Science, Salt Water, Submarines and Symbiosis

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Science, Salt Water, Submarines and Symbiosis
Knowledge for Development Seminar, Center for
International Development Kennedy School of
Government, Harvard University October 30, 2003

• Doing RD with the Navy
• Robert A. Frosch
• Part I Theory
• Oct 30, 2003

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Political Science Theory - I(As per Cote)

• Change in doctrine (and means) caused by
• Civilian Executives intervene (Posen)
• Internal Structural Processes (Rosen)
• (struggles for power, therefore slow)
• Inter-service rivalry
• Intra-service competition and struggles for power
• (In my experience, both frequently true.)

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Political Science Theory - II

• Conservatism encouraged by
• weapon system sunk costs
• education training sunk costs conservatism for
  career preservation
• learned routines and tactics
• rarity of war leads to untested (therefore
  trusted) weapons, systems and tactics
• difficulty of changing interservice/interallied
  coordinated systems

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Political Science Theory - II

• In this view, RD is (presumably) a byproduct of
  political battles.

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Macnamaras Revolution PPBS

• Planning, Programming Budgeting System (PPBS)
• Plan from foreign policy and national strategy on
  down to detailed budgeting
• In the process develop detailed strategy, weapons
  system and people needs, and RD requirements
• RD presumably a byproduct of military
  requirements?

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• However, a place for pure science, and the
  linear sequence, is implied (6.X is always
  RDTE in the DoD budget)
• 6.1 Basic Research
• 6.2 Applied Research
• 6.3 Advanced Technology Development
• 6.4 Demonstration and Validation
• 6.5 Engineering Manufacturing
  Development
• 6.6 RDTE Management Support
• 6.7 Operational Systems development

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Consequences of PPBS Theory

• Not an unreasonable idea, but impossible to carry
  out, so it became
• A giant bureaucratic/budgeting tangle
• No PPBS was ever finished, or ever complete
• It became Please Pass the BS
• And produced
• The military requirements muddle
• Cant do RD without a MilReq, but how know
  possible MilReqs without RD.?

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Solutions to the PPBS Military Requirements
Muddle

• MilReqs not required for 6.1 and 6.2,
• Which, in Navy, belong to the civilian
  Secretariat (which owns the 6.X budget anyway).
• but hard to get to 6.3, 6.5 without a MilReq
• Therefore, ignore and proceed
• If/when successful, get a sponsor for the
  appropriate MilReq, and synthesize benefit of
  clergy when necessary.

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The Military-Industrial Complex Theory

• The Arms Merchants (Lobby) made me do it!
• Partly true
• What assumptions does this theory make about the
  actors?
• Is this good or bad, and when?

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Another Theory

• Many Naval officers think!
• Many Scientists think!
• Sometimes Naval officers and Scientists think
  together! Symbiosis!
• Which Naval officers?
• Which Scientists?
• Note Arms Merchants sometimes think, too!
• Is this good or bad, and when?

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Some Frosch Theory

• The Customer for RD is always wrong!
• Butwhats the real question?
• Use System Engineering thinking
• Use matrices of knowledge for the task
• To escape bureaucracy
• find loopholes,
• use (purposeful) ignorance of rules, politics,
  and processes (synthetic innocence)

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The Customer for RD is Wrong

• What do they REALLY want?
• Eg fast airplane why, to do what?
• How do they know what the possibilities are?
• What are we technologists selling?
• Do they also want to tell us how to do it?
• Time relationships of need and possibilities?
• Etc., etc., etc..

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System Engineering Thinking

• What are we really trying to accomplish?
• Where in the generalized environment does the
  proposed system fit?
• With other systems, including natural
• Institutions and organizations
• Investment and operating costs For how long?
• What else could it do?
• How hard will it be to change?
• How could it be manufactured?
• Who will run it, and how?
• Etc, etc, etc...

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Knowledge Matrices

• A more efficient, lower emissions auto engine
  involves
• combustion chemistry
• electric spark/plasma physics
• fluid flow
• heat transfer
• mechanical systems
• materials
• etc., etc., etc..
• And then the next level down of detail..
• Etc.,etc.,etc.

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And, as will be illustrated

• In the real world individual pure theories dont
  control(sometimes the theories dont apply at
  all)
• Mix and Match!

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On to Practice

• (Stay tuned!)
• (To be continued next week.)