Response to Committee Suggestions

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Response to Committee Suggestions

• Nancy Kirkendall
• Statistics and Methods Group, Director
• October 5, 2006

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How Can Modeling Suggest Data Needs?

• Open discussion generated a number of ideas that
• appealed to us
• Engaging of the Energy Modeling Forum
• Special issues in the energy journal
• Better solicitation of input (outreach effort)
• Users Conferences

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A New Oil Representation for the Sage Model

• Committee suggested
• Explicitly state any model assumptions and
  sensitivities to the results
• Regarding USGS data, specify how growth is
  accounted for in forecasting for 25 yrs forward
• EIA has received additional information from
  contractor who will be making a presentation on
  it tomorrow

4
Improving the SAGE Petroleum Refinery Model

• Committee commented that the model was too
  complex
• Currently we are using a more empirical approach
• Possible presentation of findings at the next
  meeting

5
2006 MECS Looking at Past Performance Statistics

• Committee suggested
• Using incentives to improve response rates and
  encourage electronic reporting to result in fewer
  callbacks
• EIA response
• EIA will investigate inexpensive alternatives for
  incentives.
• EIA will re-examine non-response follow up
  letters (that precede telephone follow-up)

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Respondent Cut-off Dates for Electricity Data
Collections

• Committee suggested a variety of things that EIA
  could do (such as telephone interviews, sampling
  non-respondents, conducting cost-benefit
  analysis)
• Committees ideas were useful for discussion
• EIA is considering sampling the smaller
  respondents

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Functional Requirements for EIAs IDC

• The committee was positive and supportive of the
  approach
• and offered a variety of suggestions. Committee
  advice helped
• the team finalize (almost) the document.
• EIA
• Has incorporated some recommendations
• Is moving toward completion of document
• Is implementing the Greenhouse Gas program as
  pilot
• Is working through details of how to bring legacy
  systems into new IDC

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Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Prices

• Committee recommended that EIA should
• Continue similar analysis
• Do further work to understand the time trend
• EIA Progress
• Current analysis has been completed and is
  available on EIAs website
• Trend term to be addressed in follow-on study

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