Ocean Acidification Research at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center

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Ocean Acidification Research at the Northwest
Fisheries Science Center
Presented by Paul McEhany January 15, 2008
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How will ocean acidification effect PNW marine
ecosystems?
Why this question

• Inform need for reduction in CO2, NOx and S02
  emissions
• Anticipate future changes in fisheries and
  threatened species
• Design biological monitoring for detection of OA
  impacts
• Develop management strategies for mitigation of
  OA effects

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How will ocean acidification effect PNW marine
ecosystems?
How to address this question

• Predict what will happen to CO2, pH and carbonate
  chemistry in the region
• Determine how individual species or limited
  species composition groups will respond to
  chemistry changes
• Model how individual species responses will
  propagate through the ecosystem
• Conduct mesocosm experiments for evaluating
  ecosystem level hypotheses

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Predicting a Future Ocean
Proposed collaboration with PMEL, UW-APL
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The Global Picture
From Feely et al. 2006
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Puget Sound
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Puget Sound pH Variation
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Puget Sound pH Change
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Sediment Saturation State
Aragonite Saturation State in Sediment
From Green, et al. 2004
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Testing Organism Response
Lead John Colt (NWFSC) Collaboration with PMEL
on treatment chemistry
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Treatment System Designs
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Treatments

• pC02 (280matm, 380matm, 800matm)
• NOx and SO2?
• Temperature (e.g. 10, 15, 25)

Need careful control (standardization?) of pC02,
pH, carbonate chemistry
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Charismatic Megafauna
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Calcification Rates
Net Calcification (mmol CaCO3 g FW-1h-1)
From Gazeau et al. 2007
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Others on the list

• Echinoderm larvae (e.g. Pycnopodium,
  Strongylocentrotus)
• Planktonic crustaceans
• Fish

Day
Calanus hatching success from Mayor et al. 2007
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Montlake Culture Facilities
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Seawater Rearing Facility

• Manchester Marine Laboratory
• 6,000 lpm processed seawater
• Sand and cartridge filtered to 5 u and then UV
  disinfected
• 400-m2 and 1,280-m2 broodstock rearing building
• Twenty 6.1-m circular tanks, six 4.1-m circular
  tanks, and six 1.8-m circular tanks

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Modeling Ecosystem Response
Lead Paul McElhany (NWFSC)
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Potential Food Web Effects
Base food web of N. Calif. Current from Field and
Francis 2005
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Puget Sound Ecosystem Modeling

• What if we dredge all the eel grass?
• What if we harvest all the rock fish?
• What if we reduce urban impervious surface?
• What if the we have CO2 induced acidification?
• What if clean up operations resuspend heavy
  metals?

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Current NWFSC Projects

• Ecopath/Ecosim (Chris Harvey)
• Atlantis (Chris Harvey)
• Versatile Ecosystem Model (VEM) (Paul McElhany)

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Time Step Transitions
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VEM tracks

• Options by functional group, location, time
• Biomass
• Physical state (e.g. size, stress, etc.)
• Contaminant load
• Chemical composition (e.g. Carbon, nitrogen)
• Energy
• Options by location, time
• Physical attributes (temp, salinity, pH, etc)
• Substrate
• Light availability
• Water movement
• Nutrient availability

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Testing Ecosystem Response
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Manchester Outdoor Mesocosm Facility
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Where are we

• Early discussions on estimating baseline and
  predicting future pH in Puget Sound
• Designing bivalve pCO2 experiments start
  experiments spring 2008
• Ecopath model in spring 2008 VEM spring 2009
• Mesocosm experiments not yet