Reason

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Reason

• The Most Important Element of Biostatistics
  Public Health

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Reason

• Reason, not numerical manipulations, is the most
  IMPORTANT element of biostatistic

If nonsense goes into a statistical analysis,
nonsense will come out. The nonsensical output
will have all the statistical trappings, will
look just as official, just as "scientific," and
just as "objective" as a substantively useful
analysis'. It is, however, the substance and not
the form that is the important thing.
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Epistemological Modesty
Epistemological modesty the understanding that
beliefs are susceptible to error that we must
therefore be modest about what we believe
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Truth Versus Perception
I cannot give any scientist of any age any better
advice than this The intensity of the conviction
that a hypothesis is true has no bearing on
whether it is true or not. Peter Medawar
1915-1987
Platos Allegory of the Cave. We observe merely
shadows on the cave wall. But what is really out
there?
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Rules of Sociologic Method Durkheim, 1895
Durkheim differentiated between notiones
vulgares (crudely formed popular notions of
natural and social phenomena) and true social
science.
Emile Durkheim (1858-1917)
(c) B. Gerstman 2007
Chapter 9
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Science Without Sense

• Flawed research
• Costs billions
• Provides pseudo-knowledge
• Results in lost credibility
• Causes unnecessary disease, disability, and death

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Which do you choose?
Frankfurt, H. G. (2005). Princeton University
Press
Blackburn, S. (2005). Oxford Univ. Press
BS manipulates beliefs toward a desired outcome.
Truth bends over backwards to understand
alternatives.
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