Towards PMIP3

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• Towards PMIP3 !
• Pascale Braconnot and PMIP steering committee

http//pmip2.lsce.ipsl.fr/
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PMIP2 Objectives and Strategy

• Supported by WCRP/CLIVAR and IGBP/PAGES
• Reporting to international bodies
• WGCM P. Braconnot PAGES B. Otto-Bliesner
  AIMES A. Abe-Ouchi INQUA/PALCOM S. Harrison
• Objectives
• Understand mechanisms of past climate change
• Evaluate roles of feedbacks from the different
  climate subsystems (atmosphere, ocean,
  land-surface, sea-ice )
• Evaluate the ability of climate models to
  simulate climate different from that of today
• How
• Simulations with state of the art OA(V) models
  for key periods in the past (GCM and EMICS)
• Data syntheses
• Model-data comparisons

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What is PMIP ?

• Diagnoses
• exp design
• feedbacks /missing processes
• robust/differences
• reasons for specific behaviour
• Benchmarking
• metrics/online diagnostics
• ESM additional data syntheses
• Probabilistic approaches
• Forum
• community discussions
• dialogue with other communities
• Identification of new scientific issues

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Status of PMIP2 database
See key figures and publications on the website
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• gt 98 sous projets
• 22 have a link with ecosystems or biology

Fossil pollens
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PMIP 3 Conclusions from PMIP2 Estes Park
meeting 70 participants over 10 modelling
groups

• Preliminary 3 levels of numerical experiments
• PMIP coordinated experiment/WGCM
• to be recommended to WGCM for endorsement for
  AR5
• Tier 1 1rst priority try to motivate other
  groups, nearly  mandatory 
• Tier 2 2nd priority mainly PMIP groups
• NB important to have endorsement of WGCM for most
  PMIP groups (to get support)
• PMIP coordinated experiment
• report to WGCM for relevant aspects
• papers useful for AR5
• PMIP working group experiment forum
• Use WIKI NEED a motivated COORDINATOR
• Can evolve through time

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PMIP3 simulations (conclusion Colorado meeting)

• PMIP3/WGCM simulations (past-present-future)
• Mid-Holocene, LGM, Last Interglacial,
  mid-pliocene, last millenium
• Other PMIP experiments
• Transient 130-125ka
• Deglaciation
• 8.2 kyr BP (fresh water)
• Additional simulation uncertainties in boundary
  conditions, detailed analyses of feedbacks
• Data syntheses
• Key periods, uncertainties in reconstruction
• Use of biochemical models
• Biome4, DVGM-carbon model (PC4MIP), ocean
  tracers, ice-sheet)
• PMIP database and website (LSCE)
• Boundary conditions, data syntheses, key
  diagnoses, sub-projects

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PMIP3 Tier 1
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6kyr BP LGM 21 kyr BP

• Under discussion
• Start from a cold state to limite length of
  simulations
• Minimum changes in the land-see mask
• Veg in OA

Under discussion -remnant ice-sheet in HN
(Hudson bay) - Veg in OA simulations
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PMIP3 Tier 2
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• Last Millenium ( under PMIP umbrella )
• For the 1st ready for a common experiment
  850-1850
• Natural vs forced variability
• WGCM/ Tier 2 1 long run 850-1850 common forcing
  (solar, volcanic, land-use, orbital)
• optional encourage ensemble members (3
  long-runs more short intervals)
• Same control as CMIP
• Datasets rely on PAGES-CLIVAR
• GROUPS GISS, NCAR, IPSL, MPI, Hadley ?, MIROC
• Comment Are they ready with AR5 models ? Not
  all
• Coord Caspar Amman, Johann Jungclaus, Gavin
  Schmidt, Pat Bartlein

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Proposition for WGCM and next IPCC

• Questions
• Have the Tier1 and Tier2 PMIP2 simulations listed
  as part of the highly recommended simulations for
  next IPCC (have the same models running future
  and past climate experiments)
• Are there specific topics (ex feedbacks,
  see-level, fresh water) WGCM would encourage as
  priorities?
• Need a better link between PMIP and CMIP?
  (Analyses across time periods)

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Archer and Brovkin (2008)
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MIROC3.2 ensemble
CLIMBER-2 ensemble
Ballantyne et al. (2005) LGM data, 1? limits
From Harrison PMIP meeting