Nature's Place Presentation

1
Gridded-Pop WorkshopMay 2-3, 2000
Human Population and the Biodiversity Hotspots
Richard Cincotta, Robert Engelman and Jennifer
Wisnewski
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A Case for Considering the Low-end User
of Gridded Pop Data
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Who are low-end users?

• NGOs and other researchers using ArcView or other
  GIS viewing applications
• with or without spatial analysis programs.

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What will they do with GPW?

• Population density can be associated with risk
  to various resources, infrastructure and capital.
  
• Population density can be associated with
  exposure to risks from hazards.

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What do low-end users need?

• Standardization of data and procedures
  (comparable to UN Population Division
  procedures).
• Some hints/guidelines for use and display.

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The Biodiversity Hotspots (25) and Major
Tropical Wilderness Areas (3)
Conservation International
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Displaying GPW for Biodiversity
Audience
Most Dense gt300 people km-2
150 - 300 50 - 150 15 - 50
5 - 15 1 - 5 Least Dense 0 -
1
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Population in the Global Biodiversity
Hotspots 1995
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Findings Biodiversity Hotspots

• As of 1995, more than 1.1 billion people were
  living within the 25 biodiversity hotspots.
• The original extent of the hotspots cover just 12
  percent of the planets land area but are home to
  about 20 percent of the worlds population.

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Findings Biodiversity Hotspots

• Aggregate population growth (1995-2000) in the 25
  hotspots (1.8/yr) is more rapid than the world
  as a whole (1.3/yr).
• In 1995, aggregate population density in the
  hotspots (72 people/km2) was greater than that of
  the world as a whole (42 people/km2).

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Population in the Global Biodiversity
Hotspots 1995
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Major Tropical Wilderness Areas

• Population is growing at a rate of 3.1 percent
  annually about 2.5 times the worlds average
  population growth rate.

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Science Technology

• Short article in Nature (27 April 2000 issue,
  pp. 990-992)
• Forthcoming article for GIS-users in ArcNews

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Policymakers

• Forthcoming article for policymakers Issues in
  Science Technology
• UNDP/GEF sponsored priority-setting workshop for
  the West African Hotspot (Dec. 1999).
• Centerpiece for report Natures Place

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(No Transcript)
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Public Audiences

• Population section on Conservation International
  wall map.
• Analysis recommended for Pennsylvania state high
  school environmental science curriculum.
• Press Popularization

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Recommendations

• A Standard Time Series (e.g., 1995, 2000, 2005,
  ) -- with procedures for updating those intervals
  based on new estimates.
• Historic estimates (e.g., 1975 or 1950).
• Discussions of Projection Methods.

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Nature's Place
Human Population and the Future of Biological
Diversity
Richard Cincotta Robert Engelman GIS
Analysis Jennifer Wisnewski Research
Assistance Bonnie Dye Akia Talbot