Default Expectations for the Holocene from an Energy Balance Model

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Default Expectations for theHolocene from an
Energy Balance Model
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Change In solar insolation 9k-present
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Change In solar insolation 6k-present
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Change in annual mean insoltionOnly obliquity
matters
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Annual mean energy balance model- expected temp
change (6k-0)
Part of the would be change is damped by changes
in heat flux-
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Annual temperature changeIf heat flux doesnt
change
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Seasonal energy balance model-Seasonal
temperature change (6k-0) LAND
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Seasonal energy balance model-Annual temperature
change (6k-0)
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Monsoons

• Claim enhanced magnitude of summer insolation
  during the holocene forced stronger monsoons
• Assumption summer insolation was stronger
  during holcene
• COUNTERCLAIM- its just (mostly) a phase shift-
  JJA insolation is the worst possible proxy for
  magnitude of seasonal insolation

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Seasonal Insolation 6k and present 30 N
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Have I screwed something up?

• Very possibly, but I can come close to getting
  the JJA curve from my script

Note Ive used a three point interpolation of
orbital parameters -9 -6 0 which probably Does
a bad job between -6 and 0
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Can we define a better summer insolation index?

• Integrate the seasonal cycle of insolation for
  days where the insolation is above a threshold
  (400 W/m2)