Land of the Spooky Tooky Owl

1
Land of the Spooky Tooky Owl

• Project by
• Colin Curwen-McAdams
• Kyle Avery
• Spencer Johnson
• Stephanie Ostrander

2
Who Says What?

• What is the growth rate of the Spooky Tooky Owls?
• When will the Owls meet their demise?

3
University Biology Students

• Annual Growth Rate 97.6
• Time before population crash 356.5 years

4
The Government

• Growth Rate 86.8
• Crashes after 66.4 years

5
The Sierra Club

• Growth Rate 65.4
• Crash after 22.1 years

6
What affects Lambda the most?

• Changing the Adult Survival Probability
• Least Sensitive Factors
• Age at which start breeding
• Female Fecundity Rates

Momma Owl
7
Maximum Reproduction Age(or, the previous LHS
over the result of one minus the result of the
result of s divided by lambda to the power of MRA
minus alpha plus 1.)

• A new factor W
• What happens to growth rates and extinction dates?

Democrats 15
Republicans 10
8
Republicans

• Without W

• W 10

• University Biologists
• Growth Rate 0.976
• Pop. Crash 356
• Govt
• Growth Rate 0.868
• Pop. Crash 66
• Sierra Club
• Growth rate 0.654
• Pop. Crash 22

• University Biologists
• G. R. lt 0.9500001
• Pop. Crash lt 183
• Govt
• G. R. lt 0.8500001
• Pop. Crash lt 57
• Sierra Club
• G. R. lt 0.6500001
• Pop. Crash lt 21

9
Democrats

• Without W

• W 15

• University Biologists
• G. R. 0.976
• Pop. Crash 356
• Govt
• G. R. 0.868
• Pop. Crash 66
• Sierra Club
• G. R. 0.654
• Pop. Crash 22

• University Biologists
• G. R. lt 0.9500001
• Pop. Crash lt 183
• Govt
• G. R. lt 0.8500001
• Pop. Crash lt 57
• Sierra Club
• G. R. lt 0.6500001
• Pop. Crash lt 21

10
What? Both parties are wrong?

• If w a is small, two terms begin to cancel and
• Nonsense!

• LHS made up of three terms
• Two terms are exponential
• W always greater than alpha

11
Sparkys Legacy

• Without W

• W 60

• University Biologists
• G. R. 0.976
• Pop. Crash 356
• Govt
• G. R. 0.868
• Pop. Crash 66
• Sierra Club
• G. R. 0.654
• Pop. Crash 22

• University Biologists
• G. R. 0.96683
• Pop. Crash 278
• Govt
• G. R. 0.85725
• Pop. Crash 60
• Sierra Club
• G. R. lt 0.6500001
• Pop. Crash lt 21

12
Equilibrium Occupancy

• How many Starbucks can we build?

13
Hate Triangle?
U of O Scientists
The Sierra Club
VS.
The Government
14
H Habitable Area


15
P Observed Equilibrium Occupancy


16
University of Oregon Scientists

• k 0.772 .0589
• p 64.92
• when h65
• ho 38
• hcritical 22.8
• 31.64 - 10 chance
• (1.5s)
• 7 more to develop

17
The Government

• k 0.85 .0725
• p 76.92
• when h65
• ho 50
• hcritical 15
• 25.88 - 10 chance
• (1.5s)
• 24 more to develop

18
The Sierra Club

• k 0.8 .0316
• p 69.23
• when h65
• ho 25
• hcritical 20
• 24.74 - 10 chance
• (1.5s)
• lt1 more to develop

19
Progress

• building stuff, selling shit, killing things

20
Stage 1
21
Stage 2

• Jobs and stuff
• Good, manly work
• Trees to build stuff for stage 5

22
Stage 3

• Landscape not all cluttered up with trees

23
Stage 4

Decisions made regardless of science
24
Stage 5

• Create more useful habitat

25
Stage 6

• What about the Spooky Tooky?
• Why doesnt this smug bastard get a job?

26
Stage 7
27
Okay, what just happened?

• Wide variability of studies makes it impossible
  to make an informed decision
• Errors surrounding k value make it hard to know
  how much can be developed
• Cash rules everything around us

28
What do we do?

• Following the Sierra Club study doesnt allow for
  development
• University Study allows for 7, so we can fit
  some suburbs
• Government study allows for 24 - which may lead
  to the extinction of the Spooky Tooky, but allows
  for the proliferation of a very different species

29
Stage 8

• Fair Trade