Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progr

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Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic CanadaIndice
de progrès véritable - AtlantiqueMEASURING
COMMUNITY WELLBEINGNelson, New Zealand, May
24, 2006
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What kind of Nelson/Tasman are we leaving our
children...?
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... In experience and language of ordinary New
Zealanders

• New Zealands premier quality of life
• More possessions, longer lives
• But, defining wellbeing more broadly Some
  disturbing signs

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Warning Signals Determinants of Wellbeing

• Higher stress rates, obesity, childhood asthma,
  environmental illness, infectious
• Insecurity - safety, livelihood
• Greater inequality child poverty
• Decline of volunteerism
• Natural resource depletion, species loss (e.g.
  kiwi decline of ¼ in last six years)
• Global warming

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The more the economy grows, the better off we
are - Sending the wrong message?
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The Big Myth Healthy Economy Healthy Society

• More equals better? (health language)
• Resource depletion as economic gain
• More consumption, energy use, greenhouse gas
  emissions, make economy grow, but are we better
  off?
• Need for new indicators to be more than add-ons
  but to challenge existing misleading messages.
  Therefore.

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Current measures of progress send the wrong
messages

• Crime, sickness, pollution, make economy grow
  just because money is being spent.
• GDP can grow even as poverty and inequality
  increase.
• More work hours make economy grow free time has
  no value affects health
• GDP ignores work that contributes directly to
  community health (volunteers, work in home)

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Economic growth as indicator in Tasman, GDP in
Nelson?

• Kuznets warning 60 years ago
• Using quantity to measure quality
• Using input to measure outcome
• New indicators not designed to replace GDP but to
  replace its misuse as measure of wellbeing and
  progress

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Generating Wealth

• GDP input. What are the outcomes we want?
  E.g. Adequate living standards, decent jobs vs
  jobless growth
• GPI not opposed to growth but asks what is
  growing. Socially and environmentally responsible
  devt. E.g. Denmark, fair trade coffee, Dow
  GHGs
• See Good News for a Change 2005 conf.

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Why We Need New Indicators - Policy Reasons

• Economic growth better off sends misleading
  signals to policy-makers and local communities
• Vital social, environmental assets ignored
• Preventive initiatives to conserve and use
  resources sustainably, to reduce poverty,
  sickness and greenhouse gas emissions, are
  blunted and inadequately funded

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Indicators are Powerful

• What we measure
• reflects what we value as a society
• determines what makes it onto the policy
  agenda
• influences behaviour (eg students)

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A good set of indicators can help communities

• foster common vision and purpose
• identify strengths and weaknesses
• change public behaviour
• hold leaders accountable at election time
• initiate actions to promote wellbeing

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GPI Atlantic was founded to address that need

• Non-profit, fully independent research group
  founded April, 1997
• Located Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. Web site
  www.gpiatlantic.org
• Core of 10 researchers, academics, experts
  12-person board of directors

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Measuring Wellbeing. In the GPI

• Health, free time, unpaid work (voluntary and
  household), and education have value
• Sickness, crime, disasters, pollution are costs
• Natural resources (eg forests) are capital assets
• Reductions in greenhouse gas, crime, poverty,
  ecological footprint are progress
• Growing equity signals progress
• No bottom line (eg air quality Auckland/Christchur
  ch)

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NZ on the leading edge

• Marilyn Warings pioneering work
• Quality of Life in NZs 12 Largest Cities
• Monitoring Progress Towards a Sustainable NZ
• Social Reports (MSD)
• Tomorrows Manukau A vision into the future
• Local Government Act 2002

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Natural environment
Society
Economy
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Values, elements of wellbeing

• Health
• Security
• Knowledge
• Community
• Freedom
• Ecological integrity
• Equity ( lit. review)

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Outcome domains in the new Canadian Index of
Wellbeing

• Standard of living
• Time use (and balance)
• Healthy populace
• Educated populace
• Community vitality
• Ecosystem services
• Governance

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E.g. Full Cost Accounting

• Basic Principles and challenges
• Expanded definition of capital Natural, human,
  social, cultural, produced capital, but no common
  metric for measurement
• External -gt internal benefits and costs
• Price non-market benefits and costs
• Fixed -gt variable costs
• Strengths Enhances market efficiency, reduces
  needs for govt. regulation, provides more
  accurate, comprehensive information

