Grand Challenges in Modeling, Observations, and Information Systems

1
Grand Challenges in Modeling, Observations, and
Information Systems

• Jack A. Kaye
• Director, Research Division
• NASA Office of Earth Science
• Presented to CCSP Breakout Session
• December 4, 2002

2
Overview of Breakout Session

• Purpose of Grand Challenges in Modeling,
  Observations, and Information Systems Breakout
  Session
• Present overview of Chapter 12 in draft Plan
• Opportunity for prepared comments by invited
  reviewers of the draft Plan
• Opportunity for verbal questions, comments, and
  discussion from workshop attendees
• IMPORTANT Reminder To be effective in improving
  the Strategic Plan, comments should be submitted
  electronically according to instructions on the
  website (www.climatescience.gov follow links to
  Strategic Plan)

3
Why Modeling, Observations, and Information
Systems?

• These are critical building blocks for advancing
  the state of climate science
• Systems need to be able to support a variety of
  purposes and users ranging from basic science to
  decision support
• Challenge is to set priorities to guide
  coordinated, multi-agency investment strategy
  that minimizes gaps, avoids duplication, and
  enhances efficiency of user communities

4
From Science to Decision Support
Applying NASAs system engineering approach and
ESE results to support decision-making tools,
predictions, and analysis for policy and
management decisions.
Science Models Data Assimilation
Predictions
Value benefits to citizens and society
Info. Products
- Oceans - Ice - Land - Coupled - Atmosphere
Decision Support Tools
Policy Decisions Management Decisions
High Performance Computing, Communication,
Visualization

• Assessments
• Decision
• Support
• Systems

Data
Measurements Monitoring
Observations
- Satellite - Airborne - Ground
Data Products
5
Observations

• Global Change Act of 1990 specifically called for
  global observations to understand Earth system
  and document global change
• Many critical observational programs were not
  part of USGCRP and did not report through it,
  or budgets count in cross-cut
• Major emphasis went into creation of satellite
  system, with unprecedented global data now
  available and first series near completion
• Time series ex., decadal observations of ocean
  surface height
• New uses operational use of ocean surface wind
  observations
• New parameters improved global aerosol
  observations
• Had advances in surface networks and development
  of new technologies for surface measurements

6
Multiple Satellite Observations Provide Global
Perspectives
TRMM
Aqua
Cloudsat
CALIPSO
GRACE
TOPEX
GIFTS
Meteor/ SAGE
Landsat
NOAA/POES
SeaWiFS
Aura
Jason
Terra
SORCE
ICESat
7
Observations Challenges in Next Decade

• Complete development of space-based and in situ
  global climate and ocean observing systems
• Maintain quality through calibration focus
• Transition observations from research to
  operations
• Maintain and improve current ground-based
  observing systems needed for climate
  observations, and expand to meet needs for new
  variables
• Integrate surface and space-based measurements
  into comprehensive system
• Add new measurements to global suite of
  parameters observed from space
• Improve surface-based and in situ measurement
  technology for use in process study and satellite
  validation

8
Transition from Research to Operations
In operation
Imaging and Sounding
Under Development
Under Study or Formulation
Solar Irradiance, Ozone, and Aerosols
NPOESS
ACRIMsat
SORCE
SIGF
NPOESS
SAGE III
AURA
Observation
Ocean Surface Topography
Jason
OSTM
NPOESS/partners
Land Cover/Land Use Change
Commercial (USGS)
Landsat 7
LDCM
Technology
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
NCEP
Modeling
Short-term Prediction Research and Transition
Center
NWS
NASA NOAA jointly funding NRC studies on
improving transition
9
Observations Implementation Challenges

• Observing systems and networks must be
  implemented to allow flexibility as requirements
  and technology evolve
• Periodic reassessment of requirements and
  priorities must be made as CCSP plan is executed
  based on recognized prioritization criteria
• Scientific Return
• Benefit to Society
• Mandated Programs
• Partnership Opportunities
• Technology Readiness
• Program Balance
• Planning for transition from research to
  operational systems (esp. NPOESS) is a very
  important consideration
• US planning must be done in context of
  international planning while US leads in
  development of integrated system

10
Observations The Road Forward

• Stabilize existing observational capabilities.
• Maintain existing networks
• Provide global observations for parameters now
  available regionally.
• Identify and implement critical measurement
  improvements.
• Address major deficiencies
• Where possible, integrate new capabilities into
  existing networks
• Incorporate climate and global change observing
  requirements in operational programs at the
  appropriate level.
• Continue intensive field missions to mutually
  address process study and satellite
  calibration/validation.
• Continue a vigorous program in data reanalysis to
  ensure the time consistency and spatial
  homogeneity of global change data sets.

11
Modeling

• NRC reports (1999, 2001) make several points
• US has recognized leadership in basic climate
  science research
• US has shortcomings in integrating basic climate
  research into a comprehensive climate modeling
  capability
• Software, hardware, human resource, and
  management issues exist for routinely producing
  comprehensive climate modeling products
• A need exists in the US for a dedicated
  capability for comprehensive climate modeling
  activities

12
Modeling

• In next decade need for modeling systems to
• Go beyond physical climate system to include
  complex and interrelated nature of biogeochemical
  processes
• Provide predictions at regional scales
• Have adequate computing, software, and physics
  for models at necessary resolution and needed
  complexity
• Must be able to produce results on demand
• Maintain balance between product-driven modeling
  and discovery-driven research
• So, evolve to two complementary climate modeling
  activities
• Research product driven available to broader
  community for model development, computational
  science, and data assimilation
• Prediction quasi-operational charged with
  producing, on demand, required modeling products
  for policy analysis and assessment.
• Should employ a common modeling framework and be
  accompanied by investments in computing hardware,
  software, algorithms, tools, etc..

13
Data Management

• Currently US programs make enormous amounts of
  data available, but challenge for future is to
• Facilitate use by diverse user community working
  in interdisciplinary areas
• Disciplinary background
• Research/applications spectrum
• Computational Resources
• Assure that heterogeneous systems based on
  standard protocols, metadata, etc., support
  community through distributed architecture
• Provide long-term active stewardship for data in
  the face of rapidly evolving computational
  infrastructure and constrained organizational
  resources
• Recognize need to combine, relate, and integrate
  data from multiple sources - both sequentially
  and technique-wise

14
Data Management - Needs and Priorities

• CCSP Priorities
• Expand current data management infrastructure
• Encompass existing federal data centers
• Incorporate needed socioeconomic data
• Include partnerships with other entities to
  provide needed data
• Emphasize need for multi-disciplinary and
  multi-party solutions
• Identify requirements for effective use of
  archived data
• Provide active stewardship for historical data