Delivering Deepwater Developments in Australasia

1
infield
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS
Australasian Deepwater Opportunities Global
Context
Will Rowley - Director of Analytical Services
Infield Systems Ltd.
www.infield.com
2
Contents

• Introduction
• Definitions Clarification
• Global Deepwater Trends Sectors
• Regions Comparisons Drivers
• Australasia Development Strategies
• Opportunities

Free world map of deepwater regions activity
limited quantity
3
Infield Systems Ltd, aka Infield or ISL

• Established over 18 yrs, specialist boutique in
  offshore energy
• Highly respected internationally with clients in
  every continent
• Clients - operators, contractors, suppliers,
  Governments NGOs
• Worldwide offshore coverage unique data info
• Service provider (direct indirect) to over
  87 offshore industry
• Full suite of products and services data,
  publications services
• Highly developed modelling forecasting system
  - OFFPEX
• Tailored reports, studies, surveys, models
  forecasts, due diligence
• Support to Operations, Strategic Investor
  Relations

To international operators contractors that
account for operations on over 87 of the
annualised offshore capex worldwide
4
Definitions Clarifications
Water-depth

Shallow lt500m Deepwater 500m Ultra-deepwater
1500m subset of deepwater
Units, Values terminology
Units as noted Values USm, Development
Expenditure Prospects Identified
developments Forecasts ISL view on reality of
next five years (units ) Trends Indications
for 5yr
5
Definitions Clarifications - Regions
6
Global Deepwater Trends Sectors
7
Nos. offshore fields in prospect p.a worldwide
Prospects not forecasts
Actual
Prospects
300
250
Most of these very low status, marginal wont
be developed and form a bow wave to the right
200
Nos.
150
100
50
0
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Not forgetting the unknown potential of deepwater
8
No. fields due on-stream growing on the back of
extensive (and expensive) EA activity over past
5 yrs
60
50
40
30
Nos.
20
10
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
9
Deepwater development solutions under
consideration - prospects
45
Notice lag of subsea to floating high
visibility of subsea prospects
40
Fixed Subsea
35
Fixed
30
25
Nos
Subsea to shore growth area, Egypt, Norway,
Brazil
20
15
10
5
0
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Lack of visibility of development solutions in
the longer term even with deepwater
10
Expenditure Levels
Some Key Notes Assumptions to Forecasts
Bottom-up, project-by-project assessment Forecasts
0-5yrs Trends Indicators 5-10yrs Oil price
scenario 18-22/bbl default Global economy
range, static to positive growth (0-3) One major
global incident every 3-5 years Project
expenditure cross-checked to operators field
owners Full transparency of methodology,
assumptions and forecasts Final forecasts to 2009
subject to minor change as verification of
modelling is completed
11
Scale of deepwater activity key sectors
6000
5000
4000
m
3000
2000
1000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Year of Spend
55bn deepwater development expenditure 05-09
all sectors
Peaking at 13.7bn in 2006 installed facilities
infrastructure costs
12
Platform Expenditure
6000
5000
4000
Or the first in a series of development waves?
early indicators
m
3000
2000
What could impact on this trend?
1000
0
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
US GoM, West Africa, India, China, Mexico,
Indonesia, Malaysia etc
Actual Year of Spend
13
Development scenarios
Forecast
Trend
Actual
6000
5000
But still close to 3bn/yr spent on platforms in
the longer term
4000
m
3000
2000
1000
Rationale -
0
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Actual Year of Spend
Need to ascertain success of current crop of
large facilities return on investment
Part of peak one-off infrastructure development
West Africa hubs
Cheaper development solutions especially in new
deepwater arenas
Increasing focus on subsea
14
Average Platform Cost at Sanction (Actual
Intentions)

