- Market conditions recently and projected variations

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Uranium Mining and Milling Overview Global Supply
and Demand and Implications for US
Facilities Western Mining Action Network -
Albuquerque, New Mexico September 24, 2008 Paul
Robinson Southwest Research and Information
Center sricpaul_at_earthlink.net
- Market conditions recently and projected
variations - Where is uranium really going to
come from and how much of it from where? -
Capital markets - Implications for US
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Market conditions and projected variations.
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Assumptions have been made to generate three
scenarios for likely uranium production in the
period to 2030. It is anticipated that production
should now rise strongly in all scenarios. In
the reference case, world uranium production is
expected to reach 60,000 tU in 2010 and 68,000 tU
in 2015. In the upper case, the equivalent
figures are 65,000 tU and 82,000 tU,
respectively. And in the lower case,
production should be 51,000 tU in 2010 and 64,000
in 2015. Beyond 2015, it gets increasingly
difficult to forecast production, as there are a
lot of mines in the prospective category, where
start-up dates are unpredictable. It is clear,
however, that there are sufficient reserves and
identified projects to take world production well
ahead of these levels in the post 2020 period. -
Global Nuclear Fuel Market Supply and Demand,
2007-2030 (2007 WNA Symposium -
www.world-nuclear.org)
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The World Nuclear Association (WNA) said, in
2003 that "The world's present measured
resources of uranium 3.5 million tonnes are
enough to last for some 50 years. This
represents a higher level of assured resources
than is normal for most minerals. The known
recoverable uranium resources can provide a
50-year supply for conventional nuclear reactors
at a projected long-term demand of about 70,000
tonnes per year. WNAs uranium supply
information counters any assertion that uranium
for future nuclear reactors might be in short
supply any time in the next 50 years. The WNA
(www.world-nuclear.org), formerly called the
Uranium Institute has been prominent source of
uranium supply and demand information for
industry and government for decades. The on-line
proceedings of WNAs annual symposia are a
readily available source of detailed nuclear fuel
market information and a major source for this
article.
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Between 2003 and 2005, WNAs global total of
known recoverable uranium resources had increased
by 34 to 4.7 million tonnes. The 1.2 million
tonnes of additional uranium in unmined deposits
identified between 2003 and 2005 is roughly
equal to the total amount of uranium consumed by
the nuclear weapons and reactor industry from
its inception in the 1940s through 2005
- 2008-09-22 www.uxc.com
- Leach, 2007 (2007 WNA Symposium)
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In 2007 WNA analysts said, Combining all primary
and secondary uranium supply sources suggests
that the nuclear fuel market should be more than
adequately supplied in the period to
2020. Indeed, there are expected to be supply
surpluses in the period 2010-15, assuming primary
uranium production rises as anticipated. Lower
uranium requirements than predicted in 2005 are
also an important factor in this. - Global
Nuclear Fuel Market Supply and Demand,
2007-2030 (2007 WNA Symposium -
www.world-nuclear.org)
The World Nuclear Association, the leading global
nuclear energy advocacy organization, reports
that enough uranium can be produced at existing
production sites for 100 years at current usage
rates. - Uranium 2007 Resources, Production and
Demand, a joint publication of the OECD Nuclear
Energy Agency and International Atomic Energy
Agency (The Uranium Red Book), NEA No. 6345,
2008 (available at http//www.oecdbookshop.org/oec
d/display.asp?sf1identifiersst19789264047662).
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Where is uranium really going to come from and
how much of it from were?
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Current usage is about 65,000 tU/yr. Thus the
world's present measured resources of uranium
(5.5 Mt) in the cost category somewhat below
present spot prices and used only in conventional
reactors, are enough to last for over 80 years.
This represents a higher level of assured
resources than is normal for most minerals.
Further exploration and higher prices will
certainly, on the basis of present geological
knowledge, yield further resources as present
ones are used up. - World Nuclear Association,
Supply of Uranium, June 2008 -
http//www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf75.html
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Uranium Letter Global Overview, September 2007 is
at http//www.goldletterint.com/documents/pdf/egr_
uranium.pdf
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Capital markets
http//www.goldletterint.com/documents/pdf/URANIUM
_Overviews_29Aug08.pdf
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http//www.goldletterint.com/documents/pdf/URANIUM
_Overviews_29Aug08.pdf
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Implications for US Production - Where is the
demand and who has the money to get started?
- US NRC List of Notice of Intent Letters and
Application Filing Schedule - 2008-06-30