

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2005 Successes
Forecast Track
Katrina Track
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2005 Successes
Rita Track
Forecast Track
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The Future

• Continued upgrades in observational capabilities
  (satellites and aircraft)
• Upgrades to many numerical models in 2006
• New HWRF model by 2007
• Continued long-term improvement in forecasts and
  techniques