The Long

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The Long Winding Road
The Long and Winding Road Assessing campaign
strategies at Irish elections
Campaigning at Irish Local Elections
Liam Weeks Department of Political
Science Trinity College, Dublin PSAI 2005 Annual
Conference October 21st-23rd 2005, Belfast
Liam Weeks Department of Government University
College Cork March 29th 2007 Note these are
draft results. Please do not cite without
authors permission
Liam Weeks Department of Political
Science January 21st 2005
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Getting over the 1st hurdle

• The hardest thing in politics is to get the
  nomination
• Very competitive, cannot rely on party label
• Can take years to build up a base
• Once selected, high odds of election
• FF (81/106) FG (31/85) Lab (21/47) PDs (8/20)
  GP (6/31) SF (5/37)

• So, if selected, youre already in the home
  straight

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Thank you!

• First of all, Id like to thank many of you who
  were local election candidates and completed my
  survey in 2004

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Overview

• Aim of Research
• (1) What goes on during a campaign?
• Nature intensity of activities
• (2) Does campaigning make a difference?
• Multivariate analysis-control for other
• effects, e.g. incumbency
• Stage
• Candidate survey-Irish local elections-June 2004

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Background

• Arena 2004 Irish local elections-
• 1962 candidates, 180 local constituencies, 34
  councils
• Survey June 2004
• 845 targeted
• 507 respondents. Response rate 60

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What makes a good campaign?
3 elements that determine success

• Preparation and planning of campaign
• (1) Decision to run (2) Length of active campaign
  (3) State of preparation when election called

• Resources available to candidate
• (4) Money (5) Helpers (6) Computer (7) Electoral
  register

• Activities carried out during campaign
• (8) Literature distributed (9)Canvassing (10)
  Polling day

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1. Fail to prepare
What do you need to do?
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2. Get a team in place
What do you need to do?
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3. Buy a Personal Computer
What do you need to do?
Note Figures are percentage using computer for
campaign activity
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4. Get a copy of the Electoral Register
What do you need to do?
Note Figures are percentage using electoral
register for campaign activity
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5. Hand out leaflets, put up posters
What do you need to do?
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6. Canvass voters
What do you need to do?
Households face-to-face contact made with by
candidate /or campaign team
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7. Campaign on Polling Day
What do you need to do?
Note All figures bar final column refer to
percentages
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8. Spend money
What do you need to do?
Level of expenditure by constituency and
confidence
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Does all this really matter? (1)
2004 local elections
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Does all this really matter? (2)
2002 general election
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Does campaign affect vote? (1)
OLS Regression of Vote on Campaign activities
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Conclusion analysis of results

• FF Every one helper brought 8 extra votes
• FG One helper brought 6 votes one poster one
  vote
• PD/SF/GP One poster one vote Every month active
  campaign brought 111 votes
• Indeps One helper 7 votes 100 leaflets one
  vote 2 posters one vote 1 extra voters
  contacted 3 votes
• Challengers One month active campaign 25 votes
  one helper 7 votes 200 leaflets 1 vote 3
  posters 2 votes one extra use of pc register
  20 votes
• Campaigning polling day loses votes for all
  candidates

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9. Highlight issues? Which issues?
What do you need to do?

• Media think so, not PJ Mara
• Northern Ireland?
• Health?
• Economy
• Or, are all politics local?