The Nuclear Threat

1
The Nuclear Threat

• Real or Imagined?

2
The Nuclear Threat

• NNPT
• The New Members of the Club
• The South African Case
• Iraq
• Iran
• North Korea
• AQ Khan and Pakistan

3
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 1968

• Ratified by 188 states
• Atoms for Peace
• IAEA dual mission of prevention promotion
• The Fissile Bank - Failure
• Goal of disarmament - Failure
• The Big Five (haves) v. have-nots

4
Nuclear Weapons in Iraq

• Saddams WMD program

5
The Nuclear State of the World Iran

• The Shahs nuclear program
• Irans Underground Centrifuge Cascade
• Heavy water reactor at Arak
• UN Security Council Sanctions
• US 2007 NIE

6
Nuclear State of the World N. Korea

• Withdrew from NNPT in 1985
• Clinton Agreement
• The North Korean Detonation on Oct. 9th 2006
• Bush Agreement

7
How to Build the Bomb
8
Loose Nukes

• Cold War Near Misses
• Deterrence and Balance of Power
• The Former Soviet Union Nunn/Luger
• A Dirty Bomb
• Military Utility of Nuclear Weapons
• Regime Security
• AQ Khan and the Black Market

9
AQ Khan

• The Islamic Bomb
• Acquiring fissile materiel
• Acquisition of Centrifuge parts
• North Korea
• Libya
• Iran

10
Chemical Biological Weapons

• Easier to make
• Easier to deploy
• Harder to detect
• Harder to fix blame
• Can be used in an asymmetrical context
• Therefore, harder to deter

11
The Chemical Threat
12
The Terrorist Chemical/Biological Threat

• Bhagwan Shee Rajneesh Cult The Dalles, Oregon
  1984, two county commissioners became sick from
  Salmonella
• Aum Shinrikyu Matsumoto 1994, seven dead, 600
  injured
• Aum Shinrikyu 1995
• The U.S. Postal anthrax attack in 2001, six dead
  from the Ames Strain
• Polonium 210 poisoning of Alexander Litvenenko,
  London, November 2006

13
The Biological Threat

• H5N1/Bird Flu
• 1918 Spanish Lady