Britta Bierwagen, Susan Julius

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Using Biological Monitoring to Detect Climate
Change Effects A Classification of Bioindicators

• Britta Bierwagen, Susan Julius
• Global Change Research Program, NCEA/ORD/EPA
• Michael Barbour, Jeroen Gerritsen, Anna Hamilton,
  Mike Paul
• Tetra Tech, Inc.

The views expressed in this presentation are
those of the author and they do not necessarily
reflect the views or policies of the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency
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Increased air temperature
Altered precipitation regimes
Increased CO2 in atmosphere
Climatic changes
Increased water temperature
Increased snowmelt
Altered flow
Reduced ice cover
Increased sea levels
Altered evapo-transpiration
Effects in aquatic ecosystems
Increased salinity / altered water chemistry
Increased CO2 in waters
Altered stratification regime
Ecosystem Altered energy flow and cycling
Community Altered species tolerances
interactions
Biological and ecological responses
Population Altered demographic rates
Individual Altered vital rates
Assessment of responses
Responses can be measured using indicators
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Outline

• Climate change consequences for aquatic systems
• Effects on biological indicators
• Categories of biological indicators according to
  responsiveness to climate change
• Considerations for monitoring and bioassessment
  programs

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Climate Change Effects on Aquatic Ecosystems

• Changes in air temperature influence changes in
  water temperature
• Changes in precipitation timing and amount affect
  water quantity and quality, and timing of flows
• Thermal expansion and polar melting cause sea
  level rise
• Increasing atmospheric CO2 decreases pH
• Effects vary regionally and seasonally
• Alterations have consequences throughout ecosystem

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Climate change effects on aquatic ecosystems will
affect both reference and impaired sites

• Need to distinguish climate change from other
  stressors, both to control for and detect effects
• Monitoring design and selection of indicators
  should reflect these needs

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What kind of ecosystem effects are expected?

• Some examples of what could be monitored
• Species moving up in altitude and latitude
• Changing species composition
• Changing emergence dates
• Changing seasonality productivity of plankton
• Changing food web interactions
• Increased biological productivity due to warmer
  water temperatures and longer ice-free periods

Cht. 4, IPCC 2007
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Additional Monitoring Considerations Climate and
Land Use Change Interactions

• Can monitoring disentangle interacting stressors?
• High flows
• Land use likely to dominate signal
• Low flows
• Climate likely to dominate signal

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How do we continue to measure impairment due to
existing stressors in a changing climate?
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Climate Change Bioassessment Programs

• Additional stressor on ecosystem
• Affects both reference non-reference sites
• Current indicators may be confounded by climate
  change effects on ecosystems
• Bioassessment program management goals
• Difficult to establish goal if baseline is
  changing
• Or goals may be impossible to meet

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Climate Change Bioassessment Programs

• Additional stressor on ecosystem
• Affects both reference non-reference sites
• Current indicators may be confounded by climate
  change effects on ecosystems
• Bioassessment program management goals
• Difficult to establish goal if baseline is
  changing
• Or goals may be impossible to meet

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Climate Change Bioassessment Programs

• Additional stressor on ecosystem
• Affects both reference non-reference sites
• Current indicators may be confounded by climate
  change effects on ecosystems
• Bioassessment program management goals
• Difficult to establish goal if baseline is
  changing
• Or goals may be impossible to meet

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Climate Change Bioassessment Programs

• Additional stressor on ecosystem
• Affects both reference non-reference sites
• Current indicators may be confounded by climate
  change effects on ecosystems
• Bioassessment program management goals
• Difficult to establish goal if baseline is
  changing
• Or goals may be impossible to meet

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How do existing biological indicators respond to
climate change?
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Preliminary Analysis of Indicators

• Developed initial categorization of biological
  indicators according to sensitivity to climate
  change
• Conducted case studies on effects on reference
  and non-reference sites and monitoring strategies
• Held workshops for biocriteria managers (Spring
  07 08)
• Final report available on EPA/NCEA website under
  Global Change

http//cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?d
eid190304
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Categories of Indicators
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What Defines Climate-Insensitive?

• Ecological events not cued to temperature
• Species is tolerant of broad temperature range
• Tolerant of wide range of hydrologic conditions
• High flows or low flows
• High variability in flow
• Variation in salinity

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What Defines Climate-Sensitive?

• Ecological events cued to temperature
• Species exists in narrow temperature range
• Intolerant of certain hydrologic conditions
• High flows or low flows
• Saltwater intrusion

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Current Research

• Evaluate how indicator species respond to climate
  change through pilot studies (ME, OH, NC, UT)
• Develop database on species traits related to
  climate sensitivity
• Use historical data to examine trends at
  reference sites linked to climate variables
• Use data to project potential effects from CC
• Case studies on land use change interactions
• Examine vulnerability of reference sites
• Examine similarities and differences in
  responses of indicators to urbanization vs.
  climate change

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Pilot Studies

• In-depth studies focusing on needs of state
  programs, incorporating inputs from last workshop
• Focus on detailed evaluation of potential
  indicators
• Taxa traits associated with climate change
  responses
• Regional variation among indicators and traits
• Test for trends among state databases to test
  taxa and functional group hypotheses
• Categorize species according to sensitivities and
  responses
• Develop indices

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Climate-Sensitive Traits

• Phenology (timing of emergence, reproduction,
  flowering, etc.)
• Longer growing season (number of reproductive
  periods)
• Life stage-specific
• Temperature sensitivity
• Hydrologic sensitivity

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Potential Cold-Water Indicator Taxa using Maine
Data

• Rhyacophila (Trichoptera)
• Parapsyche (Trichoptera)
• Ameletus (Ephemeroptera)
• Epeorus (Ephemeroptera)
• Pteronarcys (Plecoptera)
• Perlodidae (Plecoptera)
• Micropsectra (Chironomidae)
• Brillia (Chironomidae)

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Potential Warm-Water Indicator Taxa using Maine
Data

• Pseudochironomus (Chironomidae)
• Pentaneura (Chironomidae)
• Cheumatopsyche (Trichoptera)

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Management Monitoring What can be done?
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Some specific recommendations

• Accept moving target paradigm versus steady state
  model
• Establish sentinel sites for trend monitoring
• Mine historical data records to establish a basis
  for evaluating climate change
• Improve hydrological and temperature data
  collection
• Integrate the concept of climate change into
  monitoring and planning
• Monitor for effectiveness of restoration
  activities that may buffer climate-change impacts

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Whats needed to implement recommendations?

• Monitoring of reference sites
• Repeated sampling at same sites (sentinel sites)
• Collecting baseline data
• Biotic and abiotic variables (temperature, flow)
• Species trait information and sensitivities
• Acquiring continuous and real time data
• Linking real-time data and near real-time
  modeling
• Improving year-round ecosystem monitoring
  infrastructure

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Acknowledgements

• Jen Stamp (Tetra Tech, Inc.)
• J. David Allan (U. Mich.), LeRoy Poff (Col.
  State)

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Thank You!Questions?bierwagen.britta_at_epa.gov
703-347-8613