Variability of the American Monsoon Systems VAMOS

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Variability of the American Monsoon
Systems(VAMOS)
2001 VAMOS is based on two internationally
coordinated monsoon experiments MESA in South
America and NAME in North America.
2009 The term "monsoon system" encompasses not
only the summer monsoon rainfall in the tropical
Americas, but also the perturbations in the
planetary, synoptic and mesoscale flow patterns
that occur in association with it, including
those in the winter hemisphere. The region of
interest covers both the tropical and the
extratropical Americas and surrounding oceans.
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VAMOS (2009) Four Complementary Science
Programs North American Monsoon Experiment
(NAME) Monsoon Experiment for South America
(MESA) VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study
(VOCALS) Inter-Americas Study of Climate
Processes (IASCLIP)

• Cross-cuts
• Modeling
• Extremes
• Anthropogenic Climate Change
• CLIVAR and GEWEX endorsed activity
• La Plata Basin Regional Hydroclimate Project

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• Outline
• - VAMOS internal structure
• - IASCLIP
• VOCALS
• NAME Legacy
• MESA Progress
• - Cross-cut working groups
• Extremes
• ACC
• Modeling (presented at earlier meetings)
• - LPB Research Networks

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VAMOS The annual cycle of convection over the
Americas
IASCLIP Links IASCLIPNAME Great Plains
Precipitation IASCLIP-VOCALS Boreal summer
circulation IASCLIP-MESA Boreal winter
circulation
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IASCLIP The Atlantic Warm Pool
Question/issue How much skill do the
state-of-the-art CGCMs have for simulating the
AWP?
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Tornado Activity and Moisture Transport from the
AWP
March to May (MAM) of 1950-2007
Moisture transport from the AWP
Is it possible for model bias in the AWP to
affect model error over other regions (e.g., S.
E. Pacific)?
Rainfall
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Upper level circulations associated with the IAS
VOCALS - IASCLIP
MESA - IASCLIP
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GOALS of VOCALS Improved understanding and
regional/global model representation of aerosol
indirect effects over the SEP. Elimination of
CGCM systematic errors in the SEP, and improved
model simulations of the coupled system in the
region and global impacts of its
variability.www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/vocals
23 Universities 20 Research Institutions 6
Operational centers
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VOCALS Activities

• The VOCALS Regional Experiment (REx) was
  completed off the Chilean Coast in Oct-Nov 2008
• SWG meeting Arica, Chile, November 4-5, 2008
• VOCALS Session at AMS Annual Meeting, January
  2009
• A four-part report with Rex information put in
  VOCALS web site (www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/vocal
  s )
• General Meeting of UK-VOCALS 9 June 2009,
  Reading, England
• Second VOCALS Meeting 12-14 July 2009, Seattle,
  Washington
• Proposals for VOCALS session in Spring AGU are
  under preparation
• Data analysis and modeling continues in several
  centers.

(See slides at the end of this presentation)
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VAMOS Extremes Task Force co-chaired by Lisa
Goddard and Jean-Philippe Boulanger
Taking advantage of USCLIVAR drought studies to
expand analysis to the Americas

• a) Climatology
• b) Pacific SSTAs wPnA, cPnA
• c) Atlantic SSTAs nPwA, nPcA,
• d) Combined SSTAs cPcA, cPwA, wPcA,wPwA
• Models GFS/NCEP, GFDL and NSIPP, CCM3, CCM3.5

Schubert et al, 2009
VAMOS will consider its continental perspective
in linking extremes in warm season climate
behavior to the circulation structures defined as
the monsoon systems.
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The VAMOS Extremes Task Force considered (1)
Issues that are coherent across VAMOS program
areas, (2) Aspects of extremes that can be
somewhat unique to VAMOS, and (3) How to
capitalize on existing and on-going efforts
within the climate community (e.g., USCLIVAR
CEOP). (4) Social impact of extremes seeking
to quantify the cost of specific extreme events
This perspective should consider a multi-scale
approach to understanding the subtle interplay of
processes occurring at different space and time
scales within monsoon systems, such as terrain
heating, vegetation-atmosphere coupling, land-sea
breezes, regional moisture flux patterns,
synoptic disturbances and teleconnections.
A document was prepared and is available
at http//www.clivar.org/organization/vamos/Publi
cations/vamos_extremes_21jul08.pdf
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In the climate change context, there is a need to
identify and understand important processes that
control monsoonal climates in the Americas, their
variability and changes, and how these processes
interact with broader societal issues, such as
impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.

