Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management

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Climate Information and Agricultural Risk
Management

• A Systemic Approach to Understanding Farmers
  Decision-Making

T. A. Crane, C. Roncoli, N. E. Breuer, J. O.
Paz, K. T. Ingram, K. Broad, G. Hoogenboom
University of Georgia, University of Miami,
University of Florida
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Outline

• Research methods and setting
• Interactions with weather and climate information
  systems
  
• Potential adaptive strategies
• Challenges to forecast use
• Farmers suggestions for usability

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Methods and Research Setting

• Sample 38 farmers
• Sites 21 counties in South Georgia
• Methods Semi-structured interviews
• Weather and climate information systems
• Climate variability and risk mgmt. strategies
• Potential adaptations

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Methods and Research Setting

• Sample 38 farmers
• Sites 21 counties in South Georgia
• Methods Semi-structured interviews
• Mixed production systems
• Avg. 2 per operation

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Weather Climate Info Sources

• Daily use, often accessed multiple times
• Spraying
• Planting
• Irrigation
• Confidence low beyond 3-5 days
• Wives children are often internet users
  information gateways

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Weather Climate Info Sources

• Passive exposure to climate forecasts
• 90-day forecasts not used in agric. decisions
• Conversation piece
• Peace of mind
• Collective credibility

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Adaptive Management Options

• Cropping strategy
• Corn or cotton ?
• Dry land corn ?
• Soil crop forecast ?
• Forward contracts ?
• Planting schedule
• Dry year pine planting ?
• Late frost risk ?

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Adaptive Management Options
Forecast Use Irwin County Spring 2006 forecast f
or summer drought ? widespread shift from long-
to short-cycle peanut variety
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Non-Climate Variables as Management Drivers

• Agronomic requirements
• Commodity prices
• Insurance constraints
• Input prices
• Credit options
• Policy environment
• Price supports
• Trade policies
• Immigration laws

Relative uncertainty of forecasts compared to
non-climate variables competition as mgmt.
driver
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Challenges to Farmers Use of Forecasts

• Discrepancy in scales of forecasts decisions
• Temporal
• Spatial
• Inexperience with climate forecasts
• Unawareness of potential
• Skepticism of accuracy
• Discrepancy in understandings of key concepts
• Probability
• Accuracy

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Challenges to Farmers Use of Forecasts

• Difficulty in processing additional information
• Time
• Mental energy
• Inflexibility of highly-capitalized operations
• Indebtedness
• Infrastructural investments
• Large acreage
• Potential for actors to leverage info over
  farmers
  
• Lenders
• Insurers
• Brokers

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Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS

• Create recognizable identity for DSS
• Show the people behind it
• Association with land-grant university
• Communication
• Use lay-users language
• Show you understand what it means to be a
  farmer
  
• Layer information for different users
• Cultivate habitual reference to site
• Regular outreach
• Keep information updated

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Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS

• Enable users to evaluate forecasts
• Publish forecast history
• Publish forecast performance records
• Explain probability upfront
• Integrate users feedback into product
  development and assessment

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Questions?
www.agclimate.org
http//secc.coaps.fsu.edu/
This research was supported by funding from NO
AA
USDA-RMA USDA-CSREES