A Vision of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2020

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A Vision of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in
2020
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Dr. Michael A. Spar, Ph.D. UVA Weldon Cooper
Center
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This Changing Region

• Demography
• Labor Force
• Education

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Demography

• Growth and its components
• Age and gender composition
• Race and ethnicity

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Demography
Steady Population Growth Expected
160,000
120,000
80,000
40,000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Harrisonburg Metro Population, 1950-2030
Source US Bureau of the Census Virginia
Employment Commission
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Demography
How Population Changes
2,500
Net Migration
2,000

Births
1,500
1,000
Deaths
500
Natural Increase
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Components of Population Growth
Source Weldon Cooper Center, Demographics
Workforce Group
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Demography
Baby Boomers Dominate States Population
Males
Females
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
Age Gender, Virginia 2007
Source Weldon Cooper Center, Demographics
Workforce Group
8
Demography
Youth Dominate Local Population
Males
Females
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
Age Gender, Harrisonburg Metro, 2007
Source Weldon Cooper Center, Demographics
Workforce Group
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Demography
Hispanic Population Will Grow
14,000
Hispanic

10,000
6,000
Black
2,000
Asian
2010
2020
2030
2000
Race Ethnicity, Harrisonburg Metro, 2000-30
Source Virginia Employment Commission
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Demography
Race Ethnicity
Virginia
Harrisonburg Metropolitan
5
5
2
2000
4
3
20

91
72
White
Hispanic
9
8
Asian
2
7
3
Black
21
86
64
2020
Source Virginia Employment Commission
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Demography

• Growth continues due to both natural increase and
  net in-migration.
• Age distribution heavily skewed by college-age
  population.
• Hispanic population has highest growth rate, but
  still a relatively small number/proportion of
  total.

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Labor Force
Size

Industries
Occupations
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Labor Force
Labor Force Will Grow
80,000
High Projection 23, 35
70,000
60,000
Low Projection 17, 28
50,000
2000
2010
2020
2030
Civilian Labor Force, Harrisonburg Metro, 2000-30
Source Weldon Cooper Center, Demographics
Workforce Group
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Labor Force
Education, Manufacturing, Trade Predominate
Education, Health, Social Services
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Accommodation, Food Service, Arts
Construction
Other services
Agriculture, Forestry, Mining
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
Professional, Scientific, Management
Transportation, Utilities
Virginia
Wholesale Trade
Harrisonburg Metro
Information
Public Administration
5
10
15
20
25
Industry Employment, 2007
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census
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Labor Force
Where the Jobs Are
45
Harrisonburg Metro
35

Virginia
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15
5
Management Professional
Service
Sales Office
Farming etc.
Construction etc.
Production Transport
Occupational Employment, 2007
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census
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Labor Force
Workforce Investment Area IV
Rockingham
Harrisonburg
Page
Highland

Bath
Rockbridge, Lexington, Buena Vista
Augusta, Staunton, Waynesboro
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Labor Force
Production Employment Falls
16
Office Administrative
14
Sales
-2
Production
Transportation Material Moving
9
Food Preparation Serving
20

Construction Extraction
15
Education, Training, Library
32
Healthcare Technical
32
Installation, Maintenance, Repair
16
2020
Building Grounds Cleaning Maintenance
26
2006
Business Financial Operations
30
Personal Care Service
51
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
WIA IV Employment Projections, 2006-2020
Source Virginia Employment Commission WCCPS
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Labor Force

• The metro areas labor force will be between
  28-35 larger by 2030.
• The local labor force is concentrated in
  Education, Manufacturing, and Trade industries
  and in Construction and Production occupations.
• Fast and slow-growing occupations show a mix of
  educational requirements.

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Education
Public K-12 Enrollment Projections High School
Graduates Dropouts Limited English
Proficiency Adult Educational Attainment High
Education Enrollment Projections

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Education
School Enrollment Will Rise
20,000
K-12
16,000
12,000
K-5
8,000
9-12
4,000
6-8
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Harrisonburg Metro Public School Enrollment
Source Weldon Cooper Center, Demographics
Workforce Group
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Education
Dropout Rate Remains Too High
1,400
1,000
600
200

2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Public School Graduates Dropouts
Source VDOE Weldon Cooper Center, Demographics
Workforce Group
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Education
ESL Resources Will Be Needed
3,000
18
2,500
15
PERCENT
N U M B E R

Percent of K-12 Membership
2,000
12
1,500
9
1,000
6
Number of LEP Students
3
500
1993-94
1995-96
1997-98
1999-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2007-08
Limited English Proficiency Students,Harrisonburg
-Rockingham public schools
Source VDOE
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Education
Educational Attainment Below State Average
Graduate
Virginia
Bachelor

Harrisonburg Metro
Associate
Some college
HS Grad
HS Dropout
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Educational Attainment, 2007, Adults Age 25
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census
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Education
SCHEV Projects Continued Growth in Higher
Education
25,000
JMU Bridgewater
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Higher Education Enrollment
Source State Council of Higher Education for
Virginia
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Education

• Continued public K-12 enrollment growth.
• Highest growth to 2020 in K-5 6-8.
• Public school system will graduate between
  1,000-1,200 each year.
• Anticipate a significant increase in Limited
  English Proficiency (LEP) students.
• Disproportionately high percentages of adult
  population with a HS diploma or less.
• Continued higher education enrollment growth.

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To Do List

• Integrate those with limited English.
• Insure sufficient jobs for the 2020 and 2030
  labor force.
• Increase labor force diversity.
• Retain more college graduates.

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Questions? Contact Mike Spar at [phone],
or by e-mail at mspar_at_virginia.edu This
presentation will be available on our web site
at www.coopercenter.org/demographics/PRESENTATIO
NS/

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