Divided Korea:

1
Divided Korea

• Genesis of a Nuclear Flashpoint
• Whence the Axis of Evil?

2
Two Koreas Today

• South Korea
• GDP Per Capita 20,400
• Military Expenses 21.06 billion
• Military as share of GDP 2.6
• Population 48,846,823
• Infant mortality
• 6.16 deaths/1,000 live births

• North Korea
• GDP Per Capita
• 1,800
• Military Expenses 5.21 Billion
• Military as share of GDP 31
• Population 23,113,019
• Infant Mortality
• 23.29 deaths/1,000 live births

3
Geography
4
Geography

• Division roughly along the 38th Parallel
• North Korea Communist, anti-American
• South Korea Capitalist, pro-American

5
Korean History

• 1910 Japanese Annexation
• Western and US Complicity
• Taft-Katsura Agreement
• Domestic Independence Movements
• March 1st Movement, 1919
• Independence Movements in Exile
• US Based Syngman Rhee
• China and Soviet Based Kim Il Sung

6
Korean History

• Repression under Japan
• Japanese Language
• Japanese Names
• Japanese Education
• Forced labor and military service,
• Comfort Women

7
WW II in Korean History

• World War II
• Pearl Harbor
• US Plan Germany first, then Japan

8
WW II in Korean History

• Cairo Conference 1943
• Korea to be occupied
• Korean Independence in due time

9
WW II in Korean History

• Yalta Conference
• Feb. 411, 1945
• USSR to join war on Japan 3 months after German
  surrender
• USSR to participate in occupation of Korea
• Potsdam Conference
• July 17Aug. 2, 1945
• Yalta Conference arrangements for Korea Confirmed

10
WW II in Korean History

• August 6, 1945, Atom bomb on Hiroshima
• August 8, 1945, Russians enter the war against
  Japan, fulfilling their Yalta Conference
  agreement
• August 9, 1945, Atom bomb on Nagasaki
• August 10/11, 1945 (about midnight), young
  colonels, Dean Rusk and Charles Bonesteel, under
  orders from Gen. McArthur, draw a division line
  at the 38th parallel, keeping the capital city,
  Seoul, in the American area.
• August 15, 1945, Japan Surrenders.

11
Cold War History Korea

• USA/USSR tensions emerge almost at once
• USA envisions capitalist democracy
• USSR envisions communist government

12
South Korean History

• October, 1945
• Syngman Rhee returned to South Korea from the US
• Welcomed as a nationalist resistance leader by US
  leadership.

13
North Korean History

• October, 1945
• Kim Il Sung returns to North Korea from Manchuria
• Welcomed by Soviets as a nationalist resistance
  leader

14
Cold War History US

• Containment
• 1947
• George Kennan writes Mr. X article
• Coins term and policy of Containment

15
Two Koreas

• Emerging Cold War conflict between USA and USSR
• Joint elections impractical
• Two separate Korean Governments established
• 1948 Elections in both North and South Korea

16
Two Koreas

• Republic of Korea (South)
• Syngman Rhees Government 1948-1960
• Pro-American
• Capitalist
• Anti-communist
• Pro Christian
• Authoritarian
• Corrupt
• Inept

• Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (North)
• Kim Il Sungs Government 1948-1994
• Pro-Soviet / Pro-Chinese
• Anti-American
• Communist
• Becomes anti-religion
• Authoritarian
• Isolationist

17
Korean War

• January 12, 1950
• United States Secretary of State Dean Acheson
• US Press Club RE America's Pacific defense
  perimeter
• Implies that the U.S. might not fight over Korea
• This omission encouraged the North and the Soviets

18
Korean War

• War begins June 25, 1950 North Korea Invades
• Incheon landing, September 15 - September 28,
  1950
• Chinese entry, October, 1950
• January 4, 1951, Communist Chinese and North
  Korean forces recapture Seoul.
• MacArthur was removed from command by President
  Truman on April 11, 1951.
• Stalemate, July, 1951

19
Korean Division

• Originally 38th parallel
• Post Korean War Red line called the DMZ

20
Korean War Ends

• Cease Fire July 27, 1953
• Neither Korea Signed Armistice
• State of war continues
• Both Koreas considered themeslves the only
  legitimate authority
• Both Koreas had aurhoritarian dictatorships at
  least through 1987

21
Post Korean War History

• South Korea 40,000 US troops remain to guard
  South Korea
• US supports pro American authoritarian regimes
• North Korea Chinese troops leave
• North argues that South Korea is an occupied
  country, not independent
• North sees US troops as a threat

22
South Korean History

• South Korea
• Corruption, incompetence, and cheating on
  elections leads to Syngman Rhees departure 1960
• Military Coup brings Military to power in South
  Korea

