Mgt. 519 Projects in Technology Commercialization

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Mgt. 519 Projects in TechnologyCommercialization

• Dr. Steven Walsh

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Week 2 The Process of Technology Forecasting
and Assessment

• Required reading
• Handouts on web
• Trend analysis
• In class Review
• Sample test provided at the end

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Week 2 Technology Forecasting

• Technological forecasting provides a prediction
  to a corporation of the technical trajectory of
  their own or competing technological pathways.
• This is especially important when technological
  substitutes exist or might impinge on the
  products of the company.
• This process usually requires the development of
  a technological trajectory of the firms current
  technology versus a proposed technological
  substitute.

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Outline

• Definition
• Relationship between forecasting and Technology
  Mgt.
• Forecasting as a tool for Technology Mgt.
• Managerial requirements imposed on forecasting
• The probabilistic nature of forecasts
• Trend analysis

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Forecasting-Technology Management Relationship

• Forecasting is intended to bring information to
  the technology management process
• Predicts possible technological changes that
  might affect corporate goals
• Provides useful information to decision makers
• The shape and format of forecasting are
  determined by
• Targeted audience (nation, organization, business
  unit, group of units)
• Audience goals

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Criteria for Good Forecasts

• Credibility to the decision maker
• Utility for the decision-making process
• Reliable information resources
• Well defined and supported assumptions
• Accuracy, which is determinant by time
  horizons-the shorter the horizon, the more
  accurate the forecast

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Common Errors in Forecasting

• Contextual oversights no consideration of
  changes in social, technical, or/and economic
  contexts
• Forecaster biases
• Conscious to protect cultural, political,
  personal, ideological, or corporate issues
• Unconscious product of culture or personal
  history
• Faulty core assumptions result of poor study.
  They are similar to unconscious biases

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Technology Forecasting

• Designates forecasting activities that focus on
  changes in functional capacity and/or on the
  timing and significance of a technological
  innovation
• Attributes of technology most often forecast
• Growth in functional capability
• Rate of replacement of an old technology by a
  newer one
• Market penetration
• Diffusion
• Likelihood and timing of technological
  breakthroughs

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Models of Technology Growth and Diffusion

• Bright and Martino model seven stages of
  technology growth
• Scientific finding determination of opportunity
  or need
• Demonstration of laboratory feasibility
• Operating full-scale prototype or field trial
• Commercial introduction or operational use
• Widespread adoption
• Proliferation and diffusion to other uses
• Effect on social behavior and/or significant
  involvement in the economy

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Fisher-Pry Model

• Also referred to as substitution model
• Forecasts the rate at which one technology will
  replace another
• Growth in capacity of many technologies exhibits
  an S-shaped pattern

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Fisher-Pry Model.
Fisher-Pry Growth Model
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Gompertz Model

• Often referred to as mortality model
• equipment is replaced because it is worn out
  rather that because it is technologically,
  obsolete
• Growth in capacity of technologies exhibits a
  different S-shaped pattern from Fisher-Pry growth
  curve

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Cont.
FP
G
Gompertz Growth Model
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Determinant Factors in Technology Forecasting

• Dependence on basic scientific breakthroughs
• Physical limits to the rate of development
• Maturity of the science and applications of the
  technology
• Sensititivity of the pace of innovation to
  high-level policy decisions
• Relevance of RD funding
• Extent of substitutability by other products or
  by parallel innovations
• Relevance of diffusion
• Opportunities to borrow advances from related
  technologies

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Technology Forecasting Methods

• Direct direct forecasts of parameters that
  measure an aspect of the technology. Example
  expert opinion, trend extrapolation
• Correlative correlative parameters that measure
  the technology with parameters of other
  technologies. Example scenarios, cross impact
• Structural explicit consideration of
  cause-an-effect relationships that effect growth.
  Example causal models, relevance trees,
  simulation models

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Definition of Technology

• Technology refers to the theoretical and
  practical knowledge, skills, and artifacts that
  can be used to develop products and services as
  well as their production and delivery systems
• Technology by this definition is not a product or
  service, but is part of the underlying process
  used to produce products and services.

