4th AMGPAAPG International Conference

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4th AMGP/AAPG International Conference Veracruz,
Mexico Invited Address November 6,
2001 Fractures, Salt, Seismic and Ice
Exploiting New Technologies for Americas Natural
Gas Energy Future Scott W. Tinker Bureau of
Economic GeologyThe University of Texas at Austin
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Acknowledgments

• AMGP/AAPG
• BEG Scientists and Staff
• Dr. Eugene M. Kim

3
Session Themes

• Natural Gas Future
• Importance of Seismic
• Unconventional Sources
• Unconventional Approaches
• Thin beds
• Anomalous pressure
• Geochemistry
• Rocks

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Three Main Points
Energy consumption in the United States and the
world has followed a very predictable
decarbonization trend. North American energy
demand will be increasingly satisfied by natural
gas.
Deep water and unconventional sources of natural
gas will be major production components, and the
southwest United States and Mexico will play a
dominant role.
Research and technology such as fracture
characterization and modeling, advanced seismic
analysis, and salt modeling and prediction will
improve exploration and development success in
the Gulf of Mexico and for unconventional natural
gas.
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The Natural Gas Future
6
World Energy Consumption
QAc9841c
after Hefner, 1993
7
U.S. Energy Consumption
1970
8
U.S. Energy Consumption
1970
9
U.S. Energy Consumption
Liquids (Oil)

• Methane, Hydrogen
• (Nuclear, Renewables)
• Efficiency
• Economic Stability
• National Security
• Environmental Impact
• Methane Abundant
• Hydrogen Sustainable

l
Solids (Wood, Coal)
Gases (Natural Gas, Hydrogen, Nuclear, Renewables)
10
U.S. Energy Consumption 50-Year Forecast
EIA Historical Production Data
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U.S. Natural Gas Historical and Future Production
Demand
Tight Gas, Shale Gas, CBM
EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)
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Mexico Gas Production 2001 - 2010 (bcfd)
10
3.5 Tcf/yr
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Demand
8
7
6
Investment Plans
5
4
3
Burgos
Grijalva Delta
Cantarell
2
Base
1
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source A. Guzman, 2001, HGS PEMEX
EP Planning
13
Natural Gas Production Regions and Types
14
Natural Gas
15
Southwest United States Natural Gas Resources
Data Source National Petroleum Council, 1999
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Unconventional Gas
Tight (Low Permeability) Shale Coalbed
Methane Deep (gt15,000 ft) Subsalt Gas
Hydrates Ultra Deep Water
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Impact of Natural Gas Research Tight Gas
4,000.0
3,500.0
3,000.0
2,500.0
2,000.0
Bcf
1,500.0
State of Texas Tight Gas Incentives
1,000.0
Federal Credit for Unconventional Gas
500.0
0.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
GRI, 1999, GRIs Gas Resource Database. DOE
personal communication.
18
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE TIGHT GAS BASINS (Technically
Recoverable Resources)
San Juan (5.6 Tcf)
Data NPC (2000), Based on estimates of NPC
(1993), San Juan Basin tight gas resource
included with oil field reserve appreciation and
new fields in NPC (2000)
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Southwest Region Texas Gulf Coast Onshore

• High-permeability gas production
• Tight gas development, especially along the
  Wilcox Lobo trend
• Increase in drilling activity due to smaller
  reservoirs

Data Source National Petroleum Council, 1999
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Southwest Region San Juan Basin

• Fruitland coalbed methane formation
• Mesa Verde tight gas
• Drilling increase due to denser spacing Fruitland
  and Mesa Verde

Data Source National Petroleum Council, 1999
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Southwest Region Permian Basin

• Deep and tight gas resources in Canyon Sand, Abo,
  and Morrow

Data Source National Petroleum Council, 1999
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Southwest Region Arkla-East Texas

