Public Opinion and Voting Behavior of Groups II

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Public Opinion and Voting Behavior of Groups II

• GOVT311 Lecture 16

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More on Race Latinos

• Until recently, Latinos made up too small of a
  population to generate reliable estimates of
  their voting behavior and public opinion.
• Solution National Latino Political Survey a
  survey of just Latinos.

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Latinos are not one group, Politically

• Cubans tend to be more conservative/Republican
  than Anglos
• Mexican-Americans tend to be slightly more
  liberal/Democratic than Anglos
• Puerto Ricans tend to be most Democratic of
  Latinos, but are also most ideologically polarized

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Latinos and Public Opinion

• Domestic Spending tend to be poorer than overall
  population, tend to support greater spending
• Social Issues tend to be a more conservative on
  issues where their culture is in contrast to
  American culture, like gay rights.

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Latinos and pocketbook issues

• Bilingual education 80-90 support bilingual
  education. Less than half of non-Hispanics
  support bilingual education.
• Immigration Actually take a harder stance
  against immigration than non-Hispanics. This was
  a surprising finding that was initially disputed
  by Latino political leaders.
• Affirmative Action Generally support affirmative
  action, but conditional on question wording.
  PRgtMgtC.
• Discrimination Small numbers report personal
  experience with discrimination, but believe it is
  overall directed towards their race.

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Differences Among Religions

• Protestants
• Focus on Protestant Ethic of individual
  responsibility
• Catholics
• Until recently, notably poorer
• Suffered discrimination as tend to be recent
  immigrants
• More conservative on abortion, but more liberal
  on death penalty
• Democrats have been more supportive of Catholic
  presidential candidates
• Jews
• Tend to be wealthier
• As a persecuted minority, tend to be more liberal
  on social issues
• None
• More liberal on social issues

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Religion and Public Opinion

• Domestic Spending Catholics and Jews tend to be
  slightly more liberal than Protestants
• Domestic Policy Protestants (slightly) tend to
  be most conservative
• Foreign Policy Protestants tend to be a little
  more isolationist, but at the same time are a
  little more pro-military

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The Protestant Divide

• Within Protestant Denominations, Fundamentalists
  (Baptists) tend to hold more conservative views
  that Secularists (Presbyterians and
  Episcopalians).
• Fundamentalists tend to be Southern, rural, poor,
  and less educated
• Secularists tend to be younger.
• Most striking is abortion 59 of Secularists
  support abortion in any case, 11 of
  fundamentalists (ET p.2004). Fundamentalists are
  more hawkish on foreign policy, and strongly
  support Israel.

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Religion and Political Behavior

• Vote for Kennedy
• Protestant 28
• Catholic 83
• Jewish 83
• Vote for Kerry
• Protestant 45
• Catholic 48
• Jewish 75
• Vote for Obama
• Protestant 45
• Catholic 54
• Jewish 78

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Religion in Black Churches

• Note the Erikson and Tedin purposely restricted
  their analysis to white protestant churches
  black protestant churches are a whole other
  creature.
• Prior to the Civil Rights movement, churches (not
  the government) were the social glue in black
  communities.
• During the Civil Rights movement, black churches
  were the organizing focal point. MLK and others
  were ministers.
• The political leadership of black communities
  continues to come from churches today Jackson,
  Sharpton, Wright.
• Political black churches are believed to form
  social capital (Putnam) and blacks vote at
  higher rates than their SES would otherwise
  indicate. All churches are not political.
• The wrinkle blacks are overwhelmingly
  Democratic, but their churches tend to preach
  conservative fundamentialism

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Black Churches and Political Behavior

• Results of a detailed analysis of the 1996
  National Black Election Survey shows that
  attending a politically active church increases
  warm feelings towards Democrats, but at the same
  time, frequently attending a church decreases
  those feelings by about the same amount.
• In terms of political figures
• No effect for Clinton (no variation?)
• Same pattern for feelings towards Dole (though
  attending a non-political church does make one
  warmer towards Dole).
• Politically active church attendance increases
  warm feelings towards Jackson
• Frequent attendance decreases feelings towards
  Farrakhan

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Black Churches and Public Opinion

• Surprisingly little effect, other than the usual
  increase of church attendance tends to make one
  more conservative.

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Region

• Conventional Wisdom
• South more conservative and Democratic
• Northeast more liberal
• West more liberal
• Midwest more conservative and isolationist
• Over time, the South is becoming more like the
  rest of the country, as attitudes towards
  Republicans change and as liberal non-southerners
  move into Southern metropolitan areas and retire
  in Florida (its all about air-conditioning).

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Within-region divide

• The urban-suburban-rural divide in American
  politics continues.

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Gender

• Prior to 1980, there was little research into
  political behavior and public opinion gender
  differences.
• In 1980, Women split their vote between Carter
  and Reagan, while men favored Reagan by 19
  percentage points. (This was also the year the
  Republicans removed support for the ERA from
  their party platform).
• Since 1980, there has been a distinct gender
  gap in American voting (but not in other
  countries such as England).

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Explaining the Gender Gap

• A matter of biology some issues have different
  effects on men and women because of who they are
  (ERA, military combat, men-only clubs)
• Roles and norms some issues relate to men and
  womens roles in society in different ways
  (sexual violence, child care, parental leave).
• Different life situations issues without overt
  gender differences may be viewed differently
  (social services, health insurance)

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Re-Framing the Gender Gap

• Sapiro argues that the gender gap is over-stated,
  since on many issues, majorities of both men and
  women hold the same opinion, they just do so to
  differing degrees.

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Gender and Public Opinion

• Women tend to be more liberal on issues of force,
  violence, and aggression. The explanation that
  is often given is that women develop different
  norms regarding violence.
• Interestingly, Sapiro does not address two issues
  that have stark gender differences in Erikson and
  Tedin gun control and the death penalty.
• Women tend to be more liberal on domestic
  spending and welfare, which relates to womens
  life-situation, generally being poorer than
  males.
• Women tend to be more liberal on issues of gay
  rights. Men tend to value adherence to gender
  roles more than women.
• On gender related issues, there is little
  difference on issues such as abortion, women in
  military, and ERA suggesting that gender
  differences are not merely a matter of biology.