Efficient System Designs and Sustainable Finance for Chinas Village Electrification Program

1
Efficient System Designs and Sustainable Finance
for Chinas Village Electrification Program

• David M. Kline
• NREL Technology Applications Center
• Ma Shenghong, Yin Huanying
• Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese
  Academy of Sciences

Strategic Energy Analysis Center Seminar 12
October 2006
2
Outline of Presentation

• Introduction
• Methodology
• Model Results
• Use of this Analysis in the Village
  Electrification Program
• Questions (fair game any time) and discussion

3
Introduction
4
Chinas Village Electrification Program

• Goal Provide electricity to all citizens
  currently without access
• Phase I Township Electrification Program,
  largely completed
• Phase II Village Electrification Program
• Currently ongoing
• 30 million citizens, mostly in Western China
• Off-grid, renewable, mostly home systems
• Incorporate lessons from Township Program

5
Goals of NREL/IEE Collaboration

• Develop guidance on system design
• Provide cost estimates for setting tariffs
• Incorporate analysis results in practical tool
  for use by provincial utilities and system
  integrators
• Mandate as a standard method, as part of
  implementing regulations of Chinas Renewable
  Energy Law

6
Methodology
7
Overview of Tool
Generate table of results off-line
8
Elements of the User Interface

• Inputs
• Solar resource, kWh m-2 d-1annual average
• Wind resource, m s-1 or monthly average
• Village size
• Outputs
• Tariff components to finance system
• Least-cost system design
• Based on results of off-line optimization
  analysis

9
User Interface
10
Simulation - Optimization - Sensitivity Analysis

• Simulation
• Time varying loads and resources require an
  hour-by-hour analysis for entire year
• Optimization
• Find the least cost solution
• Sensitivity Analysis
• The data is never good enough.

11
Basic Load Profile for Single Home System
Load, kWh
Hour of the day
Basic load allotment for a household is
approximately 200 kWh per year
12
Single Home Load Curve over Three Days
13
Solar Resource in Western China
December 2.5 kWh m-2 day-1 July 6.5 kWh m-2
day-1
14
Wind ResourceWind Speed Probability Density
Function
15
PV and Converter Costs and Performance

• PV
• 4,400 / kW system price
• 25 year lifetime
• Inverter/Rectifier
• 1,700 / kW
• 20 year lifetime
• Inverter efficiency 90
• Rectifier efficiency 85

16
Wind Turbine Characterization
Chinese wind turbine tested by National Wind
Technology Center
17
Battery Characterization
Cost 40 per battery Capacity 0.48 kWh
18
Illustrative Results
19
Solar Home System Design
Capital Cost 1,870 Present value of total cost
2,561 Cost of energy 1.04/kWh Running cost
0.28/kWh
20
Solar Home System Design as a Functionof
Renewable Resource Regime
21
Single Home System Energy Mix as a Function of
Renewable Resource Regime
22
Solar Home System Cost and Tariff Under the
proposed Scheme
23
Cost of Energy from Mini-gridDepends on Village
Size

• Mini-grid will not be used for less than 50
  households

24
Use of this Analysis

• Method under consideration as mandatory design
  and finance standard for Village Electrification
  Program
• Methods and data undergoing further refinement by
  IEE and NREL
• Could serve as example for other rural
  electrification programs
• Analytic methods
• Chinas commitment to renewable energy

25
Acknowledgements

• Partners
• Yin Huanying, Ma Shenghong, Institute of
  Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of
  Sciences
• Sponsors
• USDOE Office of Weatherization and
  Intergovernmental Affairs
• UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Mr. Ma at IEE/NDRC/NREL workshop
26
For more information

• David Kline David_kline_at_nrel.gov
• [phone]
• HOMER http//www.nrel.gov/homer
• ASES paper on this work
• http//www.nrel.gov/docs/fy06osti/39588.pdf or
• http//tinyurl.com/e4uye

27
Thanks!
28
Supplementary Information
29
Disclaimer and Government License This work
has been authored by Midwest Research Institute
(MRI) under Contract No. DE-AC36-99GO10337 with
the U.S. Department of Energy (the DOE). The
United States Government (the Government)
retains and the publisher, by accepting the work
for publication, acknowledges that the Government
retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable,
worldwide license to publish or reproduce the
published form of this work, or allow others to
do so, for Government purposes.  Neither MRI,
the DOE, the Government, nor any other agency
thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any
warranty, express or implied, or assumes any
liability or responsibility for the accuracy,
completeness, or usefulness of any information,
apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or
represents that its use would not infringe any
privately owned rights. Reference herein to any
specific commercial product, process, or service
by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or
otherwise does not constitute or imply its
endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the
Government or any agency thereof. The views and
opinions of the authors and/or presenters
expressed herein do not necessarily state or
reflect those of MRI, the DOE, the Government, or
any agency thereof.