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Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index 22 Components
Natural Capital

• Soils and Agriculture
• Forests
• Marine Environment/Fisheries
• Water Resources / Water Quality
• Nonrenewable Subsoil Assets

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Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index Twenty-two
Components Environment

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Sustainable Transportation
• Ecological Footprint Analysis
• Air Quality
• Solid Waste

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Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index Twenty-two
Components Time Use

• Value of Civic and Voluntary Work
• Value of Unpaid Housework Childcare
• Work Time and Underemployment
• Value of Leisure Time
• Marilyn Warings pioneering work paved way

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Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index Twenty-two
Components Social Capital/Socioeconomic

• Health
• Educational Attainment
• Income Distribution, Debts and Assets
• Livelihood Security
• Costs of Crime
• Good Governance

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Examples of GPI Results e.g. Valuing Voluntary
Work

• Canadians contribute 3.4 billion hours of
  voluntary work per year equivalent of 1.8
  million FTE jobs (economic add-on)
• Services worth 53.2 billion / year, invisible in
  our conventional measures of progress
• 1990s voluntary work down 12.3 - time stress
• Canadians lose 6 billion in volunteer services

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Valuing a Healthy Population

• GPI Population Health Reports include
• Cost of Chronic Illness in Canada (focus on
  preventable portion)
• Womens Health in Atlantic Canada
• Income, Health and Disease in Canada Equity and
  Disease in Atlantic Canada
• Costs of Tobacco, Obesity, Physical Inactivity
• Cost of HIV/AIDS in Canada
• Economic Impact of Smoke-Free Workplaces
• Value of Care-giving

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Costs of Chronic Disease

• 60 medical costs 1.2 billion / year
• 76 disability costs 900 million
• 78 premature death costs 900 million
• 70 total burden of illness 3 billion
  13 GDP
  

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Cost of Chronic Illness in Nova Scotia 1998
(2001 million)
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What Portion is Preventable? Excess Risk Factors
Account for

• 40 chronic disease
• 50 chronic disease mortality
• 25 medical care costs 500 mill./yr
• 38 total burden of disease 1.8 bill.
  (includes direct and indirect costs)

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Excess Risk Factors Account for ( economic
burden of disease)

• Tobacco 10
• Physical Inactivity 7
• Obesity 5.5
• High blood pressure 5
• Lack fruits/vegetables 3
• High blood cholesterol 2.5
• Alcohol 2

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Costs of Key Risk Factors, Nova Scotia (2001
millions)
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Cost-Effective Interventions

• - School-based smoking prevention At least
  101
• WIC - 31
• Counselling pregnant women (LBW) - 51
• Workplace 2 1 etc

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Health Costs of Poverty

• Most reliable predictor of poor health, premature
  death, disability 4x more likely report fair or
  poor health costly
• e.g. (1) Increased hospitalization Men
  15-39 46 40-64 57 Women 15-39 62
  40-64 92

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Heart Health Costs of Poverty

• Higher risk smoking, obesity, physical
  inactivity, cardiovascular risk costly
• York U 6,366 Canadian deaths 4 billion health
  care costs / year are attributable to
  poverty-related heart disease
• NS could avoid 200 deaths, 124 million per year
  if all Nova Scotians were as heart healthy as
  higher income groups

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Health Cost of Inequality

• British Medical Journal What matters in
  determining mortality and health is less the
  overall wealth of the society and more how evenly
  wealth is distributed. The more equally wealth is
  distributed, the better the health of that
  society.
• e.g. Sweden, Japan vs USA

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Costs of Socioeconomic Inequality in Nova Scotia

• Use of physician services (Kephart)
• No high school 49 than degree
• High school diploma 12 more
• Lower income 43 than higher
• Lower middle income 33 more

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Excess Physician Use (small fraction total
costs)

• Educational inequality 42.2 million
  17.4 of total
• Income inequality 27.5 million
  11.3
• costs avoided if all Nova Scotians were as
  healthy as higher income / university

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Valuing Equity GDP tells us how much income,
not how income shared
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Global, equity dimensions

