RDDs: A Rising Concern. RDD Radiological Dispersal Device

1
Radiation Weapons

• Dr. Charles D. Ferguson
• Scientist-in-Residence
• Center for Nonproliferation Studies
• Monterey Institute of International Studies
• CIF Teacher Development Workshop
• December 2, 2004
• Supported by the John D. and Catherine T.
  MacArthur Foundation and
• the Ploughshares Fund

2
RDDs A Rising Concern

• RDD Radiological Dispersal Devices such as
  dirty bombs
• Heightened Concern
• Are radioactive materials secure?
• Attacks of September 11, 2001
• Al Qaeda has expressed interest in RDDs
• Widespread news reporting

3
Characteristics of RDDs

• RDDs are NOT Weapons of Mass Destruction
• Few, if any, people would die immediately or
  shortly after exposure to ionizing radiation from
  typical RDD
• RDDs can be
• Weapons of Mass Disruption
• Major effects
• Panic
• Economic costs
• (decontamination and
• rebuilding)

4
Long-Term Contamination from Cobalt Bomb in NYC
Inner Ring One cancer death per 100 people due
to remaining radiation Middle Ring One cancer
death per 1,000 people due to remaining
radiation Outer Ring One cancer death per
10,000 people due to remaining radiation Ref
Federation of American Scientists, Testimony to
U.S. Senate, March 2002
5
Cobalt Bomb in NYC Chornobyl Comparison
Inner Ring Same radiation level as permanently
closed zone around Chornobyl Middle Ring Same
radiation level as permanently controlled
zone around Chornobyl Outer Ring Same
radiation level as periodically controlled zone
around Chornobyl Ref FAS, March 2002.
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Immediate Effects Americium Bomb in NYC
Ref FAS, March 2002
Inner Ring All people must receive medical
supervision. Middle Ring Maximum annual dose for
radiation workers exceeded. Outer Ring Area
should be evacuated before radiation cloud
passes.
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Contamination from Americium Bomb in NYC
Ref FAS, March 2002
Inner Ring One cancer death per 100 people due
to remaining radiation. Middle Ring One cancer
death per 1,000 Outer Ring One cancer death per
10,000
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FAS Study Cesium Bomb2 curies Cs-137 10 lb. TNT
Inner ring 1 cancer death/100 people due to
remaining radiation Middle ring 1 cancer
death/1,000 people Outer ring 1 cancer
death/10,000 people EPA recommends
decontamination or destruction
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The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism

• Acquisition of an intact nuclear weapon
• Crude nuclear weapon or Improvised Nuclear Device
  (IND)
• Attack against or sabotage of a nuclear power
  plant or other nuclear facility
• Radiological dispersal device (RDD) or dirty
  bomb

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Assessing Risk

• Risk Probability X Consequence
• Large uncertainties
• Lack of data
• Alternatively
• Risk Motivation X Intention X Capability X
  Consequence

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Battlefield Dirty Bombs?

• Physical, psychological, and political impacts
• Area denial double-edged sword
• Contaminating an area could hinder friendly
  forces
• Many soldiers may fear any excess exposure to
  radiation if not properly trained

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First Examination of Battlefield Use

• 1941 U.S. National Academy of Sciences proposed
  production of violently radioactive materials
  carried by airplanes to be scattered over enemy
  territory.
• 1946 Operation Crossroads tests at Bikini Atoll
  in the Marshall Islands ? widespread
  contamination
• 1947 DOD assembled experts to study Rad War

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U.S. Tests (continued)

• During late 1940s and into 1950s, the United
  States continued radiological weapons tests.
• Concluded that radiation weapons were not
  effective battlefield weapons, but could have a
  significant psychological effect
• Need very large quantities of radioactive
  material to contaminate large areas of land ?
  consider the 1986 Chernobyl accident

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Problems with Very Potent (Military-Capable) RDDs

• Large quantities of radioactive material require
  lots of shielding
• Generate lots of heat
• Have to be able to ground material to micron size
  particles
• Effects highly dependent on terrain and weather
  conditions
• Early experiments showed that cities would
  require something approaching 100 times greater
  concentration

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CIA Report on Middle East Oil Fields Denial

• 1950, CIA did a feasibility study that examined
  denying Soviet access to Saudi oil fields by
  using radiation weapons
• Two reasons against plan
• expendable Arabs could enter contaminated
  areas to open well heads and deplete the
  reservoirs.
• Conventional explosives are effective at plugging
  oil heads while not denying access to allied
  forces

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Iraqs Examination of Radiation Weapons

• 1987 test designed to cause vomiting, cancer,
  birth defects, and slow death
• Test done during Iran-Iraq War
• The Iraqi radiation weapon would weaken enemy
  units from the standpoint of health and inflict
  losses that would be difficult to explain,
  possibly producing a psychological effect as
  claimed by the Iraqi report on the project.

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Would Saddams Dirty Bomb have Killed People?

• It was a dud.
• Radiation levels were too low.
• Zirconium-95 half-life 75.5 days
• Zirconium powder ignites spontaneously in air
• Main flaw irradiated charges had to be replaced
  almost weekly
• Another flaw psychological reaction among
  workers
• Project was abandoned

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Neutron Bomb

• Enhanced radiation weapon
• Specialized thermonuclear weapon that reduces
  blast but boosts radiation effects

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Depleted Uranium (DU) Munitions

• Contentious issue
• Many militaries, especially the U.S. military,
  uses DU ammunition
• Very effective at penetrating armor
• Weakly radioactive
• Toxic, esp. to kidneys

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Major Misconception

• Myth An RDD literally must use conventional
  explosives a bomb to disperse radioactive
  materials
• Reality Many methods are available

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Dispersal Methods

• Depends on objective, skill level, and type of
  radioactive material need to know both chemical
  and nuclear properties
• Conventional Explosives
• Spraying
• Powder
• Solution
• Contaminate food supplies
• Contaminate water supplies

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Better RED than Dead?

• Radiation Emission Device
• Place radioactive sources in densely populated
  public places
• Place a potent radioactive source near a targeted
  person

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Conclusions

• RDDs are not effective military weapons
• But are effective are causing psychosocial
  effects
• Could also be effective at contaminating relative
  large civilian land areas
• Could make effective economic warfare weapons
• Crude RDDs are easy for most terrorist groups to
  build