Insurgency as a Human Network

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Insurgency as a Human Network
T. X. Hammes November 05
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Enduring Characteristics of Insurgency

• Political
• Political not military fight
• US critical vulnerability is will
• No military victory required
• Uses international boundaries
• Low technology side wins
• Protracted
• Decades

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Emerging Characteristics of Insurgency

• Human Network
• Resilient, flexible, fast
• Coalitions of the Willing - local, regional,
  global, cyberspace
• External actors drawn to the conflict
• Transnational
• Actors a single nationality or in a single nation

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Emerging Characteristics of Insurgency

• Transdimensional
• Real and cyber elements
• Some elements exist only in cyber others in both
• Self supporting
• Fund raising/charity organizations
• Legitimate businesses
• Criminal enterprises
• Reflects todays society

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Insurgent Ideology

• Themes vary by group
• Growing impact of causes rather than nationalism
• All address Friedmans Poverty of Dignity
• Lack of power to influence own future
• All offer a way out Islamic, Sunni, Pashtun,
  Tamil, Chechen ...
• Not about poverty, lack of education, etc.

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Enduring Characteristics of Counterinsurgency

• Governance
• Security first
• Without security, people cant help
• Hope for a better future
• Better according to people
• Must address Poverty of Dignity

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Emerging Characteristics of Counterinsurgency

• International effort required
• Insurgent is transnational/transdimensional
• Must deal with multiple aspirations
• Coalition of Willing can be broken up
• External actors must be eliminated
• True believers not subject to influence
• Must be kept from returning to their homeland

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Why a model of human connections?

• Reflects insurgencies as they operate
• Best visual model of reality not an org chart
• Reveals interaction between all nodes
• Shows true impact of friendly personnel decisions
• Networks allow for human elements
• Will, decisions, insights, charisma
• Networks actively seek to grow
• Adapt rapidly seek to secure niche govern
• Networks interact with environment and other nets
• Can portray transdimensional aspects
• Works at all levels from international to local

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Network Analysis Visualization and
understanding

• A string of recent breathtaking discoveries has
  forced us to acknowledge that amazingly simple
  and far-reaching laws govern the structure and
  evolution of all the complex networks that
  surround us.
  Albert-Laslzo Barabasi Linked The New Science
  of Networks

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Use the Laws

• Understand type of network
• Scale free
• Very few huge hubs (Google, Yahoo, Amazon)
• Huge number of tiny nodes (Personal web pages)
• Small world Very small, little outside contact
  -9/11 cells
• Map nodes and links
• Pre-existing social nets
• Intelligence reports
• Persons, events, organizations
• Anti-gang/network analysis software
• Look for blanks in maps
• Templating for 21st Century

Already been done!
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The Al Qaeda Human Network
Sageman
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Pre-existing vs Operational Links
Sageman
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Key Outputs

• Intensely HUMAN activities to map
• Know hubs
• Understand how environment feeds hubs
• Understand how changing environment impacts hubs
• Know links between hubs
• In real time
• In cyber
• Between cyber and real

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What do human connections tell us?

• Hub relationships
• Inside organizations
• Between organizations
• Is same person or organization a hub in more than
  one?
• Your map versus theoretical map
• Are there elements missing?
• Scan the gaps
• Mapping should reveal
• Changes over time in nodes/hubs/links
• Relationships
• Anomalies
• Only by understanding relationships can you
  determine actions to be taken

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Small World Terror Cells
Badr Militia
Recruiting Web
Training Web Site
Sunni
Sadr Militia
Zarqawi
Sistani Org
Sadr
Sunni
Chat Room
Salafis
Sistani Website
NGO
Iraqi Govt
Sunni Business
ISF
Gov Web
Oil Industry
Electronic Herd
USG Website
Coalition Forces
US Embassy
Contractor
DC
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Strategy Its about PEOPLE

• Integrated command/execution
• Strengthen your key nodes
• Central task remains governance
• Weaken his key nodes
• Change environment population control is
  essential
• Exploit tensions between groups
• Create counter networks
• Information operations

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Integrated Execution

• Get strategy right resources to requirements
• Black, grey, white if short resources
• Always population control
• Delegate to in-theater leadership
• Mission orders
• Allocate resources
• Committee structure networked leadership
• Host nation and US personnel on SAME staff
• Committee structure
• Senior member is usually civilian selected by
  senior committee
• Long tours plus language requirements pay for
  it
• Eliminate stovepipes
• Each province commander owns all assets in his
  area
• Has control of performance reports/careers
• Civil not military problem
• Must build civil capability

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Network Attack Plan

• Identify people hubs real and cyber
• OO trumps DA in OODA loop
• Enemy leadership wont look like a hub
• FUNDAMENTAL RULES
• 1. Exploit is better than attack
• 2. Best attack is soft attack
• creates distrust in enemy network
• 3. If hard attack, targeted, simultaneous attacks
  only otherwise network repairs
• Increase surveillance after attack

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Information Campaign

• Integral to both strengthen and attack
• Integrated Host Nation/US
• US is junior partner
• Strategic themes local release
• Mission orders for IO too
• MUST not be controlled from DC or by US agency
• Cultural understanding
• Speed of response
• Targeted message
• Different for various audience
• Messages do not conflict
• Must be based on truth learn to deal with
  mistakes
• Abu Ghraib accountability
• Anti-Islam sentiment in administration

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New Capabilities Required

• Change personnel policies
• Professional and educational development
• Beyond Goldwater-Nichols for Interagency
• Separation from parent agency upon deployment
• Cultural and language expertise
• Advisory capability civil and security
• Human network analysis
• Trained Personnel culture, language, networks
• Software

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Summary

• Insurgency is a competition between human
  networks
• Must understand those nets
• Cultural, historical
• Insurgent, HNG, People, Coalition, NGOs
• Strategy should be based on network interaction
• Strengthen our key nodes
• Weaken his key nodes
• Shift mass from connecting to him to connecting
  to us
• Governance is the central function
• Security for the people NOT killing Ts
• Hope for the future