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Technology forecasting

• Academics and practitioners alike are aware of
  the increasing interactive and critical
  importance of technology in the corporate
  strategic process.
• J. Friar, and M. Horwitch, The Emergence of
  Technology Strategy - A New Deminsion of
  Strategic Management,
• Technology roadmapping represents a powerful
  process for supporting firm based strategic and
  tactical management.

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Long Wave Business Cycles

• Nikolai Kondratieff
• Joseph Schumpeter

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Kondratieff Wave
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(No Transcript)
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Technology Adoption Processes

• Technology-driven adoption
• more economical or technologically superior to
  existing.
• Diffusion
• penetrates the market of leaders and followers
  according to their acceptance of change.
• Mortality
• adopted when old technology wears out or breaks.

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Diffusion Process

• Concentrates on characteristics of the adopters/
  communication among them.

13.5
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2.5
16
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_ x-2?
_ x-?
_ x?
_ x
Late Majority
Early Adopters
Early Majority
Laggards
Innovators
Source Everett Rogers
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Figure 5. Infrastructure Model for Disruptive
technologies
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Figure 6. Placement of Generic MEMS technology
on Infrastructure Model for Disruptive
technologies
Non-IC like MEMS manufacturing
IC like MEMS manufacturing
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Figure 7 MEMS Innovation Process
Traditional MEMS Pressure Sensors Grand
Challenge Markets (BioMems, Optical Switching)
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Def of Technology

• Technology refers to the theoretical and
  practical knowledge, skills, and artifacts that
  can be used to develop products and services as
  well as their production and delivery systems
• Technology by this definition is not a product or
  service, but is part of the underlying process
  used to produce products and services.

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Technology forecasting

• Academics and practitioners alike are aware of
  the increasing interactive and critical
  importance of technology in the corporate
  strategic process.
• J. Friar, and M. Horwitch, The Emergence of
  Technology Strategy - A New Deminsion of
  Strategic Management,

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Popular Approaches to Forecasting Qualitative
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Popular Approaches to Forecasting Quantitative
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Trend Analysis of Health Care in US
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(No Transcript)
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Week 3Technological Description

• Technological Description is a process that
  enables a small firm to briefly and articulately
  describe the value inherent in their technology
  to potential users.
• Executives in many businesses find it difficult
  to express the value inherent in their technology
  to potential clients, investors or other
  stakeholders.
• The process of technological description involves
  making this complicated process commonplace.
  Utilizing a series of questions and sentence
  structures we provide the client with exception
  explanatory power.
• Material on web

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Week 3

• Rest on week 2 material

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• TRL 1
• Experimental data revealing useful information
• about the basic principles observed.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• Basic principles observed and reported.
• This is the lowest level of technology
  maturation at which
• conceptualization and scientific research
  transitions to applied research
• and development and a new technology advance
  begins the journey to
• technological maturity. At this level, typically
  no hardware may exist, or if
• it does it is for a different purpose that by
  serendipity suggests a radical
• new technology that may have use or importance
  (e.g., the discovery of
• safety glass).

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• TRL 2
• Mathematical or conceptual model that explains or
  provides a better
• understanding of the underlying science and how
  it could be applied to
• solve a particular applications problem.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• Technology concept and/or application formulated.
• Once basic physical principles are observed, then
  at the next
• level of maturation, practical applications of
  those
• characteristics may be identified. TRL 2 is
  characterized by
• identified applications in which the technology
  advancement
• can be shown analytically to offer significant,
  quantifiable
• benefit as compared to the existing state of the
  art. It is this
• elucidation of potential benefit that spurs the
  investment
• necessary to carry the technology advancement to
  higher
• TRLs