• Challenges
• Assessment of GCM model performance and
  uncertainties
• Improvement of the simulation and understanding
  of major
• tropical and monsoon-related modes of
  variability
• Investigation of the role of aerosols, land
  cover and land
• use on the radiative balance and
  hydrological processes
• Development of detection and attribution
  studies
• Regional climate downscaling for integrated
  assessments
• of climate change

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Regional impact assessment studies

• Basic Needs
• Observations of sufficient detail and scope
  are required to improve validation, models and
  model ensembles and to ensure that
  monsoon-related processes can be adequately
  elucidated, predicted and projected
• Improve or create regional databases that
  include observations, GCM model simulations, and
  regional downscaling simulations at daily and
  monthly timescales of the American monsoon
  regions

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CLARIS LPB A Europe-South America Network for
Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in
La Plata Basin - 10 countries, 20 institutions -
Subproject 2 Past and future hydroclimate
Subproject 4 Socio-economic scenarios and
adaptation/ prevention strategies
Courtesy of Anna Sorensson
WP3 Improving our description of recent past
climate variability in La Plata Basin WP4
Hydroclimate past and future low-frequency
variability, trends and shifts WP5 Regional
Climate Change assessments for La Plata Basin
WP6 Processes and future evolution of extreme
climate events in La Plata Basin WP8 Land use
change, agriculture and socio-economic
implications WP9 Water resources in La Plata
Basin in the context of climate change
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Cooperative Research network The Impact of Land
Cover and Land Use Changes on the Hydroclimate of
the La Plata Basin

• Assess the impact of LCLU changes on the
  hydroclimate of the La Plata Basin, and the
  physical mechanisms by which the impacts take
  effect.
• Investigate the role of LCLU changes in the
  intensity and length of extreme events (floods
  and droughts).
• Investigate the potential changes in the
  hydrological character (soil moisture,
  infiltration, and runoff) of the La Plata Basin
  due to the changes in LCLU.
• Evaluate yield forecasts based on the combination
  of climate regional circulation models with crop
  models
• CAPACITY BUILDING Itaipu, Nov 2009.

Participants Univ Maryland (US) Univ Washington
(US) NASA (US) Univ Florida (US) Univ Miami
(US) Univ Almeria (SP) INPE/CPTEC (BR) Univ San
Luis (AR) Univ Catol Asuncion (PY) U Passo Fundo
(BR) Univ Sao Paulo (BR) U Buenos Aires/Agronomy
(AR) UBA/Sociology (AR) CIMA (AR)
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In summary Promote communications between
science components, Cross-cuts, Research networks
Thanks
Following this slide, information is available on
NAME Legacy ACC in MESA VOCALS Rex IASCLIP
motivation Status of VAMOS Modeling
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The North American Monsoon Experiment Update on
2008-2009 Activities

• Establishment and launch of the NAME Forecast
  Forum as a means of tracking climate model
  forecasts of NAM rainfall. Publication accepted
  by Eos. (D. Gochis, J. Schemm, W. Shi)
• Completion of NAMAP-II (model assessment) effort
  and submission of manuscript to J. Climate (D.
  Gutzler et al.)
• Establishment of a Boarder Climate Summary as a
  stakeholder climate information publication (G.
  Garfin et al.)
• Development of a bias-corrected dataset for
  NAME-2004 sounding data (P. Ciesielski and D.
  Johnson)
• WMO/WWRP book chapter on progress in NAM research
  and predictions (D. Gochis and H. Berbery)
• Continued field research into land-atmosphere
  coupling in NW Mexico (E. Vivoni and C. Watts)
• Continued development of a regional observing
  system design for the NAM (NAME SWG)