• 600

• 500

• 400

• m

• 300

• 200

Forecast Trend After Lessons Learnt

• 100

• 0

• 1985

• 1988

• 1991

• 1994

• 1997

• 2000

• 2003

• 2006

• 2009

• Year Of Sanction

Only a small number of major operators can afford
the newbuild mega-projects that have been a
feature of the past few years
Few other companies can afford the risk these
projects now bring and in the short-term many
of these have their hands full with existing
developments
15
In terms of the number of deepwater platforms
installed
00-04 35
18
16
Other Fixed
04-08 68
14
12
59 FPSO (Africa, Brazil, Asia Australasia)
10
Nos.
8
6
Notice low visibility of Spars TLPs
reflection of their short development schedules
4
2
0
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Installation Year
Note also a lack of projects scheduled for
installation in 2010/11, partly because of
rollover of projects to outside a 5 yr window
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Water Depth Trends
Overall trend continues downward
Increasing diversity of solutions in type and size
Sphere size reflects relative cost scale
17
Dry Tree Solution cost trends
Not all cost trends are upwards mini TLPs
repeat designs pulling average costs down
18
TLP Cost trend by water depth
TLP growing distinction between large small
facilities
Kikeh
19
Spar - Cost trend by water depth
Consistent trend down to 2,000m
Possibilities here in Atwater Valley (US GoM)
20
Cost trend by water depth dry trees
Key zone of interaction between Spars TLPs
Often compete alternative scenarios
21
Deepwater FPSOs
Vary considerably in scale design newbuilds
conversions
22
FPSs Semi-submersibles
Key hub developments in many regions especially
US Brazil
23
Regions Trends Sectors
24
Deepwater reserves due on-stream per annum
Mid-term trend
12,000
10,000
Large Africa fields coming on-stream clearly
visible
8,000
MMBOE
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
25
Deepwater overall expenditure by region
6000
5000
Middle East
4000
Mid-term trend?
3000
m
2000
1000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Year of Spend
Note - growing importance of Africa
Note emergence of Asia Australasia
04-08 m
26
Every Region Experiencing Some Growth (5yr vs 5yr)

• 6000

• 5000

• 4000

• m

• 3000

• 2000

• 1000

• 0

• 1999

• 2000

• 2001

• 2002

• 2003

• 2004

• 2005

• 2006

• 2007

• 2008

• Actual Year of Spend

Significant growth in Asia Australasia
All deepwater sectors
27
Australasia 2 market share 04-08
Small number of developments but an emerging
market
Enfield Stybarrow FPSOs
Led by local players at present
Are there enough prospects to maintain momentum?
Platform expenditure
28
No. of new fields brought on-stream by operators
- Global
The number of fields brought on-stream by top ten
operators increases but it is the remaining
operators who are growing in influence.
The number of field owners is also increasing and
there is a trend of owners eventually moving into
operatorships as their experience grows.
29
Global subsea development expenditure
Australasia subsea - deepwater
30
Worldwide deepwater subsea production well trends
1000m
2000m
3000m
31
Australasia Development Strategies
32
Australasia combined deepwater expenditure
Effectively a new sector
Deepwater ave 83 growth (5yr-on-yr comparison)
Golden triangle ave 74 growth (5yr-on-yr
comparison)
Whilst second smallest region next to fastest
growing (Asia)
33
Asia combined deepwater expenditure
Asia 446 growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) 3.6bn
Deepwater ave 83 growth (5yr-on-yr comparison)
Golden triangle ave 74 growth (5yr-on-yr
comparison)
Already the 4th Most Significant Deepwater Region
34
Asia - Cost trend by water depth all platforms
Year Installed
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
Australasian experience can be used in Asia
200
400
600
800
Kamunsu
WD (m)
1000
1200
Kikeh
1400
1600
1800
2000
The number scale of prospects is growing all
the time the key question is timing
35
Asia Australasia deepwater subsea production
well trends
Continued move into deeper waters expected
36
Across Asia Australasia we are seeing -

• wide range of development scenarios
• innovation in design approach
• steep learning curve
• strong NOC independent lead
• increased need for cooperation on delaying
  issues
• but a growing list of prospects
• world-class opportunities

37
Asian Deepwater Prospects
38
Australia Opportunities
39

• Regional leadership
• To be at the forefront of regional deepwater
  developments
• Potential to develop a long-term deepwater
  programme
• Development of low-cost and flexible solutions
• Cross regional opportunities

40
Australasian Deepwater Prospects
Over 900m of deepwater capex forecast over the
next five years
Conservative forecast much greater potential
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infield
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS
Australasian Deepwater
Will Rowley Director of Analytical Services
Email will_at_infield.com
Deepwater maps available limited
number Presentation is available on request
large file
www.infield.com
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