8-a. What is Sustainability

1
8-a.What is Sustainability How Does it Relate
to Natural Resource Management?

• Larry D. Sanders
• (SPRING 2006)

Dept. of Ag Economics Oklahoma State
University
2
INTRODUCTION--ch. 11-12 Hackett Lectures 21
Mar, 4 Apr

• Purpose
• to become aware of the concept of sustainability
  long term thinking
• Learning Objectives. To understand/become aware
  of
• 1. The concept of sustainability with respect to
  agriculture.
• 2. The concept of sustainability with respect to
  poor developing countries the global system
• 3. The importance of long term thinking to avoid
  possibly irreversible or very costly damage
  loss of life

3
Imperatives for Sustainable Systems
Economy (efficiency)
Individual/ Community (cohesion)
Environment (maintain/ enhance)
4
Sustainability

• Normative standard/social goal
• Vision of the future
• Iroquois Confederation (7 generations)
• More inclusive/comprehensive view of economic
  development/well-being
• Whatever it takes to maintain the lives
  livelihoods of people in the system

5
Sustainable Agriculture, as an example

• An integrated system of plant animal
  production practices having a site specific
  application that will, over the long term
  satisfy human food fiber needs enhance
  environmental quality the natural resource
  base upon which the agricultural economy depends
  make the most efficient use of nonrenewable
  resources and on-farm resources and integrate,
  where appropriate, natural biological cycles
  controls sustain the economic viability of farm
  farm operation and enhance the quality of life
  for farmers and society as a whole.
• --The Food, Agriculture, Conservation, Trade
  Act of 1990

6
5 Capitals of Viederman

• 1. Natures Capital the flow of natural
  resources cycling of waste ( life-sustaining
  ecosystem)
• 2. Human Capital people using knowledge/skills
  to function
• 3. Human-created Capital technology
  productive facilities
• 4. Social Capital networks of civic
  institutions norms
• 5. Cultural Capital myths/stories/visions
  shared by people

7
Sustainability as an Ethical Standard

• Individualism vs. interdependence
• Need buy-in by key participants
• Crosses disciplines
• Concept of multifunctionality for sustaining
  farms

8
Energy Consumption by Primary Source

• Pre 17th century human, animal, hydro
• 1635-1880 Wood
• 1880-1945 Coal
• 1945-Present Petroleum
• (80 of energy from fossil fuels)
• 2030 ???

9
US Energy Production by Source, 2000 (quadrillion
btu) US imports 30 of energy consumption
Flexible Energy, Inc., Fall 2001 Energy Review
www.flexibleenergy.com
10
Energy Trends--Sustainable?(1990-2000 annual
growth rates)

• Wind Power (22)
• Solar (16)
• Geothermal (4)
• Oil Production (2)
• Hydro Power (2)
• Nuclear Power (1)
• Coal (0)

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US Energy Supply, 2004
Coal 23
Nuclear 8
NG 23
Renewable 6 --Biomass 47 --Hydro
45 --Geothermal 5 --Wind 2 --Solar 1
Petroleum 40
DOE, EIA, Renewable Energy Trends 2004.
14
World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1970-2025
(quadrillion Btu)
Energy Information Administration, DOE, 2004.
15
The Physics of Energy--Sustainability difficult
to maintain

• Energy the capacity for doing work
• The First Law of Thermodynamics the energy of
  the universe remains constant (nothing is
  destroyed also known as the Law of Conservation
  of Matter Energy)
• The Second Law of Thermodynamics entropy always
  moves toward a maximum (energy moves from order
  to disorder also known as the Law of Energy
  Degradation)

16
Entropy Energy Economics

• Gross vs. Net Energy
• Economic Reserves
• Exponential Growth
• Irreversibility
• Externalities