• Conventional associated
• Unconventional from tight gas and Devonian shale

Data Source National Petroleum Council, 1999
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Impact of Natural Gas Research Shale Gas
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
Bcf
150.0
100.0
DOE (1976-1992)
50.0
0.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
GRI, 1999, GRIs Gas Resource Database. DOE
personal communication.
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEVONIAN SHALE
BASINS Technically Recoverable Resources
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Impact of Natural Gas Research Coalbed Methane
1,200
1,000
Federal Alternative Fuels Production Credit for
Unconventional Gas
800
2
600
Bcf
Wellhead Price (/Mcf)
400
200
1
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
GRI, 1999, GRIs Gas Resource Database. DOE
personal communication.
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE COALBED METHANE BASINS (Total
Most Likely Resources)
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP (gt15,000 FT) GAS
BASINS (Total Most Likely Resources)
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP-WATER GAS BASINS (Total
Most Likely Resources)
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Natural Gas Opportunities in México
Productive 1) Sabinas 2) Burgos 3) Veracruz 4)
Macuspana
8
9
7

• Nonproductive
• Mid - High Potential
• 5) Sierra Madre Oriental
• 6) Deep Gulf of México
• Low Potential
• 7) California
• 8) Golfo de California
• 9) Chihuahua

1
2
6
5
3
4
Source A. Guzman, 2001, HGS PEMEX
EP Planning
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Research Technology GOM and Unconventional Gas
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Natural Gas Upstream Research Technology

• 3-D Matrix and Fracture Modeling Simulation
• Rock Physics
• Salt Modeling and Characterization
• High-Frequency Stratigraphy Seismic Outcrops
• 4C 3D, 4D, and 9C 3D Seismic Data
• Advanced Basin and Play Analysis
• Visualization to Achieve Integration

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Fractures
F2
F1
10 m
Weber Sandstone Plan View Fracture Traces CL
Frontier Sandstone, Wyoming Plan View Fracture
Traces Air Photograph
Steve Laubach, FRAC, BEG
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Fracture Strike Mapping Microfractures Predict
Large Fractures
Fracture Strike
Laubach et al., 2000, The Leading Edge Laubach,
1997, AAPG Bulletin
East Texas, Travis Peak Formation
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Previously InvisibleMicrofractures
Fracture
Transmitted Light CL
Match point
Steve Laubach, FRAC, BEG
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Fracture IntensityQuantitative Data for Mapping
and Flow Modeling
Fracture Intensity
Marrett et al., 1999, Geology Stowell, 2000, SPE
West Texas, Ozona Canyon
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Rock Physics BEG Austin Core Warehouse
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Salt Research

• Physical Models

Seismic Studies
Field Studies
Numerical Models
Martin Jackson, AGL, BEG
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3-D Seismic Attributes
Charlie Kerans, RCRL, BEG
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High-Frequency Stratigraphy
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3-D Seismic Amplitude Other Attributes
Source A. Guzman, 2001, HGS PEMEX EP Planning
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Seismic Deep Water AnalysisStratal Slicing
Exposed shelf
QAc6999c
Lesli Wood, SGR, BEG
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9C 3D Seismic Data P, SV, and SH
P
Z
Z
Z
X
X
X
Bob Hardage, EGL, BEG
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9C 3D Seismic Data Fracture Azimuth

0

3
0

6
0

9
0


Q
A
c
8
4
3
1
c
Bob Hardage, EGL, BEG
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High-Frequency Stratigraphy Orthophoto draped on
DEM
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High-Frequency Stratigraphy ILRIS Laser Image
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Summary
U.S. energy demand will be increasingly satisfied
by natural gas and eventually hydrogen.
Deep water and unconventional sources of natural
gas will be major production components, and the
southwest United States and Mexico will play a
dominant role.
Research and technology such as fracture
characterization and modeling, advanced seismic
analysis, and salt modeling and prediction will
improve exploration and development success in
the GOM and for unconventional natural gas.
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Thank you! Gracias!