QUALITIES OF DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA

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QUALITIES OF DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA

• Economic Policies and Governmental Performance

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MIDTERM EXAM

• Moved to Week 7 (Wednesday, February 20)
• Will cover all material through lecture in Week 6
  (i.e., Liberal vs. Illiberal Democracy)
• Study Guide will be distributed and discussed on
  February 13

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OPTIONAL PAPER

• 10-12 pages in length
• Due in class on Wednesday, March 5
• Topic Anything related to course (but get
  clearance from PHS or TA)
• Approach An analytical think piece, not an
  exhaustive research paper
• Define a problem, frame a question, explain
  evidence and sources, and answer the question you
  pose at the outset

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READING

• Smith, Democracy, ch. 8
• Hagopian and Mainwaring, Third Wave, ch. 2 (on
  Argentina)

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OUTLINE

• Declining State Capacity
• Politics of Economic Growth
• The Arguments
• The Findings
• Democracy and Social Welfare Infant Mortality
  and School Attendance
• Poverty and Inequality

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PRINCIPAL HYPOTHESES

• H1 The greater the prevalence of democratic
  rule, the greater the provision of material
  benefits.
• H2 The greater the prevalence of undemocratic
  (authoritarian) rule, the greater the provision
  of material benefits.
• H3 The prevalence of democratic or undemocratic
  rule bears no systematic relationship to the
  relative provision of material benefits.

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Public Spending as Share of GDP ABC Mexico
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Patterns of GDP Growth, 1960-2000
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Table 8-2. Electoral Regimes and GDP Growth,
1960s-2000
_____________Electoral Regime__________ GDP
Autocracy Semi-Democracy Democracy
Growth () ()
() ---------------------------------------------
------------------- Low 27
26 24
Med-Low 20 31
29 Med-High
24 26
26 High 30
18 22
------------------------------------------------
---------------- 101 101
101 N 306
109 319 734
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Table 8-4. Electoral Regimes and Infant
Mortality, 1960s-1990s Infant
_____________Electoral Regime______________
Mortality Autocracy Semi-Democracy Democracy
() () () -----------------
-------------------------------------- High
48 17
12 Medium-High
22 32 24
Medium-Low 22
32 25 Low
8 19
39 -------------------
------------------------------------ Total
100 100
100 N 128 53 186
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Table 8-7. Electoral Regimes and Primary School
Enrollment, 1980s-1990s Primary
_____________Electoral Regime______________
School Autocracy Semi-Democracy Democrac
y Enrollment () () ()
-------------------------------------------------
------ Low 40 27
14 Medium-Low 15
14 38
Medium-High 31 14
27 High 13
45 22
-------------------------------------
------------------ Total 99
100 101 N
67 44 101 Note Columns may not
add up to 100 because of rounding.
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FOLLOW-UP STUDY

• UniverseMiddle income countries55 in
  lower-middle, 41 in upper-middle, N96
• Time frame1990-2004
• Units of analysiscountry-years
• Dependent variables
• Annual GDP growth rate ()
• Infant Mortality (per 1,000)
• Primary School Enrollment ()

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REGIONAL DETERMINANTS

• __Growth__ __Mortality__
  __Schooling__
• (1,091) (280)
  (370)
• East Asia (0, 1) .8961
  -6.7748 5.9032
• Eastern Europe (0, 1) -1.9764
  -11.3097 -.6376
• Central Asia (0, 1) -1.8337
  13.0827 1.4343
• Middle East (0, 1) .7693
  -1.3313 -.1781
• Sub-Saharan Africa (0, 1) -.2954
  18.9078 -11.8868
• South Asia (0, 0) ----
  ---- ----
• LatinAmerica
• Caribbean (0, 1) -.1103
  -2.4558 2.2513
• Constant 3.6313 71.2188
  82.5390
• R2 .0096 .6234
  .3227
• Significant at .05 level or better.

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REGION AND DEMOCRACY

• __ __ Growth__ __ Mortality__
  __ Schooling__
• (1,032) (266) (346)
• Latin American
• Caribbean
• Democracy (0, 1) .2373 -11.8388
  8.5104
• Other Democracy (0, 1) .3569
  -10.4353 4.5804
• Nondemocracy (0, 0) ----
  ---- ----
• Constant 3.9008
  83.8488 76.6599
• R2 .0690 .5336
  .2027
• Significant at .01 level or better.

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DEMOCRACY WITHIN LATIN AMERICA

• __Growth__ __Mortality__ __Schooling_
• (240) (48) (80)
• Liberal (0, 1) 1.1157 -12.5294
  .3389
• Illiberal (0, 1) 1.1872
  -.0239 -2.2475
• Semi (0, 1) 1.1818 4.2093
  2.3719
• Nondemocracy (0, 0) ----
  ---- ----
• Constant 3.1253 46.8197
  95.7521
• R2 .0609 .4680
  .1792
• Significant at .05 level or better.

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Patterns of Inequality, 1960-2000 ABC Mexico
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