Meeting Sterns Challenge Environment and Sustainability

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Meeting Sterns ChallengeEnvironment and
Sustainability

• University of Exeter

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Projected impacts of climate change
Global temperature change (relative to
pre-industrial)
1C
2C
5C
4C
3C
0C
Food
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Falling yields in many developed regions
Possible rising yields in some high latitude
regions
Water
Significant decreases in water availability in
many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern
Africa
Small mountain glaciers disappear water
supplies threatened in several areas
Sea level rise threatens major cities
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs
Rising number of species face extinction
Extreme Weather Events
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires,
droughts, flooding and heat waves
Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
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Delaying mitigation is dangerous and costly
Source Stern Review
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Reducing emissions requires action across many
sectors
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Many options policy matters and prices crucial
Source McKinsey
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The economic paradigm shift

• The way we conduct much of our business will
  change
• New products and services will be needed
• Its not just about energy
• Two issues mitigation (Stern) but also adaptation

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Adaptation

• Even if we stop emitting carbon tomorrow
• Committed to a certain level of climate change
  due to accumulated carbon stocks
• c80 chance of global temperature rise exceeding
  2C

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Adaptation

• We have experienced
• about 0.8C rise in global temperature since
  1960s
• about 50mm of sea level rise in 20 years

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Imagining the future

• What will the world be like 100 years from now
  if
• Mean temperatures rise by 3-5C
• Sea levels rise by 0.5m
• Extreme weather events increase - more floods and
  more droughts
• Increased population pressures
• All this is likely to happen in Cornwall

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Imagining the future

• Land-owners
• What trees should we be planting?
• Farmers
• Are there cropping opportunities we need to know
  about?
• What pests might become more common?
• Conservation organisations
• Should we be planning for northwards shifts in
  ranges?

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Mitigation

• How do we reduce our dependence on fossil fuels?
• Reduce our CO2 and other GHG emissions
• Today in UK we emit 9-12t per head
• This will need to go to 2-3t per head

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Mitigation

• UK budget
• Target to reduce UKs CO2 emissions by 60 (80?)
  by 2050
• Many activities will have to be zero carbon
• Estimating a million jobs in businesses in low
  carbon sector

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Low carbon Britain

• Economic paradigm shift
• Many things being done differently
• Opportunities for those with knowledge
• Not just energy
• But services, products, technologies

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Many options policy matters and prices crucial
Source McKinsey
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Cornwall

• Once headed global economy
• Mining industrial crucial to industrial
  revolution
• Export of mining technology, skills and knowledge
• Cornwall deserves a leading economic future

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Economic needs

• Old business base - working differently
• New businesses
• Predictable
• Unpredictable
• Knowledge