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• TRL 3
• Experimental or analytical setup that shows that
  the key elements of an approach are likely
• to be feasible or, at least, there are no obvious
  barriers to success based on first principles.
• Feasibility is demonstrated either experimentally
  or analytically (computer simulation)
• whichever is most convincing to potential
  customers.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• Analytical and experimental critical function
  and/or characteristic
• proof-of-concept achieved in a laboratory
  environment.
• At this step in the maturation process, active
  research and development
• (RD) is initiated. This includes both analytical
  studies to set the
• technology into an appropriate context and
  laboratory-based studies to
• validate empirically that the analytical
  predictions are correct.
• These studies and experiments validate the
  benefits offered by the
• technology advancement to the applications/concept
  s formulated at TRL2.
• To be at TRL 3, the following conditions should
  exist
• 1. Laboratory tests have demonstrated that the
  technology advance is as predicted by the
  analytical model and has the potential to evolve
  to a practical device and
• 2. A determination of the relevant environment
  (see notes below) for the technology advance has
  been made.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• TRL 4
• Experimental setup designed to solve a particular
  customer
• problem that shows that an approach is likely to
  be feasible.
• The demonstration does not have the look or feel
  of a product
• but is more of a breadboard of the product.
  For example, it
• has all the functionality of the envisioned
  product but is
• spread out on a lab bench and operates in a lab
  environment.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• Component and/or breadboard validated in a
  laboratory environment.
• Following successful proof-of-concept work,
  basic technological elements must be
• integrated to establish that the pieces will
  work together to achieve concept-enabling
• levels of performance for a component and/or
  breadboard. This validation must be devised
• to support the concept that was formulated
  earlier and should also be consistent with the
• requirements of potential system applications.
  The validation is relatively low-fidelity
• compared to the eventual system and may be
  composed of ad hoc discrete components in a
• laboratory.
• To be at TRL 4, the technology advance will
  satisfy several conditions
• 1. A component or breadboard version of the
  technology advance will have been
• implemented and tested in a laboratory
  environment (see notes below)
• 2. Analytical models of the technology advance
  fully replicate the TRL 4 test data and
• 3. Analytical models of the performance of the
  component or breadboard configuration
• of the technology advance predict its performance
  when operated in its relevant
• environment and the environments to which the
  technology advance would be exposed
• during qualification testing for an operational
  mission.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• TRL 5
• Research Prototype - Has the look and feel of
• a hardware/software product but is hand built or
• custom built and has addressed enough of the
  users
• relevant environments that it may be demonstrated
  to
• a customer but not suitable to give to a customer
  due
• to unpredictable failure or breakage.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• Component and/or breadboard validated in a
  relevant environment.
• At this TRL, the fidelity of the environment in
  which the component and/or breadboard has been
  tested has increased
• significantly. The basic technological elements
  must be integrated with reasonably realistic
  supporting elements so that the
• total applications (component-level, sub-system
  level, or system-level) can be tested in a
  relevant environment. The
• difference between TRL 4 and TRL 5 is found in
  the level of stress applied to the advanced
  technology during test. To be
• tested successfully in a relevant environment
  (see notes below), the quality of the component
  or breadboard may have to
• be improved from that tested at the TRL 4.
• To be at TRL 5, the technology advance will
  satisfy several conditions
• 1. The relevant environment is fully defined
• 2. The technology advance has been tested in its
  relevant environment throughout a
• range of operating points that represents the
  full range of operating points similar to those
  to which the technology advance
• would be exposed during qualification testing for
  an operational mission
• 3. Analytical models of the technology advance
  replicate the performance of the technology
  advance operating in the
• relevant environment and
• 4. Analytical predictions of the performance of
  the technology advance in a prototype or
  flight-like configuration have been
• made. For some technology advances, testing in
  space is the only means by which the technology
  advance can experience
• its relevant environment. For example, consider
  deployment or control of a solar sail. In these
  cases, TRL 5 can only be
• accomplished analytically. A model that describes
  the technology advances relevant physics,
  chemistry, and engineering

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• TRL 6
• Engineering Prototype - Hardware/software product
  
• that has been made rugged and repeatable within
• most of the relevant environments of the
  application
• (temperature, shock, vibration, radiation,
  humidity,
• etc.) and is suitable to give to a customer for
• evaluation in the customers environment
• understanding that some failures can be expected.
  

