Departamento de Ci

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Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente
Research work funded by FCT/MCES and POCI 10
supported by FEDER
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Workshop IIIntegrated Modelling of Environment
and Energy PolicyPortuguese energy system
scenarios for 2030 and Greenhouse Gas emissions
Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do
Ambiente FCT - Faculdade de Ciências e
Tecnologia UNL - Universidade Nova de
Lisboa DCEA-FCT/UNL
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Overview

• TIMES_PT
• Structure and information sources
• Objective Function for optimisation
• Energy Services Demand 2000-2030
• Model Inputs primary energy potentials,
  technologies databases (costs, efficiencies and
  availability of electricity generation
  technologies), etc
• Energy Scenarios 2000-2030
• Energy Consumption (total, sector, electricity
  generation)
• Energy imports and exports
• Technologies profile
• CO2e emissions
• Analysis of CO2e Abatement Scenarios 2000-2030

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TIMES_PT

• Structure, Inputs and Outputs, Information Sources

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TIMES Model
Dynamic model of linear optimization, that
configures the energy system in such way as to
minimize the net total cost of the system, while
satisfying a number of constrains of the demand
Analyze the system behaviour over a certain
period of time and assume that the energy markets
are in perfect competition and the agents have a
perfect knowledge of his evaluation
Objective function maximization of total
surplus (the step function it allows the
optimization through linear programming)
Assume a linear behavior between the outputs and
inputs (However, does not mean that production
functions behave in a linear fashion)
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Objective Function (Minimization of Total System
Costs)
NPV net present value of the total
costs ANNCOST Total annual cost d general
discount rate REFYR reference year for
discounting YEARS set of years for which there
are costs (all years in the horizon past years
if costs have been defined for past investments
a number of years after the life time of the
technology if some investment and dismantling
cost are still being incurred, as well as the
Salvage Value

• Discounted sum of the annual costs minus
  revenues
• Investment costs
• Costs for sunk material during construction
  time
• Variable costs
• Fix operating and maintenance costs
• Surveillance costs
• Decommissioning costs
• Taxes
• Subsidies
• Recuperation of sunk material
• Salvage value

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Reference energy system in TIMES_PT
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Base Model Structure Main Sectors
Transports
Refinery, imports and renewable energy
Industry
Electricity
Households, Commercial and Agriculture
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Main Information Sources in TIMES_PT

• General Structure
• Economic Sectors
• Existing Technologies/Processes (aggregation
  level)
• Processes flow
• Technologies
• Standard information
• technologies description (Ex mass balances)
• Stocks (Ex installed capacity)
• Efficiency
• Availability factor
• Input/Output ratio
• Specific Parameters (Ex CHPR)
• Energy Balance
• Demand division
• Load Diagram (timeslices)

NEEDS with minor adjustments/corrections
NEEDS
DGGE National Emissions Inventory INE EDP,
PEGOP, Turbogás, Valorsul, Cogen, EDM, EDA ()
PTEN PNAC Studies and Publications (...)
DGGE Eurostat Energy Balances ADENE (EURECO
Project)
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TIMES_PT Exogenous Inputs
Energy services demand, New energy technologies,
primary energy potential, policy assumptions
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Model Structure Exogenous inputs
GEM-E3 General Equilibrium Model for
Energy-Economy-Environment
TIMES_PT
Inputs
Inputs

• Elasticities of final demands to macroeconomic
  drivers, income (ELASI) and price (ELASP)
• Autonomous efficiency improvement in industry
  (AEEI)
• Base year data (DEM2000)
• Residential Data

• Energy prices
• Primary Energy potential and costs
• New and Existing Technologies
• Policy assumption (e.g. CO2 eq emissions
  restrictions)

• Population growth
• World energy prices
• Technical progress, energy intensity and labour
  productivity evolution
• EU-22 GDP growth target (2 to 2.5)

Residential Demand Generation
Optimization function
GEM-E3

• Energy Scenarios
• Technology profile
• System costs
• Emissions

• Annual Demand (DEM)
• Cement (Mt)
• Paper (Mt)
• Iron Steel (Mt)
• Glass (Mt)
• Pkm (Million Pkm)
• Tkm
• Other Industries (PJ)
• Agriculture (PJ)
• Resid. Space Heating (PJ)
• Resid. Space Cooling (PJ)
• Water Heating (PJ)
• Etc.

