How Climate Change Will Impact Multiple Sectors in Society

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How Climate Change Will Impact Multiple Sectors
in Society

• Nadim Farajalla
• Department of Landscape Design and Ecosystem
  Management
• Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences
• American University of Beirut

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Background

• Climate versus Weather
• Weather is the day-to-day state of the
  atmosphere, and is a chaotic non-linear dynamic
  system.
• Climate the average state of weather is
  fairly stable and predictable. It includes
• the average temperature,
• amount of precipitation,
• days of sunlight, and
• other variables that might be measured at any
  given site.

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Background

• What is Climate Change?
• the variation in the Earth's global climate or in
  regional climates over time
• caused by processes internal to the Earth,
  external forces (e.g. variations in sunlight
  intensity) or, more recently, human activities
• there is 90-95 likelihood that changes in modern
  climate have been in part caused by human action.

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Background

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
  4th Report
• "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal."
• "Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century
  is very likely due to the observed increase in
  anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."

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Background

• What human activities are causing Climate Change?
• Fossil fuels produce CO2 and CH4
• Cement manufacture 3rd largest source of CO2
• Land use agriculture, deforestation, urban
  sprawl
• Livestock responsible for 18 of the worlds
  greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2
  equivalents and 65 of human-induced nitrous
  oxide

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IPCC Projections Temperature

• A temperature rise of about 0.1 C per decade
  would be expected for the next two decades, even
  if greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations were
  kept at year 2000 levels
• Range of temperature increase of 1.8 C to 4.0 C
  

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Effects of Climate Change

• For increases in global mean temperature of less
  than 1-3C above 1990 levels,
• some places and sectors will see beneficial
  impacts
• others will experience harmful ones. Some
  low-latitude and polar regions are expected to
  experience net costs even for small increases in
  temperature.
• For increases in temperature greater than 2-3C
  it is very likely that all regions will
  experience either declines in net benefits or
  increases in net costs

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Effects of Climate Change

• Health Effects
• Agriculture and Food Supply
• Forests
• Ecosystems and Biodiversity
• Coastal Zones
• Water Resources
• Energy Production and Use

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Adaptation - Human Health

• Mobilization of adequate financial and human
  public health resources, including training,
  surveillance and emergency response, and
  prevention and control programs.
• Urban tree planting to moderate temperature
  increases
• Weather advisories to alert the public about
  dangerous heat conditions
• Grain storage, emergency feeding stations
• Adjusting clothing and activity levels,
  increasing fluid intake

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Adaptation - Coastal Areas and Sea Level Rise

• Identify areas requiring shore protection (e.g.
  dikes, bulkheads, beach nourishment) and which
  areas will be allowed to adapt naturally
• Analyze environmental consequences of shore
  protection and promote eco-friendly shore
  protection techniques
• Identifying land use measures to ensure that
  wetlands migrate as sea level rises in some areas
  
• Develop and/or improve early warning systems and
  flood hazard mapping for storms
• Protect water supplies from contamination by
  saltwater

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Adaptation - Agriculture and Forestry

• Alter the timing of planting dates to adapt to
  changing growing conditions
• Alter cropping mix and forest species that are
  better suited to the changing climatic conditions
  
• Breed new plant species and crops that are more
  tolerant to changed climate condition
• Promote fire suppression practices in the event
  of increased fire risk
• Control insect outbreaks

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Adaptation - Ecosystems and Wildlife

• Protect and enhance migration corridors to allow
  species to migrate as the climate changes
• Identify management practices that will ensure
  the successful attainment of conservation and
  management goals focus on practices that confer
  resilience to the ecosystem

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Adaptation - Water Resources

• alter infrastructure or institutional
  arrangements
• change demand
• improve water use efficiency,
• plan for alternative water sources (i.e. treated
  wastewater or desalinated seawater)
• revise water allocation
• conserve soil moisture through mulching and other
  means
• protect coastal freshwater resources from
  saltwater intrusion

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Adaptation - Energy

• Increase energy efficiency to offset increases in
  energy consumption
• Protect facilities against extreme weather events
  
• Diversify power supply

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Lebanon

• Where are we from all this
• Lebanons First National Communication on Climate
  Change (1999 2002)
• Lebanons Second National Communication on
  Climate Change (underway)
• Signatory to the Kyoto Agreement

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Temperature in Beirut
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Temperature in Beirut
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Rainfall in Beirut
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Rainfall in Beirut

• number of rainy days increased
• rainfall intensity decreased

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Rainfall at AREC
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Effects of ENSO on Precipitation
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Climate change and Lebanon

• Water resources decrease in availability and
  quality
• Flora Loss of synchronicity leading to
  extinction of some species
• Forests Disappearance of some species such as
  junipers to be replaced by herbaceous species
• Mammals Increase in rodent populations and their
  predators at the cost of other predators

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Climate change and Lebanon

• Insects increase in population of mosquitoes and
  flies (nuisance insects) ad disappearance or
  reduction in numbers of others such as some
  species of butterflies
• Avifuana migration routes may change as well as
  habitats
• Aquatic systems will witness a northward shift in
  species and changes in spawning seasons

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Actions for Lebanon

• Main focus is on adaptation technologies and
  management plans
• Government to aid in adopting less polluting and
  more energy efficient technologies in industry
  and construction
• NGOs raise awareness and act as true watchdogs
• Academia to focus research adaptation
  technologies and management plans specific to
  Lebanon

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Thank you
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Health Effects

• Direct Temperature Effects
• Increase the incidence of heat waves and hot
  extremes. affecting those with heart problems,
  asthma, the elderly, and the very young
• Extreme Events
• Increase in the frequency and severity of extreme
  events such as hurricanes and floods leading to
  more event-related deaths, injuries, infectious
  diseases, and stress-related disorders.

