Mediamorphosis the shape of things to come

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Mediamorphosis the shape of things to come

• Nils Enlund
• Professor, Media Technology and Graphic Arts
• Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm,
  Sweden
• ltnilse_at_kth.segt

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Mediamorphosis the book

• Roger Fidler 1997
• The transformation of communication media,
  usually brought about by the complex interplay of
  perceived needs, competitive and political
  pressures, and social and technological
  innovations

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I am not a medium!

• medium, pl. media (lat. in the middle, a
  go-between)
• Between producer and consumer of information
• Between the physical and the spiritual world
• Predicting the future, knowing the unknown

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Pointing my trembling finger

• I will just try to point out a number of trends
  and facts that, in my opinion, will
  signific-antly contribute to the future
  development of media
• No strict logical order
• No consistent view of the future

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Expanding media spectrum

• Technology development is currently focused on
  media consumption devices
• New multifunctional devices introduced every year
• Traditional media do not disappear!
• Time and money spent on media consumtion has
  remained stable over the years
• Increased competition, niched media, fragmented
  and smaller audiences for advertisement
• Smaller margins, shaky economy

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Convergence

• Industry convergence
• The rise of a global media industry
• Production convergence
• Media content produced for multichannel
  distribution
• Content convergence
• The distinctions between traditionally different
  media forms and genres fade
• Distribution convergence
• Different media forms can be distributed over the
  same digital carrier
• Consumption device convergence
• Tv on the phone, web on the tv, phone on the
  computer

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Fragmentation

• Composite media forms are becoming fragmented
• The tv and radio channel concept is dissolving
• We consume individual programs, shows, and
  formats distributed in a variety of channels
• IP-TV, VOD, TIVO, mobile TV/video,
• Newspapers are losing parts of their content to
  other distribution channels
• Real news has disappeared from print long ago
• Ads are going to the web
• New focus on media objects and content types

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Genre transformations

• A genre is a distinctive type of recurring
  commun-icative action, characterized by common
  aspects of content, form, and functionality and
  by a commun-icative purpose recognized within a
  community
• Content types are being recombined into new media
  genres
• hypermediacy
• Totally new genres emerging
• Wiki, blogs, moblogs,
• New genres formed around and by new communities

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Value chain implosion

• The division of roles between media producers and
  consumers is dissolving
• Interaction
• Personalization
• Consumers become producers
• Collaborative creation (Wiki,)
• Everyone his/her own (news, movie, web, )
  producer
• Downloading, piracy, digital manipulation
• Immaterial property rights lose their value?

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User-centric development

• Media design for a wide variety of users / uses
• Individual preferences
• Fashion, attitudes
• Mobility
• Accessibility
• Scalability
• Usability

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Immersion

• Some media forms, especially entertainment and
  games, are means of transportation
• When consuming the media, we wish to feel
  transported into another world, a virtual reality
• Technology strives to become transparent
• Technical immersion in virtual realities
• Multisensory content (hypermediation)
• New modes of narration and interaction

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Physicality vs. virtuality

• Humans have a need for physicality
• Of all our senses, touch is the one that we trust
  the most
• Media and mediated experiences cannot be puerly
  virtual
• We need media artifacts!
• Collectibles
• Status and show-off
• Trust building

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The slow future

• Evolution instead of revolution
• The media landscape changes slowly

The chasm
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The hype curve
Visibility
The peak of inflated expectations
The plateau of productivity
The trough of disillusion- ment
The slope of enlightenment
The valley of merciful oblivion
Technology introduction
Time
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In summary

• An increasingly complex media landscape
• New genres will emerge
• The old will not disappear
• Business models will be revolutionized
• Global media giants vs. niche entrepreneurs
• Consumers become (co)producers
• The user is queen/king!
• Media everywhere!

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Thank you!