11062009

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The North Korean Nuclear Test Conflicting Views
on the Problem

• POLICY DIALOGUE
• European Policy Centre
• 13 December 2006
• Maelbeek Room, Residence Palace, 155 rue de la
  Loi, 1040, Brussels

2
Introduction

• The Nuclear Test Was it or Was it Not?
• Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear
  Program?
• Implications for the Region
• Whither the Six-Party Talks?
• The Role of Europe

3
The Nuclear Test Was it or Was it Not?

• Russia received a two-hour warning and assumed
   the power of detonation was equivalent to 5-15
  killotons of dynamite and never revised its
  opinion
• China received 20 min. warning and assumed  the
  power was 4 -10 kilotons  but later revised its
  opinion
• South Korean Earthquake Research Centre in
  Daejeon received no warning and assumed the power
  was 800 tons
• US Military, 10 days after the test, assumed the
  power of detonation was 500 tons

4
Alleged Test Site
5
Test Circumstances

• Two years after a mysterious mushroom cloud
  appeared in the same area one day before DPRK
  National Day (8.9.2004.)
• After the unsuccessful test of Teapodong-2
• in July 2006 (on US Independence Day)
• One day before the Korean Workers Party Day
  (9.10.2006)
• Every test (failed or successful) is designed to
  attract domestic and international attention

6
Northeast Asia (NEA) - The Region of
Instability?
7
Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear
Program?

• For North Korea
• Energy source for devastated economy
• Bargaining tool in negotiations with the West
• Domestically, creation of the image of strong
  and powerful nation in line with the Army First
  Politics
• Potential use in case of military conflict

8
Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear
Program?

• China and Russia believe that
• The North Korean economy may improve (less
  handouts will be needed from PRC and Russia)
• The North Korean state will strengthen due to
  increased domestic mobilization (which will
  reduce the chance of regime collapse and
  subsequent chaos, refugees, etc.)
• North Korea might be able to defend itself in
  case of open military conflict (China and Russia
  may not need to fulfill their Security Treaty
  obligations)

9
Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear
Program?

• US and Japan expect that
• North Korea will continue to suffer from the
  UN-imposed sanctions (which entail the higher
  chance of regime implosion)
• The negative image of North Korea can be used to
  achieve their own domestic and international
  goals (US presence in the region will continue,
  US-Japanese strategic alliance will strengthen)

10
Who Benefits from the North Korean Nuclear
Program?

• South Korea experiences
• Decline in Foreign Direct Investments
• (potential investors fear instability)
• Tourism diverted, the opening of new
  transportation routs suspended (inter-Korean
  railway, maritime links, airspace)
• Difficulty in pursuing the policy of engagement
  (Sunshine Policy / Peace and Prosperity) and
  the policy of deterrence (PSI) at the same time
• A domestic split in public opinion
• (South-South Conflict)

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Whither the Six-Party Talks?
USA
RUSSIA
DPRK
PRC
JAPAN
ROK
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Whither the Six-Party Talks?

• Impossible to combine the interests of six
  different participants (who have traditionally
  belonged to opposing security alliances) without
  reproducing the onld  cold war  structure

USA
RUSSIA
DPRK
ROK
JAPAN
PRC
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Six-Party Talks

• Must be replaced by bilateral negotiations on
  mutual security assurance and economic
  cooperation to create a new regional picture

PRC
RUSSIA
USA
DPRK
ROK
JAPAN
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Six-Party Talks

• Could be resumed in the future to set up a
  permanent regional forum in Northeast Asia
• May become attractive for new members

USA
RUSSIA
DPRK
JAPAN
ROK
PRC
Mongolia
TAIWAN
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What is the Role of Europe?

• Mediating role in security negotiations
• Credit assuarance for DPRK joining international
  finacial institutions (ADB, IMF, etc.)
• Supervision of technology transfer
• Education and Training

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Turining Northeast Asia into the Region of Peace
and Prosperity

• The key to the North Korean nuclear problem lies
  
• in the hands of the United States
• Cooperation between NEA powers is crucial
• European involvement is desirable

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Want to Know More about North Korea?

• Visit www.north-korea.boom.ru