Emission Sensitivities: Introduction and Background

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Emission SensitivitiesIntroduction and
Background

• Jim Boylan
• Georgia Department of Natural Resources
• (VISTAS Technical Lead for Air Quality Modeling)
• VISTAS Planning Conference Call
• Atlanta, Georgia
• August 25, 2004

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Introduction

• Sensitivity Episodes (with 2018 Emissions)
• January 1-20, 2002 and July 13-27, 2001
• Emission Sensitivities will be done by brute
  force
• No DDM-AERO
• No VARTSTEP
• Benchmarked basecase episodes
• Differences are small and random
• Merged Emission Files (2018 OTB and OTW)
• QA/QC
• Currently Performing Emission Sensitivity Runs
• All emission sensitivity runs performed on 12 km
  grid
• 36 km grid ran to generate BCs for the 12 km grid
  runs
• IC/BCs are held constant for each sensitivity run

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GRSM - IMPROVE
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Jefferson Street - SEARCH
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GRSM - IMPROVE
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Jefferson Street - SEARCH
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Emission Sensitivities

• Baseyear 2018 OTB OTW
• Level 1 Sensitivities
• All Emission Source Categories (Domain-Wide)
• Level 2 Sensitivities
• Lumped Source Categories (Domain-Wide)
• Level 3 Sensitivities
• Specific Source Categories (Domain-Wide)
• Geographic Sensitivities
• All emission reductions are 30

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Single Emission Sensitivities

• 2018 OTB OTW (12 km and 36 km)
• All SO2 (OTB OTW)
• All Elevated SO2 (OTB)
• Elevated CFPP (OTB)
• Elevated Non-PP (OTB)
• All Ground SO2 (OTB)
• On-Road Mobile (OTB)
• Off-Road mobile (OTB)
• All NOx (OTB OTW)
• All Elevated NOx (OTB)
• Elevated CFPP (OTB)
• Elevated Non-PP (OTB)
• All Ground NOx (OTB)
• On-Road Mobile (OTB)
• Off-Road mobile (OTB)

• All NH3 (OTB OTW)
• Livestock (OTB)
• Stationary Area (OTB)
• All Primary Carbon (OTB)
• All Fires (OTB)
• Stationary Area (OTB)
• All Mobile (OTB)
• On-Road Mobile (OTB)
• Off-Road mobile (OTB)
• All Man-Made VOCs (OTB)
• All Biogenic VOCs (OTB)

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Combo Emission Sensitivities

• All SO2/NOx (OTB)
• Elevated SO2/Elevated NOx (OTB)
• All SO2/NH3 (OTB)
• All NOx/NH3 (OTB OTW)
• Elevated NOx/All NH3 (OTB)
• All SO2/NOx/NH3 (OTB)
• Elevated SO2/All NOx/All NH3 (OTB)
• Elevated SO2/Elevated NOx/All NH3 (OTB)

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Total Number of Sensitivities

• Number of model runs per episode if all potential
  sensitivity runs are performed (39)
• Plus Full Geographic Sensitivities
• 10 VISTAS States 3 RPOs 13 sensitivities/episo
  de

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Merging Emissions

• Source Categories
• Elevated CFPP, Elevated Other PP, Elevated Non-PP
  Emissions
• VISTAS On-Road and non-VISTAS On-Road
• Off-Road Mobile Emissions
• VISTAS Point and VISTAS Area Fire Emissions
• Area Livestock Emissions
• Other Area Emissions
• Biogenic Emissions
• Canada and Mexican Emissions
• July 13-27, 2018 episode (36 km grid)
• Other Area Emissions counted twice
• No VISTAS Area Fire Emissions
• Impact on 12 km BCs Redo runs??????
• Largest Impact on Primary Carbon and NH3 emissions

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NH3 Emissions
Incorrect NH3 Correct
NH3
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Incorrect POA
Correct POA
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Evaluation of Reasonable Progress
RRF1 RRF2 RRF3 RRF1 2018(B)/2002(T) RRF2
2018(S)/2018(B) RRF3 2018(S)/2002(T)
20 Haziest Days
RRF1


