Science and society in Anthropocene

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Science and society in Anthropocene

• Roxana Bojariu
• Administratia Nationala de Meteorologie
• Ad Astra
• bojariu_at_clicknet.ro
• http//www.inmh.ro
• http//www.ad-astra.ro

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Summary

• Brave new epoch -Anthropocene
• Cultural dimensions of Anthropocene
• Climate change and its cultural solutions
• IPCC process
• Scientists, politicians and res publica
• Climate and cultural change in Romania
• Conclusions

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In Anthropocene human population increased
tenfold to 6000 million. Urbanisation has even
increased tenfold in the past century. In a few
generations mankind is exhausting the fossil
fuels that were generated over several hundred
million years.
Source IPCC,2007
it seems to us more than appropriate to
emphasize the central role of mankind in geology
and ecology by proposing to use the term
'anthropocene' for the current geological epoch.
To assign a more specific date to the onset of
the 'anthropocene" seems somewhat arbitrary, but
we propose the latter part of the 18th century.
we choose this date because, during the past
two centuries, the global effects of human
activities have become clearly noticeable. Such a
starting date also coincides with James Watt's
invention of the steam engine in 1784. Unless
there is a global catastrophe a meteorite
impact, a world war or a pandemic mankind will
remain a major environmental force for many
millennia.
Paul J. Crutzen Eugene F. Stoermer (2000)
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Brave new epoch - Anthropocene
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
is now evident from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global mean sea level.
Source IPCC, 2007
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Cultural dimensions of Anthropocene

• Climate change issues transcend individual
  contours in space and time and have become a
  cultural problem, more than an economic or
  politic one. The solution is mainly of cultural
  nature.
• A Holocene lesson for Anthropocene
• Neanderthals probably could not survive the rapid
  and repeated changes of cold and warm periods of
  that time due to their extremely limited cultural
  adaptability
• their social networks were not complex enough to
  adapt to changes in population as temperatures
  went up and down
• it is likely that Neanderthals, less able to
  compete and adapt to the changing environment,
  were replaced by modern humans with their
  inventiveness, more complex social structures,
  more elaborated communication, which enabled the
  modern humans to utilize a greater range of
  resources.
• the social cohesiveness of modern humans has been
  an evolutionary advantage
• Homo Sapiens survival in Anthropocene depend on
  cultural values such as
• Adaptive strategies (e.g. research development)
• Social complex structures (e.g. EU, UN)
• Intensive communication (politic dialogue on
  national and international levels)
• Social cohesiveness (e.g. collaborations,
  technology transfers among nations)

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Climate change and its cultural
solutionsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
1st IPCC Report
1990 1992 1995 1997 2001 2005 2007
Uncertainties
RIO
2nd IPCC Report
Kyoto
3rd IPCC Report
Kyoto in action

4th IPCC Report
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Climate and cultural change in Romania

• Facts
• Romanian annual temperature increased in the last
  century with 0.3 C the increase is regionally
  modulated with higher values of 0.8 C in
  extra-Carpathian regions.
• Annual precipitation generally decreased in the
  last century, but the pattern of change is less
  coherent than the thermal one.
• Statistics of extreme events is changing (e.g.
  increased number of hot days, decreased number of
  frost days, higher values for minimum and maximum
  temperatures, especially in in winter and summer,
  higher precipitation intensity).

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Climate and cultural change in Romania

• Facts
• Romania was the first European country to sign
  the Kyoto protocol
• Romanian reduction of GHG emissions is high
  (about 30 - 1989 level) mostly due to economic
  recession in 90s
• Energy efficiency is low (6 x lower than European
  average)
• Hydro-electric production and other renewable
  energy sources provide 28.8 of the total
  electric energy produced in Romania - Romania is
  the 3rd in the top of Eastern European countries
  from the standpoint of clean-energy use possible
  problems in future due to projected reduction of
  water resources in South-Eastern Europe under
  climate change
• other alternative sources consist of geothermal,
  wind and solar energy
• Railway accounts for a large part of total
  transport implying a climate-friendly
  development, but road importance significantly
  increases in recent years (in 2001, roads account
  for 50 of Romanian transport)
• However, Romania has to spent 30 billions Euro to
  implement all European environmental standards
• Romania An Assessment of the Lisbon Scorecard
• GEA-SOREC Report, 2004
• Daniel Daianu, Amalia Fugaru, Valentin Lazea,
  Bianca Pauna, DragosPîslaru, Gheorghe Oprescu,
  Liviu Voinea

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Short term motivations of public perception
related to climate change issues in Romania

• A long sequence of strong flash flood events
  occurred in Romania from April 2005 to early
  October
• 70 deaths
• estimated costs of around 3 billion Euro.
• Flash floods in July 2006
• 10 deaths
• 67 villages from 12 counties
• Flash floods in March 2007
• 38 villages from 10 counties.

SPM of AR4 report (IPCC, 2007) the intensity of
precipitation on land is growing under global
warming conditions.
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Scientists and res publica in Romania
The general perception level on the effects
of Climate Change is very low. Nevertheless, some
concerns appeared during the past years, due to
the increased number of draughts and floods. Why?
Widespread low living standards (most peoples
planning level is about How to live tomorrow,
while for the even-not-very-remote future Well
manage somehow). There is a lack of a concerted
media campaign, except for the Romanian Service
of the BBC. Most of the climate news generally
reflects political meetings or related
sensationalist news. Dr. Adrian Stanica Senior
researcher, Romanian National Institute for
Marine Geology and Geo-ecology And Freelance
science journalist for the Romanian Service of
the BBC World Service Radio (since 2000),
co-producer of the Science Magazine weekly
feature and daily scientific news and
actualities. Romania It is
considered sometimes that a new fashion or a hot
new issue for media has started related to
climate change. There has also been a National
Plan developed by our Ministry, officially
approved through an act. In 2007 the
British Embassy together with the Ministry of
Environment and Water Management will start a
public campaign distributing leaflets, training
school teachers and organizing workshops to
increase awareness of climate change.
Romanians associate climate change with not
having usually heavy snowy winters, the
increasing floods frequency with disastrous
consequences, hurricanes for the first time,
fires or stormy weather during winters causing
erosion serious problems and not distinguished
seasons anymore. This means that both the
environment and economy (tourism, agriculture,
forestry, fishing) are affected. Dumitru
Dorogan Ministry of Environment and Sustainable
Development/ Water Resource Management Direction,
Romania
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Conclusions

• In my opinion, a cultural mutation is needed to
  cope effectively with climate change
• The cultural mutation has to reintegrate modern
  humans in physis/nature