• 20 of worlds people in highest-income countries
  account for 86 of consumption spending. Poorest
  20 account for 1.3
• Richest 20 consume 45 of all meat and fish,
  poorest 20 consume just 5
• Richest 20 58 of total energy, poorest 20
  lt4
• Richest 20 84 of paper, poorest 20 1.1
• Richest 20 87 of world's vehicle fleet, the
  poorest 20 lt1

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Translation to Behaviour e.g. Estimated
Transportation Footprint, NS 1985-2025
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Reduction in Commuting Footprint
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Valuing Natural Resource Health

• For example, a healthy forest effectively
• Prevents soil erosion/sediment control
• Protects watersheds
• Regulates climate regulation/sequesters carbon
• Provides habitat for wildlife / biodiversity
• Supports recreation, tourism, aesthetic quality
• Provides timber

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Volume 2, Figure 18
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Provincial area (hectares) of clearcut harvest
and silviculture (000s seedlings), Nova Scotia
1975-1997
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Natural Age Limits Maritime tree species

• White Ash 100-200
• American Beech 300-400
• White Birch 120-150
• Yellow Birch 150-250
• Eastn Hemlock 300-800
• Red Maple 100-150
• Sugar Maple 300-400

• Red Oak 200-350
• Red Pine 200-250
• White Pine 200-450
• Black Spruce 200-250
• Red Spruce 250-400
• White Spruce 150-200

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Forest Area by Age Class, NS 1958-99
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Volume 1, Figure 2
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Volume 1, Figure 4
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Volume 1, Figure 5
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Volume 1, Figure 6
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Volume 1, Figure 3
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Old Forests Store More Carbon A new study
published in Science, reported that ...
replacing old-growth forest by young Kyoto stands
... will lead to massive carbon losses to the
atmosphere mainly by replacing a large pool with
a minute pool of regrowth and by reducing the
flux into a permanent pool of soil organic
matter. (Schulze et. al. 2000) Nova Scotia
forests have lost 1.3 billion in carbon storage
value since 1958
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Changes in Atlantic Bird Species Populations
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Recreational Brook Trout Caught and Retained in
Nova Scotia 1975-1995
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The Economic Dimension e.g. Angling Cost Per
Fish, Nova Scotia 1975-95 (1997)
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Valuation of Non-Timber Forest Ecosystem Goods
and Services in NS (Costanza, replacement values)
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Volume 1, Figure 32
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Volume 2, Figure 17
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The Job Creation Potential of Value-Added Wood
Industries Full-Time Jobs Theoretically Created
with Set Volume of WoodVolume 2, Table 32
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U.S. Employment Created by Various Timber
ProductsVolume 1, Table 12
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Examples of Retail Prices for Varying Dimension
White Pine (Jan. 2001 prices)Volume 2, Table 29
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Examples of Retail Prices for Varying Dimension
Spruce (Jan. 2001 prices)
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Retail Prices for Clear vs. Knotty White Pine
(Jan. 2001 prices)
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Machinery Costs for Large-Scale Harvesting
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CONCLUSION Clearcut harvesting and loss of
natural age and species diversity have resulted
in loss of

• valuable species
• wide diameter and clear lumber that fetch premium
  market prices
• resilience and resistance to insect infestation
• wildlife habitat, decreasing populations of
  birds
• forest recreation values - impact nature tourism

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This represents a substantial depreciation of a
valuable natural capital asset

• a decline in forested watershed protection and a
  50 drop in shade-dependent brook trout
• soil degradation and the leaching of nutrients
  that can affect future timber productivity
• a substantial decline in carbon storage capacity
  and an increase in biomass carbon loss
• a decline in other essential forest ecosystem
  services.

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The Good News Volume 2 Best Forestry Practices
in N. S.

• Selection harvesting increases forest value and
  provides more jobs
• Shift to value-added creates more jobs
• Restoration forestry is a good investment
• What incentives can encourage restoration

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Community GPI

• Initiative came from community groups. Many
  community partnerships include
• NS Citizens for Community Development Society
  community health boards, regional public health
  authorities, Cape Breton Wellness Centre,
  Atlantic Centre of Excellence for Womens Health
• CB regional police, Glace Bay Citizens Service
  League, Rotary Clubs, Kings and Cape Breton
  Community Economic Development Agencies

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Community-Government-University Partnerships

• Federal Canadian Population Health Initiative,
  National Crime Prevention Centre, HRDC, Canadian
  Rural Partnership, Rural Secretariat, Statistics
  Canada
• Dalhousie Univ. Population Health Research Unit
  St. Marys University Time Use Research Program
• University College of Cape Breton, Acadia U.

