Presentation Outline

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Presentation Outline

• Project Purpose and Approach
• Review of Existing Modeling Practice in
  California
• Methods for Improving Sensitivity to Smart-Growth
  Strategies
• Conclusions and Recommendations

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• Project Purpose and Approach

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Motivation for Project

• Continued growth is increasing congestion
• There is interest in Smart Growth
• Local jurisdictions need to be able to evaluate
  strategies
• Local models may not have adequate sensitivity

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Purpose of Project

• Examine how local modeling is being done in
  California
• Assess how sensitive local models are to Smart
  Growth
• Identify what supplemental methods are being used
• Prepare recommendations for how to
  improveSmart-Growth sensitivity

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Smart Growth Strategies

• Create Range of Housing
• Create Walkable Neighborhoods
• Mix Appropriate Land Uses
• Provide a Variety of Transportation Choices
• Direct Development Towards Existing Communities
• Take Advantage of Compact Building Design

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Desired Smart-Growth Effects

• Providing opportunities to satisfy travel needs
  at nearby destinations with shorter vehicle
  trips, trip chaining or non-motorized travel
• Using land use to create trips with
  origin-destination pairs that are more easily
  traveled by alternative modes
• Providing better and more attractive conditions
  for travel by alternative modes
• Providing economic incentives for use of
  alternative modes

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Project Approach

• Literature Review
• Conventional Transportation Modeling, Local
  Models, Smart-Growth Sensitive Methods
• Survey of Local Jurisdiction Practice
• Case Study of Six Local Jurisdictions
• Sensitivity Test of Supplemental Method 4D
  Elasticities
• Formulation of Conclusions and Recommendations

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• Review of Existing Modeling Practice in California

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Uses of Models in Local Land-Use and
Transportation Planning

• Visioning/Policy Development
• General Plan or Specific Plan
• Transportation Investment Study/Corridor Study
• Traffic Impact or Development Fee Program
• Traffic Impact Analysis/CEQA Analysis for New
  Development

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Urban Transportation Modeling System (UTMS)

• Use in local modeling is almost universal
• Often referred to as the Four-Step Model
  Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice and
  Assignment
• Trip-based
• Network-based
• Zonal representation of trip makers

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Common UTMS Limitations Affecting Smart-Growth
Sensitivity

• Trips not related
• Consideration of only vehicle trips
• No modeling of walking and bicycling
• Fixed vehicle trip rates by land use type
• Land use not affected by travel patterns

• Design not reflected in choice
• Zonal aggregation of decision makers
• Focus on peak-period travel
• Zones often too large

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Common Practice by Local Jurisdictions

• In area with large MPO SANDAG, SCAG, MTC, SACOG
• Usually a focused version of MPO model
• May also be a focused version of County (CMA)
  model
• MPO models multimodal and include non-motorized
  modes
• Local models may not carry all functions of MPO
  model
• In area with medium MPO
• Often the same model
• Usually includes mode choice
• In area with small MPO or no MPO
• Often most basic UTMS vehicle-trip model

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• Methods for Improving Sensitivity to Smart-Growth
  Strategies

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Methods for Increasing Smart-Growth Sensitivity

• Enhancement of UTMS Models
• Activity-Based Travel Models
• Fully Integrated Land Use and Transportation
  Models
• Application of Smart-Growth Trip and VMT
  Elasticities (4Ds) Estimated from Aggregate Zonal
  Data

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UMTS Improvement Options

• Income Stratification
• Disaggregate Simulation of Households
• Activity-based Modeling
• Integrated Transportation-Land Use Modeling

• Smaller Zones
• Mode Choice
• Non-Motorized Modes in Mode Choice
• Modeling Multiple Modes of Access to Transit
• Distribution Sensitive to Multi-Modal Options
• Auto Ownership Sensitive to Land-Use

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Logical Progression of Steps to Improve UTMS
Sensitivity
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4D Elasticities

• Density population and employment per square
  mile
• Diversity ratio of jobs to housing
• Design pedestrian environment variables
  including street grid density, sidewalk
  completeness and route directness
• Destination (Accessibility) mean travel time to
  all other destinations with a region
• 5th D Distance Distance to rail transit

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4D Elasticity Values
Source Criterion Planners/Engineers With Fehr
Peers Associates, October 2001.
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Sensitivity Test of 4D Elasticities

• Demonstrated reduction in vehicle trips and VMT
  from Smart-Growth strategies
• Changes in transit service had no effect on 4D
  results
• Sophisticated UTMS modeling methods capture most
  of the 4D effects

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4D Experience in California

• Software options
• GIS-based planning packages INDEX and PLACE3S
• Post Processor to UTMS Model
• Applications
• INDEX Fresno and Madera Councils of Government,
  City of Sacramento, Sacramento County, San Luis
  Obispo County
• PLACE3S Sacramento Region
• UTMS Post Processor Sacramento Region, Contra
  Costa County, Humboldt County, Development
  Proposals

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• Conclusions and Recommendations

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Conclusions Local Model Sensitivity to Smart
Growth Strategies

• Many local jurisdictions use models that have
  almost no sensitivity to Smart-Growth strategies
• Local jurisdictions using MPO or CMA models with
  more sophisticated features capture some of the
  Smart-Growth sensitivity but it is not clear how
  much is captured
• GIS systems making more sensitivity possible

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Conclusions Supplemental Methods

• 4D elasticities capture some of the Smart-Growth
  sensitivity but not all
• The 4D elasticities capture some unknown
  trip-reduction effects as a result of correlation
• The 4D elasticities can estimate reduced VT and
  VMT that are assumed to be made on transit, even
  if there is little or not transit service

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Recommendations Local Jurisdiction Practice

• Local jurisdictions with moderate-to-high-sensitiv
  ity models should strive to continue to enhance
  their models for Smart-Growth sensitivity
• Local jurisdictions with low-sensitivity models
  should consider using a 4D post processor

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Recommendations Research Development and
Training

• More research, development and training needed to
  support more sophisticated modeling by local
  jurisdictions
• More research should be conducted to support 4D
  elasticities or other post processing methods