RRF2

RRF3
bext
Natural Background
2000 2018 Year
2064

• Georgia Tech will be presenting RRF2 today
• Compare relative contributions to PM2.5 and bext
• No RRF1 or RRF3 calculations to compare to Glide
  Slope
• Need Typical 2002 Emissions for both episodes
• AG and GT have been given approval to produce
  Typical 2002

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Status of Sensitivity Runs

• 2018 OTB OTW (36 km) - Summer and Winter
  Episodes
• 2018 OTB OTW (12 km) - Summer and Winter
  Episodes
• All SO2 (OTB OTW) - Summer1 and Winter1
  Episodes
• All NOx (OTB OTW) - Summer and Winter Episodes
• All NH3 (OTB OTW) - Summer and Winter Episodes
• All SO2/NOx (OTB) - Winter1 Episode
• All SO2/NH3 (OTB) - Winter1 Episode
• All NOx/NH3 (OTB OTW) - Winter1 Episode
• All SO2/NOx/NH3 (OTB) - Winter1 Episode
• New 2018 OTB OTW (36 km) - Summer2 Episode
• All Primary Carbon (OTB) - Winter2 Episode
• All Man-Made VOCs (OTB) - Winter2 Episode
• All Biogenic VOCs (OTB) - Winter2 Episode

1Complete episode has not finished, but partial
results will be presented 2Complete episode has
not finished, partial results will NOT be
presented
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Sensitivity Receptor Sites

• VISTAS Class I Areas
• Sipsey Wilderness Area (AL)
• Chassahowitzka Wilderness Area (FL)
• Everglades NP (FL)
• St. Marks Wilderness Area (FL)
• Cohotta Wilderness Area (GA)
• Okefenokee Wilderness Area (GA)
• Wolf Island Wilderness Area (GA)
• Mammoth Cave NP (KY)
• Great Smoky Mountains NP (NC/TN) and Joyce
  Kilmer-Slickrock Wilderness Area (NC/TN)
• Linville Gorge Wilderness Area (NC)
• Shining Rock Wilderness Area (NC)
• Swanquarter Wilderness Area (NC)
• Cape Romain Wilderness (SC)
• James River Face Wilderness (VA)
• Shenandoah NP (VA)
• Dolly Sods Wilderness (WV) and Otter Creek
  Wilderness (WV)

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Sensitivity Receptor Sites

• Non-VISTAS Class I Areas
• Caney Creek Wilderness Area (AR)
• Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area (AR)
• Breton Wilderness Area (LA)
• Hercules-Glades Wilderness Area (MO)
• Mingo Wilderness Area (MO)
• Brigantine Wilderness Area (NJ)
• Urban (STN)/Rural Pairs
• Atlanta (GA)/Cohotta
• Knoxville (TN)/GRSM
• Charleston (WV)/Dolly Sods
• Charleston (SC)/Cape Romain

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Sensitivity Species

• PM Species
• SO4, NO3, NH4, OC, EC, Soils, CM, PM2.5
• Light Extinction

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GTs Presentation of Sensitivities

• Spatial PAVE Plots for 12 km Domain
• Sensitivity of PM2.5 and Speciated PM2.5 (e.g.,
  SO4) to Specific Emission Reductions (e.g., SO2)
• Time Series Plots for Each Receptor Site (3x3)
• Sensitivity of PM2.5 and Light Extinction (bext)
  to Multiple Emission Reduction (e.g., SO2, NOx,
  NH3, SO2/NOx)
• Episode Average Stacked Bar Charts for Each
  Receptor Site
• Sensitivity of Speciated PM2.5 (e.g., SO4, NO3,
  NH4) to Multiple Emission Reduction (e.g., SO2,
  NOx, NH3)
• Daily Stacked Bar Charts for Each Receptor Site
• Sensitivity of Speciated PM2.5 (e.g., SO4, NO3,
  NH4) to Specific Emission Reduction (e.g., SO2)
• All sensitivity results presented as daily
  averages