23
South Korean History

• Park Chung Hee leads South Korea
• Military Dictator
• Harsh discipline
• Anti-communist
• Economic development for national security
• Fantastic economic growth
• Terrible human rights

24
North Korean History

• Kim Il Sung in North Korea
• Juche Ideology
• National independence
• Aligned with USSR and China
• Plays them off against each other until 1991
• Standard pattern of brinksmanship to get what he
  wants

25
North Korea

• North Korea sees 40,000 US troops on its southern
  border as a major threat
• South Korea is simply a colony of the US.
• NO need to work with SK, it is the US that
  matters.
• Develops Juche ideology of independence
• Economic independence
• Military independence
• Focus on Peoples needs
• In reality, Juche is a failure both in
  independence and in Peoples needs.

26
North Korea

• Authoritarian
• Anti religious persecution
• Inefficient production, very little economic
  growth
• Becomes progressively less secure as South Korea
  outgrows the North

27
North Korea

• Cold War ends
• Communist Block Collapses 1991
• North Korea cant play China and Russia against
  each other
• South Korean President Roh Tae Woo (1988-1993)
  launches Norde Politic drive and normalizes
  relations with China and Russia, Isolating North
  Korea

28
Northern Crisis

• Isolated North Korea has difficulty feeding its
  population
• Bad weather
• Communist incentive structure
• Poor distribution
• No more cheap resources from China and Russia
• 25-30 of GDP spent on military

29
Nuclear Crisis

• North Korea launches Nuclear program, 1990
• 1994 NK Withdraws from membership with
  International Atomic Energy Agency
• Jimmy Carter visits Korea representing Clinton
  Administration
• 1994 Agreed Framework negotiated
• N. Korea gives up nuclear weapons for energy
  support
• Korean Economic Development Organization (KEDO)
  formed to help N. Korean energy development.

30
Relevant History

• Kim Il Sung dies in 1994
• Kim Jong Il succeeds his father and continues his
  fathers government patterns
• US and most experts expected North Korea to
  collapse under economic strains and leadership
  transition.

31
Nuclear Crisis

• 1994 Agreed Framework
• DPRK's nuclear power plants would be replaced
  with light water reactor (LWR) power plants by a
  target date of 2003.
• Oil for heating and electricity production would
  be provided while DPRK's reactors were shut down,
  until completion of the first LWR power unit.

32
Nuclear Crisis

• 1994 Agreed Framework
• The two sides would move toward full
  normalization of political and economic
  relations.
• The U.S. would provide formal assurances to the
  DPRK, against the threat or use of nuclear
  weapons by the U.S.
• The DPRK would take steps to implement the Korean
  Peninsula Denuclearization Declaration.

33
Nuclear Crisis

• 1994 Agreed Framework
• The DPRK would remain a party to the Nuclear
  Non-proliferation Treaty.
• IAEA ad hoc and routine inspections would resume
  for facilities not subject to the freeze.
• Existing spent nuclear fuel stocks would be
  stored and ultimately disposed of without
  reprocessing in the DPRK.
• DPRK would come into full compliance with its
  safeguards agreement with the IAEA

34
Nuclear Crisis

• US compliance with Agreed Framework is spotty
• North Korea doesnt get adequate energy
• NK continues pattern of brinksmanship to
  improve their position

35
South Korean Response

• President Kim Dae Jung (1998-2003) Initiates
  Sunshine Policy
• Attempts for the first time to engage NK with
  positive incentives
• Negotiates some trade and family exchanges

36
Axis of Evil and Bush Doctrine

• 2002 State of the Union President Bush includes
  North Korea in Axis of Evil with Iraq and Iran
• Iraq Invasion
• President Bush declares the Bush Doctrine of
  preemptive war
• US invades Iraq

37
North Korean Reaction

• 2003 Withdraw from Nuclear Non-proliferation
  Treaty
• Declares NK a nuclear power
• Insists on addressing only US, not 6-party talks

38
South Korean Response

• President Roh Moo Hyun (2003--) Continues
  Sunshine policy
• Disagrees with Bush administration on hard line
  approach

39
Conclusions

• North Koreas Nuclear threat derives from North
  Korean perception of insecurity
• Koreas division created that insecurity
• North Korea sees US as the core threat (40,000 US
  troops aimed at them)
• Bush Doctrine and US behavior since 2001
  reinforces perception of threat

40
Conclusions

• North Korean leadership is NOT crazy nor suicidal
• North Korea uses aggressive negotiating tactics
  to achieve its ends
• North Korea is unlikely to USE nuclear weapons
• Panic or over-reaction to North Korean
  provocations are counterproductive