Title: LOCATION RESEARCH AND SITE ANALYSIS FOR NEW FOOD COOPS
1LOCATION RESEARCHAND SITE ANALYSISFOR NEW FOOD
CO-OPS
- A Presentation for Co-op 500 by
- Peter C. Davis
- Location Research Consultant
- Cooperative Development Services
2Location Research Defined
- The body of knowledge and research methodologies
used for - The development of strategies for market entry or
expansion - The evaluation of retail locations and sites
- The forecasting of expected sales levels given
alternative scenarios/assumptions
3Site Analysis Explained
- The major location research activity associated
with the evaluation of a retail food store site - The market at large
- The trade area served by the store
- The competitive environment
- The location (in the marketing sense)
- The site (in the physical, real estate sense)
- The facility
4Three Levels ofResearch Analysis
- First Level Basic Q D Study
- Second Level Enhanced Q D Study
- Third Level Full Market Study
5First Level Basic Q D
- An in-office assessment of the level of market
potential available - A macro-level estimate of sales potential
available to a retail food co-op - Based totally on secondary, in-office data
- No local input of data or observations
- Results in a 1-2 page summary that helps
determine the likelihood of go/no-go - Price 1,000 - 1,200
6Second Level Enhanced Q D
- Everything included in the Basic Q D Study
- Also provides for local input regarding
- Trade area size and configuration
- Population history and growth
- Competition
- Site/Location characteristics
- Any other insights into the local market
- No fieldwork is conducted
- Provides for a somewhat more reliable evaluation
of a natural food store opportunity, presented in
a 2-3 page summary report - Price 1,500 - 1,800
7Third Level Full Market Study
- Utilizes both primary and secondary data
- Includes extensive fieldwork in order to
- Evaluate site location characteristics
- Evaluate competitive environment
- Evaluate patterns of accessibility
- Evaluate extent of retail synergy
- Utilizes detailed analog sales forecasting
- Generally acceptable by potential lenders
- Results in full report (25-50 pages) with tables,
charts, maps - Price 7,500 - 8,500 plus expenses
8Some Definitions
- Trade Area
- The geographic area from which a store obtains
most of its sales volume (dollars) - Usually defined as that area within which the
store obtains 65 - 85 of its sales volume - Defined in terms of geographic sectors (usually
Census Tracts) - Affected by population density, competition,
retail synergy, trade area access, barriers, etc.
9Some Definitions
- Capture Rate
- The percentage of a stores sales volume that is
derived from a specific geographic area such as a
trade area or trade area sector - The amount of sales derived from an area, divided
by the total sales achieved by the store - Usually totals 65 - 85 for a stores trade area
10Some Definitions
- Sales Penetration Rate
- Also defined as Average Sales/Capita
- The sales derived from a specific trade area
sector, divided by the relevant population of
that sector - An indicator of a stores strength with respect
to the population base that exists in the trade
area sector
11Some Definitions
- Demography
- The characteristics of a population base
- With respect to natural food stores, usually
includes race or ethnicity, age, education, type
of employment, and income - Certain demographic characteristics are
positively related to a natural food stores
sales penetration rates while others are
negatively related to a natural food stores
sales penetration rates
12Some Definitions
- Market Potential
- The annual food-at-home expenditure potential for
a population base - Determined by the prevailing trade area
socio-economic and demographic characteristics - For conventional food, it generally ranges from
about 2,200 to 2,600 per person, per year - For natural food, it generally ranges from about
225 to 450 per person, per year
13Phases of a Market Study for aProposed New
Retail Food Co-op
- Phase I - CAT Survey (existing store)
- Phase II - Market Area Fieldwork
- Phase III - Data Analysis and the Preparation of
a Sales Forecast - Phase IV - Preparation of Report
- Phase V Presentation (if desired)
14Phase I What is a CAT Survey
- Defined as a Customer Address and Transaction
Survey of shoppers at an existing retail food
co-op, conducted in order to identify where they
live and how much they spent at the store
15Phase I What is a CAT Survey
- CAT Survey Results are used to
- Allocate a stores sales to the specific
geographic sectors from which they are derived - Define a stores trade area
- Calculate a stores sales penetration rates in
the various sectors in its trade area
16Phase I What is a CAT Survey
- A CAT Survey serves as a means of measuring a
stores performance in each of its trade area
sectors, under certain conditions and assumptions
with respect to its facility, site and location
characteristics, its competitive environment, and
its merchandising and operating practices
17Phase I What is a CAT Survey
- Because CAT Surveys are interpreted in light of
the facility, location, site, market and
competitive conditions that exist, they form the
basis for an analog sales forecasting system.
Completed CAT Surveys thus comprise a database of
analogs
18Phase II Fieldwork
- Fieldwork - an important part of a market study,
for it allows a trained location research or site
analyst to supplement population, demography and
CAT Survey data with personal, impartial
observations regarding facility/site/location
characteristics, the competitive environment,
patterns of retail synergy and trade area access,
etc.