17
Exponential Growth the 29th Day

• A French riddle for children illustrates another
  aspect of exponential growth--the apparent
  suddenness with which it approaches a fixed
  limit. Suppose you own a pond on which a water
  lily is growing. The lily plant doubles in size
  each day. If the lily were allowed to grow
  unchecked, it would completely cover the pond in
  30 days, choking off other forms of life in the
  water. For a long time the lily plant seems
  small, so you decide not to worry about cutting
  it back until it covers half the pond. On what
  day will that be? On the 29th day, of course.
  You have one day to save your pond. (D. Meadows
  et al, 1972)

18
Exponential Growth Doubling Time

• Growth Rate () Doubling Time (yrs)
• 0.1 700
• 0.5 140
• 1.0 70
• 4.0 18
• 7.0 10
• 10.0 7

19
Energy Reserves--Past Predictions
Reserves

• Meadows et al estimates of selected nonrenewable
  resource reserves, static vs. exponential (1972)
• Natural Gas--38-22 years
• Petroleum--31-20 years
• Coal--2300-111 years
• What did Meadows overlook or underestimate?

OIL
NATURAL GAS
COAL
1992
1994
2083
time
20
Classification of Hydrocarbon other
Nonrenewable Resources (Harris)
KNOWN
UNKNOWN

• RESERVES
• Demonstrated
• Measured
• Indicated
• Inferred

• Hypothetical
• Speculative

ECONOMIC
Economic

• Undiscoverable
• Irretrievable

SUBECONOMIC/
Technological/Geological Feasibility
21
Petroleum Fuel Estimates Historically Conservative

• Liquid-reserves revisions plus new discoveries
  have kept ahead of consumption during 1990s
• In 2003, confirmed liquid-resources in 1992 were
  26 higher reserves than originally estimated
• In 2003, confirmed gas resources discovered in
  1992 were 36 greater resources than originally
  estimated
• Upward revisions to previous global reserves
  estimates account for about 75 of all additions
• Alexanders Gas Oil Connections, volume 8,
  Issue 21, 30 Oct 03 www.gasandoil.com

22
Energy--Policy Environment to achieve
sustainability

• National Energy Strategy
• How to achieve MC(s) MB(s)?
• Market Pollution Permits
• Per unit Pollution Taxes
• Liability Bonding Systems for Large Stationary
  Polluters
• Fuel Taxes, Options Impacts

23
Energy--Transition to Future Fuels for
Sustainability

• Transition
• Increasing costs
• Alternative Fuel /or New Technology
• Policy Options
• Research Development
• Regulation
• Tax
• Market Incentives

24
Trends in Renewable Energy

• Wind, solar electricity costs
• reduced by 80-90 1980-2000
• Projected competitive 2005-2015
• Spain, Germany, Denmark provide over 20
  electricity w/wind power
• US provides 6 of total energy use w/renewable
  energy 86 w/coal, oil, natural gas
• Fossil fuels provide 75 of total energy
  world-wide biomass provides about 13
• US per capita energy use growth rate falling from
  7 in 1960s to 2 in 2000
• Union of Concerned Scientists, Clean Energy,
  www.ucsusa.org
• Energy Information Administration, DOE.

25
Alternative Energy Costs, 2003

• Average national price of electricity 0.08/kwh
• 24.04/Btu, 2000
• Solar-electric (photovoltaic) 0.20/kwh
• Solar-heat (thermal panels) 0.08/kwh
• Wind-electric 0.04/kwh
• Ground-heat pump 0.03/kwh
• Gasoline 12.58/Btu, 2000
• Natural gas 7.49/Btu, 2000
• National Geographic News, 28 Oct 2004.
• heat pump cost inferred, not stated.
• Flexible Energy, Inc.

26
World Marketed Energy Consumption by Energy
Source, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)
Energy Information Administration, DOE, 2004.
27
Energy Use in US2000
Union of Concerned Scientists, Clean Energy,
www.ucsusa.org
28
Government Subsidies Matter to Many Energy
Sources

• Nuclear energy received 145 bil. in federal
  subsidies 1943-1999
• Solary energy received 4.4 bil.
• Wind energy received 1.3 bil.
• Oil/gas projected to receive 11 bil. tax breaks
  1999-2003
• Union of Concerned Scientists, Clean Energy,
  www.ucsusa.org

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How much will change in the future?

