Will China Democratize?

1
Will China Democratize?
2
Waves of Democratization

• A group of transitions from nondemocratic to
  democratic regimes that occur within a specified
  period of time and that significantly outnumber
  transitions in the opposite direction during that
  period

3
The First Two Waves

• A long and slow wave from 1828 to 1926
• A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1922
  to 1942
• A wave of democratization after World War II from
  1943 to 1964
• A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1961
  to 1975

4
The Third Wave

• Started in Portugal and Spain in mid-1970s
• Spread to South America from late 1970s to early
  1980s
• Reached Asia in late 1980s
• Surge of transitions in East Europe at end of
  1980s
• South Africa 1990

5
The Third Wave
6
Causes of Regime Change
7
Economic Variable

• Economic development
• dispersion of resources
• economic pluralism
• social pluralism
• political pluralism

8
Economic Variable

• Economic development
• middle class
• demand for democracy
• elite bargaining
• political accommodation

9
Economic Variable

• Economic development
• rising expectations
• economic difficulties
• popular discontent
• regime crises

10
Regime Changes
Non-democracy
Preservation
State Crises
Regime Change
Democracy
Democracy
Non-democracy
11
China Favorable Conditions

• Economic development
• emergence and growth of new social groups
• dispersion of resources to society
• Technological advances
• Ideological decline of Marxism, Leninism, and Mao
  Zedong Thought
• Influence of Hong Kong and Taiwan
• Influence of Western liberal democracies

12
Obstacles to Democratization

• Dominant single-party
• strategic adjustments
• coercive forces
• Liberalization without democratization
• Alliance of authoritarian and business interests

13
Scenarios of Change

• Preservation of authoritarian regime
• Gradual transition to authoritarian pluralism
• Gradual and moderate liberalization
• Gradual and moderate democratization
• Radical transition toward new authoritarian
  regime
• Radical transition toward democracy

14
Patterns of Democratization

• From top down
• Conflict of interest
• Elite competition
• Gradual transition
• From bottom up
• Popular demand
• Political movement
• Radical revolution