• National Macroeconomic Drivers (DRGR)
• GDP growth
• Private consumption as a proxy for disposable
  income
• Sectoral production growth industry, services,
  transports and agriculture.
• PRGR Price Evolution (PRGR)

DEMt Industry, Commercial, Transports and
Agriculture demand generation
Outputs
Outputs
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Generation of energy services demand in the
Residential Sector

• Population growth,
• Evolution of the number of persons per
  household (DGGE)
• Existing Dwelling (base year calibration 2000
  INE)
• Demolishing Rate (INE)
• Existing/New Dwellings Share (INE)

• Temperature Correction for year 2000
• Efficiency Improvement of Insulation of Existing
  Dwellings (NEEDS) 1 per year
• Cooling target (3 in 2000 to 50 in 2050
  (INETI)
• Number of persons per household in 2000 (INE)

Existing Dwellings
Heat Demand
New Dwellings
Cooling Demand
Hot Water Demand
Total Heat/Cooling/Hot Water Demand

• Heat/Cooling/Hot Water Demand per Dwelling

• Number of Existing/ New Dwellings

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GEM-E3 inputs

• World energy prices (2000/GJ)

Import price 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
crude oil 6,51 5,38 5,41 5,79 6,56 6,94 7,01 7,08 7,15 7,23
natural gas 3,65 4,09 4,13 4,46 5,17 5,39 5,45 5,50 5,56 5,61
coal 1,60 1,51 1,61 1,70 1,76 1,80 1,81 1,82 1,83 1,84
Source DGTREN, EU
Population
Index(2000100)
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GEM-E3 outputs Macroeconomic Drivers
GDP
Private Consumption
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National Base Scenario associated with the
Social Security Sustainability Report of the
National State Budge for 2007 EPC Base Scenario
corresponds to the basic hypotheses defined in
the Aging Group of Work, a sub-committee of the
Economical Politics Committee (EPC) that assists
the ECOFIN (European Commission). DPP MAOTDR
reference scenario used in the update of the
mid-term evaluation of the macroeconomic impact
of the Community Support Framework III
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Demand Growth
year (2005-2010 / 2010-2030)
Space Cool. (4,5 / 3,9)
Glass (2,5 / 1,9)
tkm (2,6 / 1,8)
Clinker (2,0 / 1,5)
Pulp (1,6 / 1,0)
Iron Steel (1,0 / 0,3)
Water Heat (1,1 / 0,5)
pkm (0,7 / 0,4)
Space Heat (0,8 / 0,5)
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Clinker, Pulp, Glass, Iron Steel Demand
Clinker
Pulp
1,5
1,0
2,0
1,6
Iron Steel
Glass
0,3
1,0
1,9
2,5
Source Industrials Association of container
glass, Saint-Gobain (flat glass) and 2000 data
from Statistic National Institute (INE)
2000 values from NIR
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Energy Prices in TIMES_PT
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
All energy prices are tax free
Oil
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Primary Energy Potentials in TIMES_PT
2000 2030 Reference Non Energy Extr. costs (/GJ) (VIEWLS project)
Wood Products (PJ) 71.7 100 (28) Assumed a maximum growth 30 of 2000 capacity 4.89
Biogas (PJ) 0.1 29 (100) GPPAA Extrapolation of PNAC Waste Scenarios 32.85
Crops for Biofuel (PJ) 0.0 15 (100) Extrapolation of Renewable Energy Portugal Forum 1.30
Biofuel production (PJ) 0.0 50 (100) Best guess based on 2008 expected installed capacity 28.50
Municipal Waste (PJ) 7.3 10 (27) Extrapolation of PNAC Waste scenarios 5.81
Industrial Waste Sludge (PJ) 0.0 2 (100) Best guess 5.81
Hydro (PJ) 40.2 50 (20) Assumed a maximum growth of 20 of 2000 capacity 0.00
Wind onshore (GW) 0.6 5 (98) Conservative assumption based on REN 0.00
Wind offshore (GW) 0.0 2 (100) Best guess 0.00
Solar- heating (PJ) 0.8 38 (98) Extrapolation of Renewable Energy in Portugal Forum 0.00
Solar-electricity generation (GW) 0.0 2 (100) Best guess 0.00
Geothermal (PJ) 0.6 8 (93) Extrapolation of Renewable Energy Portugal Forum 0.00
Waves (GW) 0.0 5 (100) Cruz, J., Sarmento, A. (2004). Energia das Ondas 0.00
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New Technologies Characterization - Costs
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New Technologies Characterization Total costs
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TIMES_PT Calibration for base year 2000
Electricity Generation
Industry
Commercial Households
Transports Agriculture
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Energy Scenarios 2000 - 2030