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Goals and Objectives

• Community vision, learn, mobilize, act
• Vision - community indicator selection
• Learning about ourselves
• Mobilize communities - common goals
• Turn new-found knowledge into action

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Research Goals

• Identifying strengths and weaknesses of 2 very
  different communities
• Community learning about itself, insights,
  understanding relationships among variables - eg
  volunteerism, time use and health
• Turning knowledge into action keeping track -
  measuring genuine progress

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Process as Result

• Indicator selection, creating survey
• Farmers exchanging information
• Report releases in Sheffield Mills, Jeddore -
  farmers, fishermen present
• New ideas e.g. restorative justice
• Results bring disparate groups together

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The Means

• 3,600 surveys - random, 15, confidential
• CI 95 /- 3 2 cross-tabulations
• Detailed 2 hrs Glace Bay 82 response
• Survey includes health, care-giving, time use,
  voluntary work, security, income employment,
  environmental issues
• Data entry cleaning, access guidelines

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Community Action

• Community access to results - special software
  packages, news stories, etc.
• Meet to discuss results and identify policy
  priorities / actions
• Community prioritizes indicators for annual
  benchmarks of progress
• Community training - adaptations

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Emphasis on practical action - E.g

• Teenage smoking overweight exercise - e.g.
  promote school-based programs
• Screening rates - mammography, pap smears --
  notify health officials of needs
• Identify counselling needs - employment, domestic
  violence, mental health
• Education - nutrition, recycling, energy use
• From elites to whole community newsletter,
  website

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New directions for the future

• New solutions e.g. work-life balance
• Model for other communities - template for
  adaptation - community / province
• Balance community-based research with
  methodological rigour, Statistics Canada
  oversight, advice, review
• Improve methods, indicators, survey tools, data
  sources - never a final product

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CIW Action on 3 fronts Research, communication
and policy. E.g.

• First results this year
• Reality Check
• International dimension Conference June 20-23
  2005 on global best practices (e.g. Ray Anderson,
  Bhutan, )

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Goal Changing Behaviour E.g. Waste Diversion
in Nova Scotia
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Can it be done?...1900s/1980s...
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Tasman proposed indicators Some questions for
discussion (with which we have wrestled)

• Relationship between current and future wellbeing
  (sustainability)
• Economic wellbeing economic growth or
  living standards? Are they equivalent? What is
  their relationship? Does an economy have to grow
  to enhance wellbeing? What is a sustainable
  economy?

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Tasman Demographics, Data needs

• Population, age, demographics Information or
  indicators? Direction of indicators e.g. is
  more pop. better? Is younger age structure
  progress? Is greater density positive?
• Include desired indicators for which no data
  currently available? Create new data needs data
  recommendations. Surveys needed or larger StatNZ
  sample sizes

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Tasman health, safety

• Comparability of questions across communities
  (e.g. community safety, self-rated health)
  linked indicators
• Questions on mental health, satisfaction,
  happiness, etc?
• Ill-health has meningococcal, TB, but cancer,
  heart disease/circulatory?

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Tasman - Economic

• Income distribution? by quintile, GINI,
  ethnicity, gender. I.e. equity dimension of
  wellbeing
• Quality of jobs as well as quantity Job
  security, jobs with benefits measures of
  underemployment and overwork
• Time stress work-life balance

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Tasman social, education

• Social supports most direct empirical
  relationship to satisfaction key health
  determinant
• Schooling vs education. Focus on outcomes e.g.
  basic literacy, functional literacy, numeracy,
  science, history, geography, civic literacy, etc.

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Tasman - environment

• Measuring sustainability supply (natural
  resource accounts) and demand (footprint)
• Air PM10 or 5 CACs Hg (cf Auckland /
  Christchurch)
• GHGs as key indicator energy per capita
• Fish stocks characteristics (marine envt)
• Diversion, Recycling ( Composting?)
• Aesthetics

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Community indicators Measuring what we value to
leave a better world for our children
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Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic CanadaIndice
de progrès véritable - Atlantique

• www.gpiatlantic.org