D. Gochis, May 13, 2009
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The North American Monsoon Experiment Legacy
Items

• NAME Program Successes
• Clear documentation of the diurnal cycle of
  clouds and precipitation as functions of regional
  physiography (over terrain, land-sea interface,
  open water, etc)
• Improved characterization of the regional
  circulation and moisture transport mechanisms
  within the core monsoon region
• Baseline characterization of many
  land-ocean-atmosphere exchanges
• Assessment of many remotely sensed products (e.g.
  satellite QPE, land cover, soil moisture) over
  the NAM region
• Recognition of the NAM as a weakly-forced system
  and we now have a much improved depiction of
  numerous intra-seasonal modes of variability
  (TEW, surges, inverted troughs, mid-latitude
  fronts, MJO, tropical storms)
• Outstanding Questions and Remaining Challenges
• Diagnostics
• Coupling between seasonal (IAV) and
  intra-seasonal modes of variability
• Significant uncertainty in the distribution and
  scale-aggregation impacts of land-surface fluxes
  (incl. antecedent conditions, moisture recycling)
  on NAM rainfall
• Long term trend analysis of many key
  hydroclimatic variables
• Predictions
• Clear lack of predictability of many large-scale
  modes for long-lead pred.
• Need for improved downscaling methods for
  improved short-lead seasonal and medium range
  predictions
• Resolve the failure of free running coupled
  OAGCMs to realistically represent key features of
  the NAM hydroclimate
• Develop a process-based consensus on climate
  change impacts on NAM

D. Gochis, May 13, 2009
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IASCLIP The Atlantic Warm Pool
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Tornado Activity and Moisture Transport from the
AWP
Composites of anomalous moisture transport
conv. for upper quartile of March-June tornados
in Midwest
March to May (MAM) of 1950-2007
Moisture transport from the AWP
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Question/isssue How much skill do the
state-of-the-art CGCMs have for simulating the
AWP?
From S.-K. Lee
Rainfall Coupled minus Uncoupled
Rainfall Uncoupled minus Observation
Rainfall Coupled minus Observation
SST Coupled minus Observation
Summer (JJA) precipitation bias over the AWP
region - AGCM too much precipitation. -
CGCM too little precipitation (associated with a
cold SST bias -2oC).
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Is it possible for model bias in the AWP to
affect model error over the S. E. Pacific?
Atlantic warm pool (AWP)
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AWP has an inter-hemispheric influence on the
southeast Pacific
Vertical Pressure Velocity at 500 mb during JJA
Anomalous subsidence
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Summary

• During the boreal summer, a strong Hadley
  circulation emanates from the AWP, forks into the
  SE Pacific region, and maintains the subsidence
  over the SE Pacific.
• Anomalously large (small) AWP strengthens
  (weakens) the summer Hadley circulation and thus
  enhances (suppresses) the subsidence over the SE
  Pacific.
• It implies that numerical models need to
  correctly simulate AWP variability in order to
  reduce model biases in the SE Pacific.

