New York University Center for Global Affairs

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• New York University Center for Global Affairs
• Farah Y. Arabe, Minhye Park, and
• Tara T. Trombetta

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Global Peace Index
Methodology Indicators
Weakness
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Methodology

• General Characteristics
• 1) 121 countries
• 2) 24 indicators (15 quantitative and 6
  qualitative)
• 3) Normalization of Data
• 4) Two sub-indices
• Internal Peace (60)
• External Peace (40)
• 5) General Sources of Error
• 121 countries with data
• Gaps filled by EIU
• Qualitative analysis

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The Highlight of Indicators
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Analysis of the Result

• Most Western European countries are much more
• peaceful than countries in Middle East.

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The Most and Least at Peace

• Iraq
• (Score3.437)
• Ongoing war since 2005
• Terrorism
• High levels of political
• instability
• 801,000 Iraqi refugees in Jordan and Syria
• Small arms and light weapons are highly
  accessible

• Norway
• (Score1.357)
• No internal conflict
• Involvement in external conflicts is limited to
  peacekeeping roles
• A strong level of respect for human rights
• The political scene is stable
• Access to small arms and light weapons is highly
  restricted

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Findings

• What are the potential factors that influence
  peace of countries?
• Significant correlation with internal peace
• The political democracy
• Education
• Regional integration
• Significant correlation with external peace
• Military capability
• Military expenditure as percent of GDP
• Number of deaths from organized conflicts
• Significant correlation with overall peace
• The importance of religion in national life
• Hospitality to foreigner

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Global Peace Index

• Missing Indicators
• Qualities of Peacefulness Indicators
• Coverage
• Other Considerations

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Missing Indicators

• Some important reflectors of peacefulness were
  not included in the report.
• Womens Childrens Rights The Christian
  Science Monitor was the first to criticize the
  GPI for not including these measures that are
  repeatedly at the forefront of humanitarian
  debates.
• Racism How should a countrys treatment of its
  own citizens in terms of skin color measure a
  countrys relative peacefulness, particularly in
  cases where it has led to ethnic conflict?
• Freedom of Speech If a citizen is not allowed to
  express him or herself, how likely is it that
  such oppression may lead to a less peaceful
  society?
• Poverty Inequity How do the divides between a
  countrys rich and poor fuel violence?
• Environmental Peace Can the levels of
  responsibility towards securing a better
  environment be factored into a countrys level of
  peacefulness?

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Qualities of Peacefulness Indicators

• Amongst the many important elements examined
  within the GPI, some can be perceived in a
  positive rather than negative fashion. Negative
  peace, or the simple absence of violence, may
  not be enough to truly examine a countrys
  peacefulness.
• Percentage of Imprisoned Population Who is in
  jail? Are the inmates white-collar
  offenders or rapists and murderers? Have the
  prisoners been sent to jail for actual crimes or
  were they falsely accused? Does having these
  individuals in prison actually make the streets
  safer?
• Police on the Streets Does the police force
  engage in political terror and practice
  corruption or do they work towards making streets
  safer and attend to sensitive issues such as
  domestic violence?
• Human Rights The report only measures levels of
  political terror in a country, but human rights
  encompasses so much more, namely the rights of
  women, children and minorities.

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Qualities of Peacefulness Indicators

• Number of Wars Fought from 2000-2005 Were the
  wars in question fought in defense or out of
  aggression? What about wars fought prior to 2005?
  Not all countries which experience peace today
  have always been so peaceful and vice versa.
• UN Deployments Does the use of force help to
  bring about peace or perpetuate conflict?
• Militarization The US is not rated as being very
  peaceful because of its high military
  expenditure, however, the report does not take
  into account its budget allowance for protecting
  smaller countries in need of defense. Has
  increased militarization been a result of a
  country being at war or is this a countrys
  normal level of militarization? How threatening
  is a countrys military might on an international
  scale?

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Coverage

• There are a number of countries not measured in
  the GPI. Including them would undoubtedly make a
  difference in ones ranking. It would also rend a
  more accurate portrayal of the peacefulness of
  the world as a whole and add to the pressure on
  less peaceful countries listed below to reform.
• Countries excluded from the report
• Africa Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central
  African Republic, Chad, Liberia, Sierra Leone,
  Somalia, Niger, Rwanda, Burkina Faso, Mali,
  Mauritania
• Europe Montenegro, Albania, Armenia, Georgia
• Asia Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan,
  Mongolia, North Korea, Laos, Nepal
• Americas Haiti

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Other Considerations

• Small, isolated countries tend to be the most
  peaceful. Medium to large countries, landlocked
  nations, and those situated in historically
  tumultuous regions tend to do worse. Should the
  fact that country size and location affect its
  peacefulness play into the report? If so, how can
  a country be penalized or given a handicap for
  these features?
• Does the number of humanitarian organizations in
  country or working abroad to promote peace count
  as an added peaceful feature?
• Where does the death penalty fit into all this?
• Should other global reports count towards
  improving the relative peacefulness of a country,
  such as Freedom Houses Freedom Index, Foreign
  Policys Failed State Index or the UNs Human
  Development Indicators?

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Suggestions

• Improve Accuracy
• By adding more qualitative measures and further
  refining the drivers and indicators already
  applied, the report will be more reflective of a
  countrys actual peacefulness.
• Including more countries in the report would fill
  a wide gap that promulgates a feeling of
  inaccuracy.
• Build Legitimacy
• By improving the accuracy of the report, it is
  possible that it will gain more legitimacy
  because a country will be less capable of denying
  its low ranking.
• Putting the GPI to use amongst members of the
  international community would help give the study
  weight. Its possible that the report simply
  needs time to mature.
• Create Incentives
• Incentives to improve ones rank amongst fellow
  nation-states would make the report more viable
  and increase its legitimacy.
• Again, time will add another dimension to the
  report countries that improve rank from one year
  to the next, rather than fall lower, will
  increase incentives for themselves and others to
  become more peaceful.

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Thank You

• Minhye Park
• Tara T. Trombetta
• Farah Y. Arabe
• Contact informationmp1740_at_nyu.edu