Scenarios%20as%20Structured%20Thinking%20about%20the%20Future

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Scenarios asStructured Thinking about the Future

• CSIN Learning Event 25
• 20 June 2007
• Dale S. Rothman
• International Institute for Sustainable
  Development

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Three Questions

• Why do we want to think about the future in a
  structured fashion?
• What does it mean to think about the future in a
  structured fashion?
• What are some difficulties in thinking about the
  future in a structured fashion and how might we
  address them?

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Some Quick Thoughts on the Future

• If a man takes no thought about what is distant,
  he will find sorrow near at hand.
• Confucius, Chinese philosopher reformer (551 BC
  - 479 BC)
• Prediction is very difficult, especially about
  the future.
• Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (1885 - 1962)
• The best way to predict the future is to invent
  it.
• Alan Kay, American computer scientist (1940- )
• is any purpose served by attempting long-term
  perspectives for a region? Yes!!! I say this not
  because the forecasts will necessarily be right,
  but because they may stimulate helpful actions
  actions that may, in fact, even render the
  forecasts wrong.
• Ramgopal Agarwala, Indian economist (?)

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Some Practical Reasons for Thinking about the
Future

• to illuminate potential problems
• to share understanding and concerns
• to uncover assumptions and rigorously test them
• to exploring alternatives in the face of
  uncertainty
• to help identify choices and make decisions

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Why Do We Want to Think about the Future in a
Structured Fashion?

• Relevance of exercise to goals
• Clarity of communication
• what the images of the future are
• how these were developed
• how insights/lessons derived
• Defensibility of insights
• e.g. robustness of actions, relative
  desirability of outcomes

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What Does it Mean to Think about the Future in a
Structured Fashion?

• Be explicit about your purpose
• Be explicit about your object of study (system)
• Strive for coherence and consistency

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What is a Scenario?

• Scenarios have been defined in various ways. For
  the purposes here a scenario is a coherent and
  plausible story, told in words and/or numbers,
  about a possible future for a specified
  socio-ecological system. A scenario will
  generally include
• a definition of the system and problem
  boundaries
• a characterization of current conditions and
  trends and the processes driving change in the
  system
• an identification of the key driving forces,
  critical uncertainties, and system relationships
• a coherent and internally consistent set of
  assumptions about driving forces, critical
  uncertainties, and system relationships
• conditional projections of the behaviour of the
  system based on these assumptions on the rest of
  the system and
• an image of the future.

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What Scenarios are Not

• It is now generally accepted that scenarios do
  not predict. Rather, they paint pictures of
  possible futures and explore the differing
  outcomes that might result if basic assumptions
  are changed. (UNEP, 2002)

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Scenarios from a Policy Perspective (I)

• Are there existing or proposed policies you wish
  to explore?
• Is there a preconceived end vision, or at least
  some aspects of a vision, i.e., specific targets?
• Are the effects of a policy of such magnitude
  that they would fundamentally alter the basic
  structure of the scenario?

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Scenarios from a Policy Perspective (II)
Case Existing Policies? Preconceived end vision? Policies determine the scenario? Potential Uses
A Test ability of policy to create conditions for success.
B Test the extent to which the policy can affect change.
C Explore role of policy in determining nature of future.
D Explore effects of policies under fixed conditions.
E Identify policies that can create conditions for success.
F Identify policies that can meet specific targets.
G Identify policies that may influence the future.
H Identify policies and their implications.
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Archetypes of Scenario Analysis for Policy
Purpose of analysis Question
Policy optimization What policy variant is most effective, cost efficient, fast, acceptable, etc.?
Advocacy, vision building What are positive futures we want to move toward? What are negative changes we want to stay away from?
Strategic orientation For what alternative worlds do we need to prepare ourselves? What if our current assumptions were wrong? What would be robust strategies?
From presentation by Jan Bakkes (MNP) at Consultative Scoping Workshop on an Environment Outlook for Canada held on 1-2 March 2007 in Montreal. From presentation by Jan Bakkes (MNP) at Consultative Scoping Workshop on an Environment Outlook for Canada held on 1-2 March 2007 in Montreal.
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Be Clear and Be Focused

• UNEPs 4th Global Environment Outlook
• What are the likely future consequences for
  environment and human well being of existing
  environment and environmentally relevant policies
  and actions?
• What are the likely future consequences for
  environment and human well being of environment
  and environmentally relevant policies and choices
  that may be taken in the future?
• What are the likely future environmental trends?
• What are the likely consequences of the various
  policy options and choices for the environment
  under various scenarios?
• What are the likely impacts or effects of
  promising opportunities for policy innovations on
  the interaction between environment and society?
• How would the various policy and technology
  trade-offs between different environmental
  challenges affect the interaction between
  environment and society and what is the role of
  society and enterprises in helping to shape the
  environment in the future?

• Manitoba Hydro
• Under plausible scenarios of climate change, how
  might MB Hydro need to adapt its resource
  planning criteria and operational strategies to
  continue to meet its corporate goals?

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But Dont Be Narrow
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What Makes it Difficult to Think about the Future
in a Structured Fashion?

• Ignorance Our understanding is limited
• Surprise The unexpected and the novel
• Volition Human choice matters

Human beings are rarely passive witnesses of
threatening situations. Their responses to
threats may be unwise, but they inevitably alter
the course of events and make mockery of any
attempt to predict the future from extrapolation
of existing trends. René Dubos
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Steps in a Scenario Methodology
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Tell the Story of the Present(Define driving
forces and important themes)

• How would you describe the region, both its past
  and present?
• What are key characteristics of the region
  geography, politics, culture, natural
  environment, institutions?
• Who are the important actors?
• What is the relation of the region to the outside
  world?

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Identify the Issues for the Future(Identify and
prioritize critical uncertainties and big
questions)

• What are the most important questions being asked
  about the region today?
• What do we know with certainty about the future?
• What do we not know with certainty about the
  future?
• Of those things we do not know, which are the
  most important?

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Goals of Scenario Analysis

• Process
• Synthesis of lay and expert input
• Synthesis of participatory processes and desk
  studies
• Synthesis of qualitative narrative and
  quantitative underpinning
• Product(s)
• Consistent
• Coherent
• Integrated
• Thought-provoking
• Compelling
• Outcome(s)
• More flexible mental maps
• Relevant insights

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What Scenarios Can Be

• A means for enhancing action-related domains of
  discourse
• Carlo Jaeger