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Demography of the Middle East
John Bongaarts Population Council
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Middle East Region
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Outline

• Population growth and consequences
• Age structure changes youth bulge, labor force
  growth
• Why population growth continues
• Population policy options

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Adverse Effects of Rapid Population Growth
Environmental
Degradation of natural resources (land, water),
pollution
Economic
Low wages, poverty, slow growth
Governmental
Lagging investment in education, health services
and infrastructure
Political
Growth of political extremism and anti-Western
sentiments
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2) Age structure changes youth bulge,
labor force growth
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• 3) Why population growth continues

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Why population growth continues in the
developing world

• Fertility remains relatively high

• Declining mortality

• Population momentum due to a young age structure

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4) Population policy options
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Past response to concern about population growth

• Implement family planning programs to
• Provide access to and information about
  contraception
• Reduce unmet need for contraception

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Causes of growth
Policy options
1) High fertility

• Strengthen family planning programs

- Unwanted
- Wanted

• Invest in human capital

2) Declining mortality
3) Momentum of population growth

• Delay childbearing

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Conclusions

• ME population is expected to double by 2050
• Substantial environmental, economic and political
  consequences
• Policy options available
• - strengthen family planning programs
• - invest in human capital
• - address needs of the young