• Base Scenario
• Renewable Energy Scenario
• Kyoto Scenario

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TIMES_PT Scenarios - main policy assumption
Base Scenario Renewable Energy Scenario Kyoto Scenario
CO2 eq. emissions restrictions ? (27 above 1990 levels in 2010-2030)
Min. 39 of the electricity consumed in 2010 is from renewable sources ? ?
Biofuel targets for 2010 (5.75) ? ? ?
Minimum use of Municipal Waste Wood Waste ? ? ?
Use existing natural gas power plants at least new 200 MW in 2010-2030 ? ? ?
No new Coal Power Plants before 2015 no increase in coal in final sectors ? ? ?
Nuclear is not an option ? ? ?
Limited electricity imports (100 2005) and exports (100 2000) Limited coal imports (20 2000) ? ? ?
Limits on CHP (centralised 14 in 2030 industry 40 in 2020) ? ? ?
No carbon sinks No credits from Kyoto mechanisms ? ? ?
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Primary Energy Consumption
2000 2010
2020
2030
17 gt 2000
16 gt 2000
6 gt 2000
5 gt 2000
0 2000
-9 lt 2000
84
86
88
88
88
83
74
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Total Final Energy Consumption
2000 2010
2020
2030
10 gt 2000
17 gt 2000
16 gt 2000
14 gt 2000
17
18
25
17
17
23
17
67
63
66
61
64
67
57
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TIMES_PT GHG Energy Process Emissions

PNAC High Ref Scenario
81 (above 1990)

79 (above 1990)
PNAC Low Ref Scenario

27 (above 1990)
GHG per capita and GHG/GDP 2000 2010 2030 2000-2010 2010-2030
Base 6.4 532 6.5 431 7.6 318 ton CO2eq/inhab tonCO2eq/M 2 -19 17 -26
Renewables 6.4 532 6.4 422 7.5 314 ton CO2eq/inhab tonCO2eq/M 0 -21 17 -26
Kyoto 6.4 532 5.3 351 5.3 223 ton CO2eq/inhab tonCO2eq/M -17 -34 0 -36
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Total Final Energy Consumption Industry
2000 2010
2020
2030
53 gt 2000
11 gt 2000
31 gt 2000
27 gt 2000
49
35
36
26
26
33
21
54
60
54
47
41
42
31
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Total Final Energy Consumption Commercial
2000 2010
2020
2030
22 gt 2000
11 lt 2000
14
14
3 gt 2000
7
2 gt 2000
-1 lt 2000
4
4
5
43
30
32
25
31
31
25
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Total Final Energy Consumption Residential
2000 2010
2020
2030
5 gt 2000
1 gt 2000
-0.4 lt 2000
-1 lt 2000
-3 lt 2000
19
19
19
25
25
25
39
45
47
45
44
45
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31
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Residential Space Heating in 2020Technologies
Profile
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Net Electricity Generation
2000 2010
2020
2030
45 gt 2000
30 gt 2000
20 gt 2000
9 gt 2000
5 gt 2000
2 gt 2000
71
60
67
62
59
59
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CHP not considered
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Main Electricity Generation Technologies Profile
2020
CHP Coal
CHP Wood
Wind
CCNG
Hydro
CHP Ex
CHPGN
CHP Coal
CCGN
Wind
Hydro
CHP Ex
Coal
CHPGN
Coal
CHP Coal
CCGN
Wind
CHP Ex
Hydro
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Analysis of CO2e Abatement Scenarios for 2030

• Base Scenario
• Kyoto Scenario
• CO2 emission restrictions Scenarios

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GHG Emissions
Base

PNAC High Ref Scenario

PNAC Low Ref Scenario
30
Kyoto
20
10
0
-10
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CO2e Abatement Costs

Kyoto 27
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Electricity Generation Technologies Profile2020
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Next steps in TIMES_PT

• Add elasticities
• Adjust primary energy potentials and extraction
  costs
• Include supply curves for primary energy
• SOx, NOx, TSP, PM10, PM2.5 emission limits
• Include carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms
• Add energy taxes (ISP, VAT)
• Simulation of policy instruments EU ETS,
  renewables feed-in-tariffs, support mechanisms to
  natural gas
• Estimate of sector marginal CO2 abatement costs
  curve
• Next workshop June 2007 Quantification of
  effects of policy instruments in place

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sgcs_at_fct.unl.ptjfcn_at_fct.unl.ptp.fs_at_fct.unl.pt
http//air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/Telf
212 948 300 ext. 10180
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Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente
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Primary Energy Consumption
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Elasticities considered to generated demand

