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LOCATION RESEARCH AND SITE ANALYSIS FOR NEW FOOD COOPS

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Phase I - CAT Survey (existing store) Phase II - Market Area Fieldwork ... A CAT Survey serves as a means of measuring a store's performance in each of its ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: LOCATION RESEARCH AND SITE ANALYSIS FOR NEW FOOD COOPS


1
LOCATION RESEARCHAND SITE ANALYSISFOR NEW FOOD
CO-OPS
  • A Presentation for Co-op 500 by
  • Peter C. Davis
  • Location Research Consultant
  • Cooperative Development Services

2
Location Research Defined
  • The body of knowledge and research methodologies
    used for
  • The development of strategies for market entry or
    expansion
  • The evaluation of retail locations and sites
  • The forecasting of expected sales levels given
    alternative scenarios/assumptions

3
Site Analysis Explained
  • The major location research activity associated
    with the evaluation of a retail food store site
  • The market at large
  • The trade area served by the store
  • The competitive environment
  • The location (in the marketing sense)
  • The site (in the physical, real estate sense)
  • The facility

4
Three Levels ofResearch Analysis
  • First Level Basic Q D Study
  • Second Level Enhanced Q D Study
  • Third Level Full Market Study

5
First Level Basic Q D
  • An in-office assessment of the level of market
    potential available
  • A macro-level estimate of sales potential
    available to a retail food co-op
  • Based totally on secondary, in-office data
  • No local input of data or observations
  • Results in a 1-2 page summary that helps
    determine the likelihood of go/no-go
  • Price 1,000 - 1,200

6
Second Level Enhanced Q D
  • Everything included in the Basic Q D Study
  • Also provides for local input regarding
  • Trade area size and configuration
  • Population history and growth
  • Competition
  • Site/Location characteristics
  • Any other insights into the local market
  • No fieldwork is conducted
  • Provides for a somewhat more reliable evaluation
    of a natural food store opportunity, presented in
    a 2-3 page summary report
  • Price 1,500 - 1,800

7
Third Level Full Market Study
  • Utilizes both primary and secondary data
  • Includes extensive fieldwork in order to
  • Evaluate site location characteristics
  • Evaluate competitive environment
  • Evaluate patterns of accessibility
  • Evaluate extent of retail synergy
  • Utilizes detailed analog sales forecasting
  • Generally acceptable by potential lenders
  • Results in full report (25-50 pages) with tables,
    charts, maps
  • Price 7,500 - 8,500 plus expenses

8
Some Definitions
  • Trade Area
  • The geographic area from which a store obtains
    most of its sales volume (dollars)
  • Usually defined as that area within which the
    store obtains 65 - 85 of its sales volume
  • Defined in terms of geographic sectors (usually
    Census Tracts)
  • Affected by population density, competition,
    retail synergy, trade area access, barriers, etc.

9
Some Definitions
  • Capture Rate
  • The percentage of a stores sales volume that is
    derived from a specific geographic area such as a
    trade area or trade area sector
  • The amount of sales derived from an area, divided
    by the total sales achieved by the store
  • Usually totals 65 - 85 for a stores trade area

10
Some Definitions
  • Sales Penetration Rate
  • Also defined as Average Sales/Capita
  • The sales derived from a specific trade area
    sector, divided by the relevant population of
    that sector
  • An indicator of a stores strength with respect
    to the population base that exists in the trade
    area sector

11
Some Definitions
  • Demography
  • The characteristics of a population base
  • With respect to natural food stores, usually
    includes race or ethnicity, age, education, type
    of employment, and income
  • Certain demographic characteristics are
    positively related to a natural food stores
    sales penetration rates while others are
    negatively related to a natural food stores
    sales penetration rates

12
Some Definitions
  • Market Potential
  • The annual food-at-home expenditure potential for
    a population base
  • Determined by the prevailing trade area
    socio-economic and demographic characteristics
  • For conventional food, it generally ranges from
    about 2,200 to 2,600 per person, per year
  • For natural food, it generally ranges from about
    225 to 450 per person, per year

13
Phases of a Market Study for aProposed New
Retail Food Co-op
  • Phase I - CAT Survey (existing store)
  • Phase II - Market Area Fieldwork
  • Phase III - Data Analysis and the Preparation of
    a Sales Forecast
  • Phase IV - Preparation of Report
  • Phase V Presentation (if desired)

14
Phase I What is a CAT Survey
  • Defined as a Customer Address and Transaction
    Survey of shoppers at an existing retail food
    co-op, conducted in order to identify where they
    live and how much they spent at the store

15
Phase I What is a CAT Survey
  • CAT Survey Results are used to
  • Allocate a stores sales to the specific
    geographic sectors from which they are derived
  • Define a stores trade area
  • Calculate a stores sales penetration rates in
    the various sectors in its trade area

16
Phase I What is a CAT Survey
  • A CAT Survey serves as a means of measuring a
    stores performance in each of its trade area
    sectors, under certain conditions and assumptions
    with respect to its facility, site and location
    characteristics, its competitive environment, and
    its merchandising and operating practices

17
Phase I What is a CAT Survey
  • Because CAT Surveys are interpreted in light of
    the facility, location, site, market and
    competitive conditions that exist, they form the
    basis for an analog sales forecasting system.
    Completed CAT Surveys thus comprise a database of
    analogs

18
Phase II Fieldwork
  • Fieldwork - an important part of a market study,
    for it allows a trained location research or site
    analyst to supplement population, demography and
    CAT Survey data with personal, impartial
    observations regarding facility/site/location
    characteristics, the competitive environment,
    patterns of retail synergy and trade area access,
    etc.