• In the long term 2020, . . . with fossil fuels
  remaining the dominant source of energy. . . .,
  our dependence on foreign sources of petroleum is
  expected to increase and domestic natural gas
  production and natural gas imports are expected
  to grow significantly.
• --Mary J. Hutzler, Department of Energy, March
  21, 2001 (www.eia.doe.gov)

30
World CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel, 1970-2025
(billion metric tons co2)
Energy Information Administration, DOE, 2004.
31
Agrarian Evolution Long Term Thinking

• Process of agricultural evolution has led to a
  small percentage of large farms producing most of
  sales in US
• displaced farm labor has moved into non-ag sector
  either in rural communities becoming more
  diversified or moving to urban areas
• Agricultural evolution in developing countries
  more rapid, more disruptive, more destructive
  harmful
• 40-50 world population lives in urban slums

32
Urban/environmental pressures increasing

• Low-income countries face water shortages, water
  pollution, air pollution, minimal shelter
  shortages, transportation stresses
• Industrialization that is needed to uplift
  economies will result in greater stresses on
  environment natural resource base
• 1.2-1.3 billion in absolute poverty
• 2/3 of world population live on less than 2/day

33
Market Myopia?

• Biased w/short term perspective
• Discount rates favor present devalue long term
• Tend to under-value cultural/social costs

34
Population Food Production

• Distribution is an issue
• AREA POPULATION FOOD
• ASIA 40 15
• AFRICA 10 5
• L. AMERICA 10 10
• EUROPE 25 45
• N. AMERICA 10 25
• OTHER 5 1
• NOTE While global distribution is an issue,
  hunger exists in all parts of the world,
  including the developed Western countries of
  Europe and the US.

35
World Hunger

• Each minute 20-35 humans die from hunger
  malnutrition
• 7-20 are children
• At minimum, equals a Hiroshima every 5 days
  (140,000)
• Chronic Hunger Malnutrition 14 of World
  Population
• 842 million people
• Lack of food and vatamin/mineral deficiencies
  (iron, A, iodine, zinc)
• Source World Food Day, various programs

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World Hunger (cont.)

• Point of comparison All Wars/conflicts of 20th
  century claimed 130 mil-260 mil.
• Hunger Deaths in Past 10 yrs 100-200 mil.
• 250,000 infants/small children may die each week
  from diet-related, easily preventable diseases
• Thousands more--diet-related blindness physical
  mental retardation
• Source World Food Day, various programs.

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HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH, ESTIMATED PROJECTED
(3 Million BC-2036)
8000 BC 5-10 MIL. 5000 BC 20 MIL 3000 BC 50
MIL. 1400 BC 100 MIL. 0 200 MIL. 1200 400
MIL. 1700 800 MIL. 1900 1.5 BIL. 1960 3
BIL. 1996 6 BIL. 2006 6.5 bil. 2036-50 11-12
BIL???
MILLION HUMANS
YEAR
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Local, Regional, Global Conflicts Likely to
Increase

• Land stress
• Water stress
• 2025 48 countries
• 2050 52 countries
• Energy stress
• Pollution stress
• Health stress
• Source M. Hamm, Integrating Local and Global
  Food Systems, NPPEC, St. Louis, September 2004

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World Hunger (cont.)

• World Hunger is NOT a food production problem
• Technology alone wont solve the problem
• Monoculture export agriculture may worsen problem
• Patent movement may worsen problem
• Economics--poverty--is the problem
• 1.2 billion people are below poverty level
• Distribution of resources is part of that
• Education is critical to the solution

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World Hunger (cont.)

• What causes poverty is complex and often varies
• Geography, weather, manmade conflicts, bad
  policies, corruption
• Economic development is the key
• Education is the foundation for economic
  development
• But . . .
• What is the carrying capacity of earth?
• Will the US allow development outside its plan?
• What pressures can we expect to worsen?
• Economic?
• Physical?
• Sociopolitical?
• Does population tend to stabilize as economy and
  distribution improve?

