Multi-Criteria Decision Aide (MCDA) at the Watershed Scale - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Multi-Criteria Decision Aide (MCDA) at the Watershed Scale

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Multi-Criteria Decision Aide (MCDA) at the Watershed Scale ... Environmental (CEv): Impervious surface, IBIs. GOAL. Alternative 1. Alternative 2. Alternative 3 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Multi-Criteria Decision Aide (MCDA) at the Watershed Scale


1
Multi-Criteria Decision Aide (MCDA) at the
Watershed Scale
2
Decisions at the watershed scale are
characterized by
Multiple goals ? Multiple alternatives to meet
goals ? Multiple criteria for alternatives
? Multiple metrics, scale, and time dimensions of
criteria ? Multiple decision-makers with .
. . ? Diverse preferences All within a
decision environment where the only thing that is
certain is CHANGE. How can we structure such
a decision-making process?
3
At the watershed scale, what is the decision to
make?
GOAL
  • Examples
  • Quantitative growth oriented goals
  • Qualitative development oriented goals
  • Specific management or action plans

4
What are the decision alternatives that could
help reach that goal?
  • Examples
  • Business as usual
  • Directed growth policies technical fixes
  • Steady state

5
How do we choose amongst alternatives? What
criteria?
  • Examples
  • Economic (CEc) Employment, income, tax base
  • Social (CSc) Income distribution, landscape
    character
  • Environmental (CEv) Impervious surface, IBIs

6
How do we evaluate these criteria?
Metrics Quantitative, qualitative
Degree of uncertainty Data
availability
Scale Stream site, tax parcel, neighborhood,
sub-catchment, township, catchment,
county, state . . .
Time Stream flow, industry and household
processes, land-use change, policy
change, economic change, government
change . . .
7
How do we arrive at a goal when multiple
perspectives are involved?
  • Examples
  • Equity weights
  • Alliances and consensus building
  • Group process design

8
How do we identify decision-makers preferences
withinand between each criterion?
9
  • Within each criterion
  • Maximize or minimize
  • Absolute or relative preference

10
  • Within each criterion
  • Degree of indifference threshold

11
  • Within each criterion
  • Degree of indifference threshold
  • Degree of preference threshold

12
  • Within each criterion
  • Degree of indifference threshold, AND
  • Degree of preference threshold

13
  • Between criteria
  • Weights

w1 w2 w3 1
14
Outcomes of the MCDA decision process
  • Performance of each alternative by multiple
    criteria

C1
1
C4
C6
0
C2
C5
-1
C3
C7
15
Outcomes of the MCDA decision process
  • Pairwise comparison of alternatives by multiple
    criteria

Alt-1
Alt-2
16
Outcomes of the MCDA decision process
  • Preference ordering of alternatives for each
    individual, and the group as a whole

A2
A3
A1
A5
Partial
A4
A3
A4
A2
A1
A5
Complete
17
Outcomes of the MCDA decision process
  • Simultaneous comparison of criteria and
    alternatives (individual GAIA Plane)

18
Outcomes of the MCDA decision process
  • Simultaneous comparison of decision-makers and
    alternatives (group GAIA Plane)

19
Outcomes of the MCDA decision process
  • Sensitivity analysis walking weights and
    stability intervals

20
Outcomes of the MCDA decision process
  • Shared understanding
  • Coalition and/or consensus building
  • Concrete problem definition
  • Visualization of points and strength of conflict
  • Ample opportunities for revision
  • AND
  • Ranking of decision alternatives
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