19
Phase II Fieldwork Facility Characteristics
  • Evaluation of
  • Size and shape of the facility
  • Its layout and position on the site
  • Its condition
  • Its appearance
  • Its applicability as a food store

20
Phase II FieldworkLocation Characteristics
  • Evaluation of
  • Population Density in the trade area
  • Demographic Characteristics of the population in
    the trade area and surrounding the site
  • Retail Synergy type, amount, proximity
  • Trade Area Access
  • Distance and Direction
  • Types of streets/roads
  • Barriers geographic/man-made/perceived

21
Phase II FieldworkSite Characteristics
  • Evaluation of
  • Visibility direction and distance, signage
  • Ingress/egress ease or difficulty, number of
    points, speed limits, lanes, etc.
  • Parking both configuration of the parking lot,
    and its capacity

22
Phase II FieldworkCompetitive Environment
  • Direct Competition
  • Similar merchandise mix
  • Primary appeal toward same shopper clientele
  • Includes other natural food stores, co-ops and
    specialty food stores

23
Phase II FieldworkCompetitive Environment
  • Indirect Competition
  • Strong usually with a natural foods store
    within a store a readily-defined and identified
    department including dry grocery, bulk, HBC,
    frozen, refrigerated, and perhaps meat/seafood
  • Medium usually 4, 8 or 12-foot sections of
    natural food set in conventional gondola runs,
    and identified by shelf-talkers, banners, etc.
  • Weak limited amount of natural food, usually
    integrated with conventional groceries without
    any major product identification

24
Phase II FieldworkCompetitive Impact
  • Adjacent Where the competitor is in close
    proximity to the study store
  • Intercepting Where the competitor exists
    between a population sector and the study store
  • Impacting Where the competitor is closer to a
    population sector than is the study store
  • A single competitor may be rated differently with
    respect to different population sectors

25
Phase III Data Analysis
  • Population history, trends, projections
  • Demography characteristics of trade area
    population including race, age, education,
    employment, and income
  • Per-capita Expenditure Potential
  • Competition direct and indirect, and adjacent,
    impacting, or intercepting
  • Patterns of access local and regional
  • Retail Synergy amount, type, effect

26
Phase IV Analog Sales Forecast
  • An Analog (derived from analogous, meaning
    similar) represents performance data about a
    store (given its facility, site, location, market
    and competitive characteristics) that can be used
    to forecast the performance of another store with
    similar facility, site, location, market and
    competitive characteristics.

27
Phase IV Example of an Analog
28
Phase IV Trade Area Map
29
Phase IV Analog Explained
  • Can be a store (in terms of its performance at
    the trade area level)
  • Can be a sector of a stores trade area.
  • An Analog that represents a good match with
    respect to characteristics of the study store or
    site can thus be used to forecast sales
    penetration levels for the study store or site
    either at the trade area level, or at the
    population sector level.

30
Phase IV Analog Selection
  • By Location Type
  • Free-standing
  • Strip/Community Shopping Center
  • CBD/SBD/FBD
  • Downtown/Suburban/Edge of Town
  • Neighborhood/Regional/Highway

31
Phase IV Analog Selection
  • By Store Size/Specialty Departments
  • Sales Area Size
  • Presence or Absence of
  • Meat/Seafood Department
  • Deli (service/self service)
  • Bakery
  • Café Seating Area
  • Coffee bar/juice bar

32
Phase IV Analog Selection
  • By Population Density
  • Urban
  • Suburban
  • Rural
  • The greater the density of population, the lower
    sales penetration levels tend to be

33
Phase IV Analog Selection
  • According to Demography
  • Ethnicity
  • Age Groups
  • Educational Attainment
  • Employment Type
  • Income Level (MHI, HH with incomes 50 - 150
    K)

34
Phase IV Analog Selection
  • According to Competition
  • Direct Competition number, type, locations
  • Indirect Competition
  • Strong
  • Medium
  • Weak

35
Phase IV Analog Selection
  • According to Distance
  • Other things being equal, sales/capita levels
    tend to decrease as distance from the store
    increases
  • Because of the importance of demography in the
    performance of a natural food store or co-op,
    distance alone is not enough

36
Phase V Market Study Report
  • Introduction and Background
  • Summary of Findings and Conclusions
  • Review of Study Methodology
  • Review of Facility, Site, Location
    Characteristics
  • Definition and Description of Relevant Trade Area
  • Review of the Competitive Environment
  • Market Analysis of Relevant Scenarios
  • Maps, Tables, Charts

37
SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
  • It Provides a Reliable Method for Defining the
    Relevant Trade Area to be Served, and the Levels
    of Sales Penetration to Be Achieved in it

38
SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
  • It Provides an Objective Review of the Location,
    Site and Facility Characteristics that Impact a
    Stores Sales Performance

39
SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
  • It Provides an Impartial Review of the
    Competitive Environment that Affects the Stores
    Sales Performance

40
SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
  • It Provides an Advanced Sales Forecasting
    Technique with Respect to the Anticipated Sales
    to be Achieved during First Few Years of the
    Stores Operation

41
SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
  • It provides a means for evaluating the financial
    implications of opening a new retail food co-op,
    by providing the top line number to be used in
    the pro-forma operating statement

42
SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
  • It Serves as a Tool
  • for Management
  • for Marketing
  • for the Membership
  • for the Bank

43
THANK YOU
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