Future software trends Pulling down the barricades

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Future software trends - Pulling down the
barricades?
Alan Pelz-Sharpe Principle Consultant
Email aps_at_ovum.com Direct line 020 7551 9000 Date
May 2001 www.ovum.com
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Agenda
Not all trends are worth following !

• Market forecasts - How the market is structured
• Whats hype - whats not
• Key developments to watch
• How these may impact the world of education
• Summary

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The current market
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Dont believe everything you read

• XML
• WAP
• Bluetooth
• KM.etc etc
• Most analyst companies are funded
  vendors.therefore they need to hype markets !

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who are the key influencers?

• the five key players are
• IBM
• Microsoft
• Oracle
• SAP
• Sun
• others may be as big, but not influential (CA, HP
  )

• they influence in terms of
• how applications are built
• what infrastructure theyre run on
• what applications are fashionable

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Where the real money sits.

• Microsoft 22 bn
• IBM 12.5 bn
• Hitachi 5.9 bn
• CA 4.9 bn
• Oracle 3.9 bn
• ...then HP, SAP, Sun ...

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software is a developed world phenomenon

• 80 of software purchase in only 10 countries

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The sedimentary model

• Mainframe software is much of the sediment and
  much of the market

• Most analyst research is into the turbulent layer
  need to get its importance into perspective

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You play in my park, you play by my rules
Top 10 Vendors
Small IT players
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ASP - give it all to someone else to worry about !
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Clients servers, fat thin
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Is ASP about to take over the world?

• Some say the answer is yes and quickly
• Five years from now, if youre a CIO with a head
  for business, you wont be buying computers any
  more. You wont be buying software either.
  Scott McNealy, CEO, Sun Microsystems 1999
• On the other hand
• Does the concept of the ASP fill IT managers
  with the same excitement as their suppliers and
  the media? BTs experience seems to indicate
  not.Computer Weekly, January 2000

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An Application Service Provider

• provides software application capabilities on a
  rental basis, according to a service level
  agreement
• delivers the service on a one-to-many basis via a
  Wide Area Network - usually an IP network
• Of value to the Education sector ?

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What is pervasive computing?
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A definition

• Pervasive computing is a vision of the future of
  digital information and computation
• in which digital content, applications and
  services are made available
• in an integrated, personalised way
• to users via a diverse range of devices and
  access networks

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What is pervasive computing? 2

• Its not just about computers everywhere
• but computers, networks, content, applications
  and services everywhere
• The Internet isnt part of the definition, but IP
  is the enabler
• Any service to any device over any network
• not EVERY service to EVERY device over EVERY
  network

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A picture
Today content and service stovepipes
Tomorrow personalised universes of content and
services
E-commerce
Traffic, navigation
Entertainment
Communication
My Comms Entertainment Information Commerce
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Another picture
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Who wants it ?

• Software and hardware vendors
• Your students
• Governments (who love everything e and that
  appears to bring computing to the masses

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Pulling it all together
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Why now?
Convergence of digital media
stimulates
stimulates
Transformation from products into services
Diversification of information access
stimulates
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Why at all ?

• The big boys want it
• Users want it
• The PC market is saturated
• Dissolution is becoming rife - time for a new
  revolution
• ASP without Pervasive is a restricted business
  model
• P2P and Open Source will not be a revolution -
  more a minor skirmish
• It makes sense !

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When ?

• When the last dollar has been squeezed out of
  existing methods
• When 3G and Broadband builds momentum
• When the business costs make it an imperative
• When niche sectors.education ? prove its
  success

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Type conclusion statement here
Dont hold your breath !