Today

1
Today tomorrow

• 2nd geography test
• Electoral systems
• Exam returned discussion
• Regime type presidential vs. parliamentary
  regimes
• Federalism (next week) Stepan article
• http//muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/
  v010/10.4stepan.html

2
Next exams

• Changes
• More multiple choice questions
• Readings and lectures
• Movies included in the total grade (no extra
  credit)

3
Definitions

• Civilization vs. ethnicity
• Civilization highest cultural grouping short of
  what separates us from other species
• Kuznets effect inequality increases, then
  decreases
• Ethnicity no regional component
• Newly Industrialized Countries vs. Second World

4
Multiple Choice

• (1) Highest rates of growth
• Neither mentioned nor true
• (2) Corrupt form of government by the many
  democracy (see lecture notes)
• (3) Huntington a conservative critique of
  modernization theory (Handelman, notes)
• (4) Inglehart survival vs. well-being and
  traditional vs. secular-rational (notes)

5
Multiple Choice

• (5) While both (a) and (c) may be true, only (b)
  supports Huntingtons thesis
• Movies
• (2) The shooting down of the airplane
• (3) Reducing inequalities

6
Short answers

• (3) Inglehart modernization 1 2 parts
• (4) Huntington six reasons discussion
• E.g., rise of fundamentalism correct, but
  why?
• (5) Vertical accountability military?
• Military vs. democratic hierarchy

7
Institutional Design Conflict Management

• Regime type, electoral system, federalism

8
Institutional design

• Three philosophies/approaches
• Majoritarianism
• Consensualism
• Centripetalism

9
Three major institutions

• Electoral system majoritarian or proportional
• Regime type presidential or parliamentary
• Territorial division of authority unitary vs.
  federal state

10
Reilly Centripetalism

• Can democracy survive in divided societies?
• The politics of outbidding
• Extremist rhetoric and policies more
  rewarding than moderation

11
Classical model of electoral competition
(economic conflicts)
12
Incentives for moderation

• Most voters centrists (moderate) position
• Single-member district, first-past-the-post
  (plurality) elections
• Two-party competition, with moderate
  candidates/parties vying for the center
• Does this logic apply for ethnic conflict?

13
Cultural vs. economic conflicts

• Huntington Cultural characteristics are less
  mutable than political and economic ones
• Or, what are you? rather than which side are
  you on?
• What works in a society characterized primarily
  by economic conflicts (left-vs.-right, or
  liberal-vs.-conservative), does not necessarily
  work in a society where the primary conflicts are
  cultural

14
Ethnic/cultural conflict (e.g., Ukraine)
15
Can formal institutions help?

• What is the nature of ethnic identity?
• Primordial vs. constructed
• Divided society
• Not just (i) ethnically diverse, but also
• (ii) Ethnicity is a politically salient cleavage
  around which interests are organized for
  political purposes (e.g., elections)

16
Institutionalist claim

• (Changing) political institutions
• (Change in) political behavior
• The design of political institutions is paramount
  in conflict management

17
(Electoral) Institutions

• Institutions rules and constraints which shape
  human interaction and, as a consequence,
  behavioral incentives
• Electoral systems
• ? Some ES encourage hostile and uncooperative
  behavior,
• ? While others provide incentives towards
  cooperation, moderation accommodation

18
Centripetalism centripetal institutions

• Centripetal political system centrist, rather
  than extremist, political competition
• Centripetal institutions designed to encourage
  moderate, centrist forms of political
  competition,
• rather than polarizing centrifugal patterns

19
The theory of centripetalism

• Democracy a continual process of conflict
  management
• Conflicts resolved via negotiation and reciprocal
  cooperation, rather than simple majority rule
• Cross-ethnic coalitions undermined by the
  dominance of overarching group identities and
  loyalties

20
Creating inter-group accommodation

• One promising path present political parties and
  candidates with incentives to cooperate across
  ethnic lines
• Electoral institutions (legislative executive
  elections)
• Electoral sequences (federal systems)

21
Benefits

• Encouraging moderate, centrist political
  competition
• Creation of bargaining arenas reciprocal
  interactions are, in and by themselves, likely to
  facilitate cooperation

22
Centripetalism

• A normative theory of institutional design
  designed to encourage three related but distinct
  phenomena in divided societies
• Electoral incentives
• Arenas of bargaining
• Centrist, aggregative political parties

23

• Electoral incentives politicians reach out and
  attract votes from various ethnic groups
• Arenas of bargaining political actors have an
  incentive to bargain and negotiate
• Centrist, aggregative political parties seeking
  multi-ethnic support

24
How?

• Types of electoral systems
• Outcomes Majoritarian vs. proportional
• Incentives conflict vs. bargaining
  cross-group appeals
• Preferential voting

25
Electoral systems

• How votes are translated into seats
• Votes
• Electoral system
• Seats

26
Choosing the electoral system

• Two goals
• (i) Proportionality accurate/fair
  representation
• (ii) Efficiency choosing a government (a
  government that can govern)
• (Third goal? Encouraging cooperation?)

27
Tradeoffs

• Ideally, we would like to have the cake and eat
  it, too maximize both representation and
  efficiency
• Hard to achieve in practice one tends to come at
  the expense of the other
• Prioritize and choose accordingly

28
Two types of electoral formulas

• (i) favor proportionality?
• Choose proportional representation
• (ii) favor efficiency/governability?
• Choose a majoritarian system

29
Electoral systemstwo features

• District magnitude (M) of representatives
  elected in one district
• Formula the specific mechanism translating votes
  into seats

30
Majority/plurality systems

• District magnitude M 1
• Formula
• plurality/FPTP (U.S., U.K., India, Papua New
  Guinea - new)
• majority-runoff (France)
• alternative vote (Australia, Papua New Guinea -
  old)

31
Proportional systems

• District magnitude 1 lt M S (assembly size)
• Formula
• party list PR (Israel, W Europe)
• STV (Single Transferable Vote Ireland, Malta)