41
Poor Countries less efficient in energy use, thus
more wasteful polluting

• Developed (relatively wealthy) countries have
  decreased CO2/GDP emissions 50 in past 30 years
• Low-income countries produce about 5x more
  emissions/GDP than rich countries
• Example
• 1. US co2 emissions/person 24x India
• 2. US co2 emissions/GDP 1/3 of India levels

42
Poor Countries access to clean air/water result
in severe health problems

• Over 1 billion people dont have access to safe
  drinking water
• 2 billion dont have adequate sanitation
• High rates of illness/disabilities

43
Economic Development Argument

• Raise people out of poverty
• Lower fertility rates
• Increase use of cleaner, less resource-intensive
  technologies
• Often destructive to culture
• More sustainable?
• No guarantee that technology will keep up
• tendency for multinational corporate exploitation
• failures of empowerment often occur (especially
  w/women), leading to dependency, injustice,
  corruption, more exploitation, political
  destabilization

44
Income Distribution increasingly skewed

• Wealthiest 20 of world population accounts for
  83 of world income
• Poorest 20 account for 1.4 of world income
• Gap has more than doubled since 1960
• US Top 1 have as much after tax income as
  bottom 100 million people (60)

45
Arguments for failure of sustainable
environmental systems

• Rural poor living in fragile ecosystems
• Ineffective property rights/lack of enforcement
• Concentration of power/lack of accountability
  (especially w/multinationals, non-democratic
  governments)
• Trade in waste/toxics
• Trade agreements that weaken environmental
  protection

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Arguments for failure of sustainable
environmental systems (continued)

• Political power controlling lack of public
  access
• Government/corporate control of news media
• Market has a short term perspective
• Tax incentives distort environment/natural
  resource management
• Lack of leadershp in fostering ethical vision of
  sustainability
• Cultural dysfunction may lead to social problems

47
Alternatives that may lead to sustainable global
situation

• Disaster(s) cause rapid reduction in population?
• Government intervention?
• incentives
• command control
• new world order
• Free Market may work?
• Multinationals take over?

48
Major Fuel Prices
per 1,000 cu. ft.
per gallon
76
Gasoline, Regular /gal
2.32
Diesel, No.1 /gal
1.32
Natural Gas, Wellhead /mcf
Source U.S. Dept of Energy, EIA
49
Energy Costs as a Share of COP Vary by Crop
Source Ag Census, 2002.
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Sources

• Alexanders Gas Oil Connections, volume 8,
  Issue 21, 30 Oct 03 www.gasandoil.com
• Energy Information Administration, DOE,
  International Energy Outlook 2004,
• www.eia.doe.gov
• Flexible Energy, Inc., Fall 2001 Energy Review
  www.flexibleenergy.com
• Hackett, text.
• Hamm, M. Integrating Local and Global Food
  Systems, NPPEC, St. Louis, September 2004.
• Harris, J., Environmental and Natural Resource
  Economics,Houghton Mifflin Co., 2002 (slide 19,
  Lesson 12a this course adapted from US Bureau of
  Mines USGS, 1976).
• Mary J. Hutzler, Department of Energy, March 21,
  2001(www.eia.doe.gov)
• Union of Concerned Scientists, Clean Energy,
  www.ucsusa.org
• World Food Day, United Nations, various programs.

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L8a Homework

• Read Ch. 11, Hackett (21 Mar)
• Read Ch. 12, Hackett (23 Mar)
• Do 2, p. 282 (23 Mar) 4 points
• Do 6, p. 322 (28 Mar) 4 points
• Refer to Internet Links (30 Mar) 3 points
• Select 2 links (pp. 282-283)
• Briefly review, including
• Content
• Bias or objectivity
• Likely use of material
• Refer to Internet Links (4 Apr) 3 points
• Select 2 links (pp. 323)
• Briefly review, including
• Content
• Bias or objectivity
• Likely use of material
• Alternate Homework--tba