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Health Effects

• Climate-Sensitive Diseases
• increase the risk of some infectious diseases,
  especially in warm areas.
• Vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue
  fever, yellow fever, and encephalitis
• Prolong disease transmission seasons in some
  locations where certain diseases already exist.
• Air Quality
• Increase in respiratory disorders due to
  increases frequency of smog events (ozone is
  damaging to lung tissues) and particulate air
  pollution (particulates can reach to the deepest
  regions of the lungs)

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Agriculture and Food Supply

• Benefits of warmer climate are more than offset
  by
• increased potential for droughts, floods and heat
  waves
• reduced water supply and
• depleted soil moisture
• increased risks of fires
• increased pest and pathogen outbreak

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Agriculture and Food Supply

• Average temperature increase will
• lengthen growing season in regions with a
  relatively cool spring
• adversely affect crops in regions where summer
  heat already limits production
• increase soil evaporation rates
• increase the chances of severe droughts
• Change in rainfall amount and patterns
• precipitation will increase in high latitudes
• decrease in most subtropical land regions
• extreme precipitation events is predicted to
  increase
• higher soil erosion rates
• lower soil moisture

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Agriculture and Food Supply

• Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2
• enhance the growth of some crops such as wheat,
  rice and soybeans
• Pollution levels such as tropospheric ozone
• higher levels of ground level ozone limit the
  growth of crops
• may offset any beneficial yield effects that
  result from elevated CO2 levels

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Agriculture and Food Supply

• Agriculture in industrialized countries is
  expected to be less vulnerable to climate change
  than agriculture in developing nationswhere
  farmers may have a limited ability to adapt.

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Agriculture and Food Supply

• Agricultural sectors ability to cope with and
  adapt to climate change relies on
• Future changes in technology
• Changes in demand for food
• Environmental conditions, such as water
  availability and soil quality
• Management practices - opportunity to switch
  management and crop selection from season to
  season

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Forests

• Effects on forests are likely to include changes
  in
• forest health and productivity
• the geographic range of certain tree species.

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Forests

• These effects can in turn alter
• Timber production,
• Outdoor recreational activities,
• Water quality,
• Wildlife and
• Rates of carbon storage.

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Ecosystems and Biodiversity

• An ecosystem is an interdependent, functioning
  system of plants, animals and microorganisms
  found at any scale
• Effects on terrestrial species indicate a
  poleward and elevational range shifts of flora
  and fauna.
• If temperatures exceed 2-3 C relative to
  pre-industrial levels 20 - 30 of species may be
  at risk of extinction
• Resilience of many ecosystems likely to be
  exceeded by an unprecedented combination of
  change in climate and other global change drivers

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Coastal Zones

• Sea level rise
• average sea level rise 0.18 to 0.60 m in the next
  century
• inundate wetlands and other low-lying lands,
• erode beaches, intensify flooding,
• increase in salinity of rivers, bays, and
  groundwater
• Protection measures may have adverse effects on
  the environment and on public uses of beaches and
  waterways

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Coastal Zones

• Land loss
• Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as salt marshes
  and mangroves are particularly vulnerable
• Sea level rise could convert as much as 33
  percent of the worlds coastal wetlands to open
  water
• For example in the US a 60 cm rise in sea level
  would eliminate approximately 26,000 km2

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Coastal Zones

• Changes in maritime storms and flooding,
• Increased flooding from wave action
• Increased beach erosion
• Increased flooding from rainstorms
• Implications for water resources
• increases salinity of surface water and ground
  water through salt water intrusion.

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Water Resources

• Changes in temperature and precipitation will
  have an impact on
• Water availability,
• Increase in net solar radiation or temperature ?
  speed up hydrologic cycle processes ? increase in
  precipitation in areas and reducing it in others
• Water quality
• Higher temperatures reduce dissolved oxygen
  levels
• Reduced streamflow and lake levels ? less
  dilution of pollutants
• Increased frequency and intensity of rainfall ?
  more pollution and sedimentation due to
  increasedrunoff
• Streamflow
• streamflow may move from late spring to early
  spring/late winter

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Energy Production and Use

• Energy Use - demand for energy will change
• Rising air temperatures ? increases in energy
  demand for air conditioning
• Energy needed for space-heating may decrease
• Energy consumed for other climate-sensitive
  processes could be impacted, e.g.
• pumping water for irrigation in agriculture
• cooling of greenhouses
• Refrigeration (e.g. stored produce, medicine,
  etc.)

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Energy Production and Use

• Energy Production - little research has been
  conducted
• Examples of potential impacts are
• Hydropower generation will be affected due to
  variability in stream flows.
• Infrastructure for energy production,
  transmission and distribution could be affected
  by increasingly severe storms.
• Power plant operations can be affected by extreme
  heat waves.
• Some renewable sources of energy could be
  affected. Example
• Increased cloudiness may reduce solar power
  generation
• Wind energy production

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Protected Areas, Outdoor Recreation and Tourism

• Many protected areas are currently susceptible to
  events influenced by climatic variability, such
  as drought, wild fires, impaired air quality, and
  severe storms this will increase.
• Tourism businesses, which usually are
  location-specific, have a lower potential than
  tourists themselves (who have a wide variety of
  options) to adapt to climate change

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