• Price Elasticity (ELASP)
• The price elasticity has been assumed to be -0,3
  for all demand categories with the exception of
• Residential Cooking -0,1
• Commercial Cooking and Commercial Public
  Lighting -0,2

Income Elasticity (ELASI)
Demand Category Demand Category Demand Category lt 2010 2010-2020 2020
Residential Heating Heating 0,5 0,3 0,2
Residential Hot water Hot water 0,8 0,5 0,2
Residential Cooling Cooling 0,8 0,8 0,3
Residential Appliances Appliances 0,8 0,5 0,25
Residential Other Other 0,3 0,3 0,25
Commercial Heating Heating 0,6 0,35 0,2
Commercial Hot water Hot water 0,6 0,4 0,3
Commercial Cooling Cooling 0,5 0,5 0,4
Commercial Appliances Appliances 1,0 0,6 0,6
Commercial Other Other 0,8 0,4 0,4
Industry Energy Intensive Energy Intensive 0,8 0,8 0,8
Industry Other Other 1,0 1,0 1,0
Transport Passeng. Car 1,0 1,0 0,95
Transport Passeng. Public 1,0 1.0 1,0
Transport Freight Road 0,8 0,8 0,8
Transport Freight Rail 0,9 0,9 0,9
Transport Air Air 1,2 1,2 1,0
Transport Navigation Navigation 0,9 0,9 0,9
Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture 0,6 0,5 0,3
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Autonomous Efficiency Improvement in Industry
Demand Category AEEI for the Industrial demand
Ammonia 0
Chlorine 0
Cement 0
Glass Flat 0
Glass Hollow 0
Lime 0
Non Energy Consumption - Others 0
Other Non Ferrous Metals 0,005
Other Chemicals 0,005
High Quality Paper 0,005
Iron and Steel 0,01
Aluminium 0,01
Copper 0,01
Other Non Metallic Minerals 0,01
Low Quality Paper 0,01
Other Industries 0,01
Non Energy Consumption - Chemicals 0,01
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TIMES_PT Policy Assumptions

• Nuclear will not be implemented due to political
  inacceptability
• Electricity generated from gas combined cycle
  power plants at least equivalent to 1100 MW
  installed capacity from 2010-2030 following
  energy sources diversification policy and support
  to use of natural gas
• New coal power plants only from 2015 onwards
  following energy sources diversification policy
  and support to use of natural gas
• Electricity generation from municipal waste will
  continue until 2030 following waste management
  scenarios
• Electricity generation from wood residues will
  continue throughout the lifetime of Mortágua
  plant following forest fire control policies
• In 2010 5.75 of consumed diesel and gasoline in
  transport will be biofuels
• Electricity imports max 60 PJ in 2030 exports
  max 30 PJ in 2030 coal imports max 20 more than
  2000
• Minimum of 1.1 MW wind onshore in 2005 as in fact
  happened
• No dedicated heat power plants all heat will be
  produced with CHP
• Limited centralized CHP (max. 2 of generated
  electricity in 2010 and 14 in 2030) and CHP in
  industry CHP (max 32 in 2001, 38 in 2010 and
  40 in 2020)
• No further penetration of coal in industry,
  residential, commercial and agriculture
• No carbon sinks and no possibility to buy CO2
  reduction credits

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New Technologies Characterization Efficiency
and Availability
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Energy Imports and Exports
Energy Imports and Exports
Electricity Imports and Exports
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TIMES_PT Scenarios - main policy assumption
Base Scenario Kyoto Scenario CO2 emission restrictions Scenarios
CO2 eq. emissions restrictions ? (27 above 1990 levels in 2010-2030) ? (30, 20,10, 0, -10, -20, -30) 1990 levels in 2020-2030
Min. 39 of the electricity consumed in 2010 is from renewable sources ?
Nuclear is not an option ? ? ?
No carbon sinks No credits for Kyoto mechanisms ? ? ?
Limited electricity imports and exports ? ? ?
No new Coal Power Plants before 2015 ? ? ?
New 200 MW Natural Gas Power Plants (in 2010-2030) ? ? ?
Limits on CHP ? ? ?
Biofuel targets for 2010 ? ? ?
Municipal Waste, Wood Residues ? ? ?
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GHG per GDP 1990-2000
GHG per Capita 1990-2000
Tonnes CO2/M2000
Fonte E.Value (2004)
1) PIB p2000
SourceUE
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Total Final Energy Consumption
2000 2010
2020
2030
10 gt 2000
17 gt 2000
16 gt 2000
14 gt 2000
17
18
25
17
17
23
17
67
63
66
61
64
67
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