19Phase II Fieldwork Facility Characteristics
- Evaluation of
- Size and shape of the facility
- Its layout and position on the site
- Its condition
- Its appearance
- Its applicability as a food store
20Phase II FieldworkLocation Characteristics
- Evaluation of
- Population Density in the trade area
- Demographic Characteristics of the population in
the trade area and surrounding the site - Retail Synergy type, amount, proximity
- Trade Area Access
- Distance and Direction
- Types of streets/roads
- Barriers geographic/man-made/perceived
21Phase II FieldworkSite Characteristics
- Evaluation of
- Visibility direction and distance, signage
- Ingress/egress ease or difficulty, number of
points, speed limits, lanes, etc. - Parking both configuration of the parking lot,
and its capacity
22Phase II FieldworkCompetitive Environment
- Direct Competition
- Similar merchandise mix
- Primary appeal toward same shopper clientele
- Includes other natural food stores, co-ops and
specialty food stores
23Phase II FieldworkCompetitive Environment
- Indirect Competition
- Strong usually with a natural foods store
within a store a readily-defined and identified
department including dry grocery, bulk, HBC,
frozen, refrigerated, and perhaps meat/seafood - Medium usually 4, 8 or 12-foot sections of
natural food set in conventional gondola runs,
and identified by shelf-talkers, banners, etc. - Weak limited amount of natural food, usually
integrated with conventional groceries without
any major product identification
24Phase II FieldworkCompetitive Impact
- Adjacent Where the competitor is in close
proximity to the study store - Intercepting Where the competitor exists
between a population sector and the study store - Impacting Where the competitor is closer to a
population sector than is the study store - A single competitor may be rated differently with
respect to different population sectors
25Phase III Data Analysis
- Population history, trends, projections
- Demography characteristics of trade area
population including race, age, education,
employment, and income - Per-capita Expenditure Potential
- Competition direct and indirect, and adjacent,
impacting, or intercepting - Patterns of access local and regional
- Retail Synergy amount, type, effect
26Phase IV Analog Sales Forecast
- An Analog (derived from analogous, meaning
similar) represents performance data about a
store (given its facility, site, location, market
and competitive characteristics) that can be used
to forecast the performance of another store with
similar facility, site, location, market and
competitive characteristics.
27Phase IV Example of an Analog
28Phase IV Trade Area Map
29Phase IV Analog Explained
- Can be a store (in terms of its performance at
the trade area level) - Can be a sector of a stores trade area.
- An Analog that represents a good match with
respect to characteristics of the study store or
site can thus be used to forecast sales
penetration levels for the study store or site
either at the trade area level, or at the
population sector level.
30Phase IV Analog Selection
- By Location Type
- Free-standing
- Strip/Community Shopping Center
- CBD/SBD/FBD
- Downtown/Suburban/Edge of Town
- Neighborhood/Regional/Highway
31Phase IV Analog Selection
- By Store Size/Specialty Departments
- Sales Area Size
- Presence or Absence of
- Meat/Seafood Department
- Deli (service/self service)
- Bakery
- Café Seating Area
- Coffee bar/juice bar
32Phase IV Analog Selection
- By Population Density
- Urban
- Suburban
- Rural
- The greater the density of population, the lower
sales penetration levels tend to be
33Phase IV Analog Selection
- According to Demography
- Ethnicity
- Age Groups
- Educational Attainment
- Employment Type
- Income Level (MHI, HH with incomes 50 - 150
K)
34Phase IV Analog Selection
- According to Competition
- Direct Competition number, type, locations
- Indirect Competition
- Strong
- Medium
- Weak
35Phase IV Analog Selection
- According to Distance
- Other things being equal, sales/capita levels
tend to decrease as distance from the store
increases - Because of the importance of demography in the
performance of a natural food store or co-op,
distance alone is not enough
36Phase V Market Study Report
- Introduction and Background
- Summary of Findings and Conclusions
- Review of Study Methodology
- Review of Facility, Site, Location
Characteristics - Definition and Description of Relevant Trade Area
- Review of the Competitive Environment
- Market Analysis of Relevant Scenarios
- Maps, Tables, Charts
37SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
- It Provides a Reliable Method for Defining the
Relevant Trade Area to be Served, and the Levels
of Sales Penetration to Be Achieved in it
38SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
- It Provides an Objective Review of the Location,
Site and Facility Characteristics that Impact a
Stores Sales Performance
39SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
- It Provides an Impartial Review of the
Competitive Environment that Affects the Stores
Sales Performance
40SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
- It Provides an Advanced Sales Forecasting
Technique with Respect to the Anticipated Sales
to be Achieved during First Few Years of the
Stores Operation
41SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
- It provides a means for evaluating the financial
implications of opening a new retail food co-op,
by providing the top line number to be used in
the pro-forma operating statement
42SO WHY DO A MARKET STUDY?
- It Serves as a Tool
- for Management
- for Marketing
- for the Membership
- for the Bank
43THANK YOU