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VAMOS and Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC)
Observed trends in surface temperature over the
period 19732002. Plus (minus) symbols mark
individual grid boxes where the observed trends
are significantly larger (smaller) than zero at
the 95 level using a one-sided test. Above each
map is the fraction of grid boxes with
significant warming trends and, in brackets, the
possible range of fractions that could occur due
to natural internal climate variability. The
HadCM2 control simulation has been used to
provide the estimate of the internal variability
of the trends. (From Karoly and Wu, 2005).
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VAMOS and Anthropogenic Climate Change Future
projections of potential vegetation changes in
IPCC AR4 models
Projected distribution of natural biomes in South
America for 20902099 from 15 IPCC AR4 AOGCMs for
the A2 emissions scenarios. The top left plot
represents the current potential biomes (they
represent the potential biomes, but not the
actual vegetation distribution, which is a result
of historical land use and land cover change.
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VAMOS and Anthropogenic Climate Change Possible
mechanism of Amazon die back and savannization of
Amazonia
Simplified mechanism of the Amazon die back and
possible impacts on regional climate
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Increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall
events for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-90 in
western Amazonia and southern Brazil-Northern
ArgentinaIncrease in the frequency of
consecutive dry days in eastern Amazonia,
Northeast Brazil and the SAMS region, as
projected by the HadRM3P regional model for the
A2 scenario.
VAMOS and Extremes Future projections of dry
spells and intense rainfall events in SAMS region
A2-CDD-Consecutive dry days
A2-R10-days com rainfall above 10 mm
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TN90
VAMOS and Extremes Observed and simulated
trends of warm nights, intense rainfall and dry
spells in the LPB region CLARIS and CLARIS-LPB
Times series of observed and simulated TN90 (warm
nights), R10 (intense rainfall events) and CDD
(consecutive dry days) indices during 1960-2000
in the LA Plata Bain region of southeastern South
America.
1990
1995
2000
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
R10
Days
Days
1990
1995
2000
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
CDD
Days
1990
1995
2000
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
CDD
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GOALS of VOCALS Elimination of CGCM systematic
errors in the SEP, and improved model simulations
of the coupled system in the region and global
impacts of its variability.Improved
understanding and regional/global model
representation of aerosol indirect effects over
the SEP.www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/vocals
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Operational CentersBMRC AustraliaCPTEC Brazil
ECMWF Int. JMA Japan MetOffice UK NCEP US
Institutions Collaborating in VOCALS
Universities Arizona Arizona State California
Los Angeles California Irvine California San
Diego California Santa Cruz Chile,
Chile Concepción, Chile Colorado Boulder Colorado
State Drexel Hawaii Iowa Leeds, UK Manchester,
UK Miami N. Andres Bello, Chile Naval Post.
School North Carolina State Oregon State Purdue
Reading, UK Washington Wyoming
Research Institutions Brookhaven Nat.
COLA CNRM/GAME France CNRS/LMD France IMARPE
Peru Inst. Geofísico del Peru IPRC JISAO LEGOS LOC
EAN France NASA/GSFC NCAR NCAS, UK NOAA/ESRL
NOAA/GFDL NOAA PMEL NRL Pacific
Northwest Scripps Woods Hole
Logistic Support UCAR JOSS
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MODELING Operational Centers, Reseach
Institutions, Universities
VOCALS Strategy
AIRBORNE NCAR C130 DOE EG-1 CIRPAS
Twin Otter UK146 NERC Dornier 228
SHIP RV Ron Brown RV Jose Olaya
REx
The VOCALS Regional Experiment (Rex) took place
in October-November 2008
Monitoring Buoys, Satellites, Cruises
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Preliminary Results - Ron Brown Coastal
Upwelling Region and source of Eddies Figure
shows an underway CTD section up to the coast of
Chile.
Boundary current with same properties as the
eddies core
Cyclonic Eddy with a warm salty sub-surface core
Upwelling of fresh and cold waters of subpolar
origin to the surface
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VOCALS-Peru (Jose Olaya)
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RF04 C-130 Mission 10/23
Aerosol Mass Spectrometry Preliminary Data
Sulfate mass gradient between coast and buoy
consistent with gradient in accumulation mode
number and associated cloud droplet
concentrations. Enhanced organics (green)
suggest biomass burning aloft.
Coastal Pollution
Coastal Pollution
Buoy 20S 85W
Alpha 20S 72W
Alpha 20S 72W
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The Modeling Plan from VAMOS Status
Presented at previous meeting with very positive
reviews Future activities Coordinate the
VAMOS modeling activities with with
modeling groups, particularly WGSIP and WGCM