NOAANWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution NFUSE Steering Team

1
NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution
(NFUSE) Steering Team
Briefing to Operations Committee

• Paul Hirschberg
• April 18, 2007

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Outline

• Purpose
• Issue
• Background
• Discussion
• Alternatives
• Recommendation

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Purpose

• Decision
• Sanction formation of NOAA/NWS Forecast
  Uncertainty Service Evolution (NFUSE) Steering
  Team

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Issue

• How to corporately address need/opportunity to
  improve generation and communication of forecast
  uncertainty products and services
• How to address and respond to 2006 NRC Report,
• Completing the Forecast. Characterizing and
  Communicating Uncertainty for Better
  Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts

5
BackgroundWhy the Focus on Forecast Uncertainty?

• Most NWS (and other provider) products and
  services are based on single-value
  deterministic forecasts
• However, all hydrometeorological forecasts are
  inherently uncertain
• NRC Report
• States availability and use of forecast
  uncertainty information is potentially of great
  value to society will improve decision making
• Calls on NWS to take leadership role in
  transitioning to widespread, effective
  incorporation of uncertainty information into
  hydrometeorological prediction
• Service Evolution Concept
• Forecast uncertainty needed to support future
  Hazard/High Impact Services
• NOAA Strategic Plan
• Better, quicker, and more valuable weather and
  water information to support improved decisions

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BackgroundCurrent State

• Research advances and increases in computational
  power are enabling ensemble-modeling and other
  techniques to better quantify forecast
  uncertainty
• Increasing numbers of planning, development, and
  prototyping efforts within NWS (in addition to
  NOAA and the hydrometeorological community at
  large) looking at forecast uncertainty
• However, there is no comprehensive corporate NWS
  approach and plan to identify and validate user
  needs and to develop and implement responsive
  products and services based on sound science and
  end-to-end solutions

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BackgroundReason for NFUSE Steering Team

• In Jan 07, informal group began looking at
  forecast uncertainty from corporate perspective
• Purpose not to hinder or duplicate ongoing
  efforts, but rather to corporately plan for
  success by ensuring necessary components of an
  end-to-end forecast uncertainty information
  system are accounted for
• Group has met several times and requests
  sanctioning as NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncertainty
  Service Evolution (NFUSE) Steering Team

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DiscussionProposed NFUSE Terms of Reference

• Vision
• NWS provides forecast uncertainty products,
  services, and information meeting customer,
  partner, and forecaster needs
• Mission
• Advise and coordinate NWS activities related to
  development, implementation, and evolution of
  forecast uncertainty products, services and
  information

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Discussion Proposed NFUSE Terms of Reference

• Roles Responsibilities
• Ensure corporate communication and coordination
  of forecast uncertainty activities
• Ensure communication pertaining to forecast
  uncertainty within NOAA and external community
  including user groups, private sector, and
  external RD activities such as THORPEX
• Develop and sustain a corporate NOAA/NWS Plan for
  generating and communicating forecast uncertainty
  information
• Use OSIP as appropriate
• Recommend PPBES information to NOAA Program
  Managers and Goals
• Brief NWS Corporate Board on uncertainty forecast
  matters, e.g., response to NRC Report

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DiscussionProposed NFUSE Terms of Reference

• Scope of Authority and Limitations
• Report to Operations Committee of NWS Corporate
  Board
• Coordinate activities with NCEP, Regions, and HQ
  Offices, OAR Labs, other LOs, Programs and Goals
  and related NWS initiatives such as Service
  Evolution
• Create work teams and other subordinate groups as
  needed
• TOR reviewed annually by Operations Committee

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DiscussionProposed NFUSE Terms of Reference

• Membership
• One principal (voting member) from
• PR (Ken Waters)
• AR (James Partain)
• WR (Andy Edman)
• SR (Bernard Meisner)
• CR (Pete Browning)
• ER (Ken Johnson)
• Other stakeholders, subject matter experts,
  observers as appropriate
• Chair Nominated by Principals and selected by
  Ops. Committee

• NCEP (Zoltan Toth)
• OST (Paul Hirschberg)
• OCWWS (LeRoy Spayd)
• Service Evolution (Suzanne Lenihan)
• OSPP (John Sokich)
• OHD (Frank Richards)
• OAR (Tom Hamill)

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DiscussionProposed NFUSE Terms of Reference

• CY 07 Activities
• Develop NOAA/NWS plan for generating and
  communicating forecast uncertainty products,
  services, and information
• Work with Programs and Goals to submit forecasts
  uncertainty capability improvements to FY10-14
  PPBES
• Submit and champion requirements and related
  implementing projects into OSIP

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Discussion NFUSE Strategy for Developing Plan

• Identify ongoing activities
• Consider NRC Report Recommendations -- Bob Ryan
  met with Group
• Consider NCEP Ensemble Workshop Recommendations,
  THORPEX
• Incorporate user, forecaster, and partner needs
• Leverage knowledge (HSD/OHD, OAR, other Agencies,
  Academia, etc.)
• Work with Weather Enterprise early on --
  Meeting with Ray Ban
• Plan for short-term (0-3 yr) quick winners
  (low-hanging fruit) as well as longer-term gt 3
  yrs.

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DiscussionImportant NFUSE Milestones

• Operations Committee Briefing Apr. 2007
• FY 10-14 PPBES Planning Input May 2007
• 1st Draft Forecast Uncertainty Plan Sept. 2007
• FY 10-14 PPBES Programming Input Oct. 2007
• Final Forecast Uncertainty Plan Mar. 2008
• Use plan FY 11-15 PPBES Apr. 2008
• OSIP and other Projects Ongoing

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Alternatives and Recommendation

• Alternatives
• 1) Sanction NFUSE Steering Team and approve TOR
  as is
• Direct revision of team composition and/or TOR,
  and consider later
• Focus planning and other forecast uncertainty
  coordination activities directly through Service
  Evolution Lead
• 4) Status Quo Do not form team or otherwise
  focus on forecast uncertainty allow it to
  mature through ongoing activities
• Recommendation
• Option 1
• Decision