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration
  in a relevant environment on the ground or in
  space.
• A major step in the level of fidelity of the
  technology demonstration follows the completion
  of TRL 5. At TRL 6, a
• representative model or prototype of the
  subsystem or system, well beyond ad hoc,
  patch-cord or discrete-component-
• level breadboarding, would be tested in a
  relevant environment. However, commercial parts
  are still appropriate where
• not contraindicated by the environment in which
  they will be tested. At this level, if the only
  relevant environment is
• space, then to achieve TRL 6 the model/prototype
  must be successfully validated in space. However,
  in many (if not most)
• cases, TRL 6 can be demonstrated using tests on
  Earth tests that potentially offer a broader
  range of operating conditions
• than those conducted in space.
• To be at TRL 6, the technology advance will
  satisfy several conditions
• 1. The technology advance is incorporated in an
  operational model or prototype similar to the
  packaging and design needed
• for use on an operational spacecraft
• 2. The system/subsystem model or prototype has
  been tested in its relevant environment
  throughout a range of operating
• points that represents the full range of
  operating points similar to those to which the
  technology advance would be exposed
• during qualification testing for an operational
  mission
• 3. Analytical models of the function and
  performance of the system/subsystem model or
  prototype, throughout its operating
• region, in its most stressful environment, have
  been validated empirically and
• 4. The focus of testing and modeling has shifted
  from understanding the function and performance
  of the technology

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• TRL 7
• Flight / Field Prototype - Hardware/software
  product that has been made reliable and
• manufacturable within all of the relevant
  environments of the application and is suitable
  to
• give to a customer for field or flight test
  evaluations understanding that failures, other
  than
• minor, are not expected.
• System prototype demonstrated in a space
  environment.
• TRL 7 can be a significant step beyond TRL 6,
  requiring both an actual system prototype
• and its demonstration in a space environment.
  Because of cost, it is a step that is not always
• implemented. In the case of TRL 7, the prototype
  should be at the same scale as the planned
• operational system and its operation must take
  place in space. The driving purposes for
• achieving this level of maturity are to assure
  that system engineering is adequate, that trans-
• interface interactions are adequately modeled and
  understood, and that in-space operation at
• the appropriate scale is both as expected and as
  predicted. Therefore, the demonstration must
• be of a prototype of that application. While not
  all technologies in all systems will require an
• in-space test, the actual demonstration of a
  system prototype in a space environment would
• normally be performed in cases where the
  technology and/or subsystem application is both
  mission
• critical and high risk.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• System prototype demonstrated in a space
  environment.
• TRL 7 can be a significant step beyond TRL 6,
  requiring both an actual system prototype
• and its demonstration in a space environment.
  Because of cost, it is a step that is not always
• implemented. In the case of TRL 7, the prototype
  should be at the same scale as the planned
• operational system and its operation must take
  place in space. The driving purposes for
• achieving this level of maturity are to assure
  that system engineering is adequate, that trans-
• interface interactions are adequately modeled and
  understood, and that in-space operation at
• the appropriate scale is both as expected and as
  predicted. Therefore, the demonstration must
• be of a prototype of that application. While not
  all technologies in all systems will require an
• in-space test, the actual demonstration of a
  system prototype in a space environment would
• normally be performed in cases where the
  technology and/or subsystem application is both
  mission critical and high risk.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• TRL 8
• Qualified Production Prototype -
  Hardware/software product
• that has completed formal qualification processes
  and final
• manufacturing cost wring out (if applicable)
  and is suitable
• for use by the customer in the operational
  environment as a
• qualified product.
• Actual system completed and flight qualified
  through test
• and demonstrated on the ground or in space.
• By definition, all technologies being used on
  operational
• spacecraft achieve TRL 8. For most technology
  advances,
• TRL 8 represents the end of true system
  development.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• Actual system completed and flight qualified
  through test and demonstrated on the ground or in
  space.
• By definition, all technologies being used on
  operational spacecraft achieve TRL 8. For most
  technology advances, TRL 8 represents the end of
  true system development.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• TRL 9
• Experimental data revealing useful information
  about the basic principles
• observed.
• Actual system flight proven through successful
  mission operations.
• By definition, all technologies being applied on
  operational spacecraft
• achieve TRL 9,including integrating the new
  technology advance into an
• existing system and achieving successful
  operation during a science
• mission. This TRL does not include product
  improvement of ongoing or
• reusable systems or the evolutionary improvement
  of technology advances
• already at TRL 9.

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SNLs Deliverable Readiness Level Descriptions

• Actual system flight proven through successful
  mission operations.
• By definition, all technologies being applied on
  operational spacecraft
• achieve TRL 9,including integrating the new
  technology advance into an
• existing system and achieving successful
  operation during a science
• mission. This TRL does not include product
  improvement of ongoing or
• reusable systems or the evolutionary improvement
  of technology advances
• already at TRL 9.