How SwedishBased Scientists Can Win More Nobel Prizes

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How Swedish-Based Scientists Can Win More Nobel
Prizes

• Donald W Braben
• Department of Earth Sciences
• University College London
• don.braben_at_btinternet.com
• www.es.ucl.ac.uk/people/braben
• Visby, Sweden
• 30 June 2009

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Nobel Prizes in the Sciences

• A nations tally of science Nobels is an
  internationally-endorsed indicator of
• creativity
• scientific leadership
• a nations scientific health
• A high tally of Nobels
• Inspires and stimulates the entire research
  community
• Indicates that a Governments science policies
  are correct
• Provides excellent foundations for economic
  growth
• Raises public awareness and appreciation of
  science

D W Braben, 2009
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Percentage of Science Nobel Prizes Won by
Nation-based Scientists
D W Braben 2009
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Academic Research

• Before 1970
• Universities autonomous
• Scientific freedom the norm
• Peer review used mainly for large grant
  applications
• After 1970
• Use of peer review progressively increased
• UK became by far the most peer reviewed nation
  in the world
• Last 10-20 years
• Peer review of proposals mandatory
• Increased concentration on high-priority fields
• Reduction in the number of small grants
• Erosion of trust

D W Braben 2009
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Peer Review

• Has two components
• Peer review of completed work
• Peer review of research proposals peer
  preview
• Peer review
• Is as old as the hills
• Is based on assessments of actual performance
• Discoveries may be controversial, but their
  existence cannot be denied
• Sooner or later, justice will probably be done
• Peer preview
• Claimed to be the gold standard for assessing
  future performance
• Implicitly assumes that science is democratic
• Is usually carried out anonymously, and often
  in secret
• Has the power to veto proposals
• Restricts scientific freedom
• Leads to concentration on fashionable fields
• Therefore, it favours nations with the highest
  investments in RD

D W Braben 2009
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Swedish Research Council Policy 2009-2012

• Extracts
• Swedish research funding must be strengthened.
  
• Research policy needs to be long-term.
• Quality and competition should be leading
  principles of resource allocation.
• Quality and renewal are best fostered if
  research resources are distributed after peer
  review.
• These points seem reasonable. However, which
  Nobel Prize winning work would have survived
  competiveness or peer-review assessments when it
  was starting?

D W Braben 2009
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Venture Research Strategy

• Aims to stimulate unpredictable discoveries of
  Nobel Prize-winning calibre. Fosters individual
  freedom, and creates an environment in which
  radical researchers can select themselves.
• Some details
• Funds should be "free"- that is available for
  use as required
• No boundaries
• No deadlines
• No milestones
• No peer preview
• No priorities
• No specific objectives other than to understand
  or explore
• Researchers free to go in any direction at any
  time
• Risk to be selected and managed by the
  researchers
• Above all, it aims to foster mutual trust and
  respect

D W Braben 2009
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Venture Research 1980 1990

• Supported radical research in any field,
  anywhere
• Total BP expenditure 15 million
• Final number of research programmes 26
• All except one had been rejected by peer preview
• Number of scientific breakthroughs at least
  14
• The initiative ended in 1990. Subsequently,
  theres been strong industrial interest in the
  development of Venture Research outcomes.
  Estimated value over the next decade 1 billion

D W Braben 2009
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Some Venture Research Discoveries

• Mike Bennett
• and Pat Heslop-Harrison Discovered a new
  pathway for evolution and genetic control
• Terry Clark Pioneered the study of macroscopic
  quantum objects
• Stan Clough
• and Tony Horsewill Solved the quantum-classical
  transition problem by developing new
  relativity and quantum theories
• Steve Davies Developed small artificial enzymes
  for efficient chiral selection
• Nigel Franks,
• Jean Louis Deneubourg,
• Simon Goss, Chris Tofts Quantified the rules
  describing distributed intelligence in animals
• Herbert Huppert
• and Steve Sparks Pioneered the new field of
  geological fluid mechanics
• Jeff Kimble Pioneered squeezed states of light
• Graham Parkhouse Derived a novel theory
  of engineering design relating performance to
  shapes and materials
• Alan Paton, Eunice Allen,
• Anne Glover Discovered a new symbiosis between
  plants and bacteria
• Martyn Poliakoff
• Ken Seddon Transformed Green Chemistry
• Colin Self Demonstrated that antibodies in
  vivo can be activated by light
• Gene Stanley

D W Braben 2009
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The Nobel Solution

• A patron (public or private) recognises the
  limitations of current selection procedures and
  wants to correct them
• Sets up an agency to promote Venture Research to
  be run in parallel with existing funding
  arrangements
• Venture Research methodology has proved that it
  can identify researchers of potentially Nobel
  Prize winning calibre
• Selection process will use novel but proven
  techniques. They are researcher- neutral and
  carried out openly in dialogue with applicants at
  every stage

D W Braben 2009
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Messages to governments

• Academic research
• Is enhanced when its focused on originality
• Is devalued when its focused on
  competitiveness, impact, etc
• Relationships between universities and industry
  should be partnerships of equals. Neither should
  dictate what the other does.
• Governments must be persuaded of the special
  nature of science.
• Academic research uses public money, but the
  return on investment before 1970 when academics
  were largely free was huge and transformed 20th
  century life.
• Under todays arrangements, academics struggle to
  exist.

D W Braben 2009
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Academic Research Policies for the 21st century

• Governments should
• Seek to enhance the national Nobel tally. There
  is at least one proven way (Venture Research) of
  identifying researchers capable of making
  discoveries of comparable calibre to those that
  win Nobel Prizes. Initial costs would be low,
  and economic benefits would follow very quickly
• Move towards restoring scientific freedom.
  Progressively arrange that tenured researchers
  are allocated modest funds they can use freely.
  This transition will be long (probably more than
  10 years) and painful, but eventually it must be
  made.
• Stimulate the creation of new relationships with
  commerce and industry based on partnerships of
  equals
• The return on investment in academic research
  before 1970 was huge and transformed 20th
  century life. The above policies, effectively
  pursued, therefore offer the most sensible way of
  taking into account the need to justify public
  expenditure

D W Braben 2009
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Scientific Freedom The Elixir of Civilization
Donald W Braben, Wiley 2008.