Jor-Shan Choi

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Jor-Shan Choi Professor, G-COE Project Nuclear
Engineering Management Department Tokyo
University, Japan 81-3-5841-2954 Choi_at_lnuclear
.jp 4th Meeting of the CSCAP Study Group on
Energy Security Empire Hotel, Bandar Seri
Begawan, Brunei July 8-9, 2008
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Presentation Outline

• Current Status
• Why nuclear and why now?
• Key Issues for nuclear power development
• Toward a New Nuclear Regime
• A New Vision

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NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS INFORMATION
Nuclear Capacity (2008) in the World
104 in the US
59 in France

• 439 nuclear power plants
• 3 countries hold ½ of operating plants - US (104)
  France (59), and Japan (55)
• 5 nuclear weapons countries also account for gt50
  of all operating plants

55 in JAPAN
Taken from Power Reactor Information system,
IAEA
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Why Nuclear and Why Now
1) Oil and gas price surge
2) Environmental concerns
Carbon concentration
Temperatures
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Why nuclear and why now
3) Energy Security
4) Increased Living Standard
Oil and gas supply disruptions Infrastructural
security Shipping chokepoints
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Why Nuclear and Why Now

• Nuclear energy, relative to fossil fuels,
  contributes little to greenhouse gas emissions
• Relative to oil and gas, the ability to stockpile
  uranium offers greater assurance of weathering
  potential cutoffs
• Nuclear energy is a proven technology which can
  provide a large scale electricity generation base
  for lifting the standard of living in many
  countries without emitting green house gases and
  further damaging the global environment
• Nuclear energy can also help offset
  transportation emissions now by supporting hybrid
  cars, and in the future, through the production
  of hydrogen

Uranium Spot Prices 2007 - 2008
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Generations of Nuclear Energy
Generation IV
Revolutionary Designs
Generation III
Generation III
Evolutionary Designs
Advanced LWRs

• Safe
• Sustainable
• Economical
• Proliferation Resistant and Physically Secure

• ABWR
• ACR1000
• AP1000
• APWR
• EPR
• ESBWR

• CANDU 6
• System 80
• AP600

http//www.gen-4.org/Technology/evolution.htm
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Courtesy of M. Senzaki of JAEA
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Design Improvement and High Availability
Higher Availability Factor
Standardized design and Cumulative
operation experience
Passive Safety Systems Eliminate Components
Simplify Safety Systems Reduce Building
Volumes
Reduce Costs
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Key Issues for Nuclear Energy Development

• Costs/Financing
• Nuclear safety and security
• Human resource and infrastructural development
• Spent fuel and waste management
• Nuclear non-proliferation

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Costs and Financing - Its the economics

• Nuclear generators are expensive to build, but
  their fuel costs are low
• Combined-cycle gas plants are far less expensive
  to build, but their fuel costs are much higher
• Intermittent technologies like wind and solar
  produce less power over time
• With the inclusion of CO2 charges (i.e., carbon
  tax), the nuclear plant will cost less than
  combined-cycle gas plant and coal plant in the US

In the past few decades, nuclear power has proven
to be poor investments, producing far more
expensive electricity than originally promised

• In the US, the Advanced Energy Initiative of
  2006 offered financial incentive
• for new plant construction that employs new
  reactors and technologies
• New financial arrangement needed for Asian
  Pacific region

US Congressional Research Council Study, 2007
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NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS INFORMATION
Nuclear Safety and Security

• Since TMI and Chernobyl, the global nuclear power
  generation has maintain good safety record
  through stringent regulation, automated and
  redundant safety systems, and the industrys
  commitment to comprehensive safety procedures
• Since 11 September 2001, the nuclear industry has
  substantially enhanced security at nuclear plants
  requiring extensive security measures in place to
  protect the facility from intruders
• Can these accidents happen again?
• How can a good safety culture be in-forced
  world-wide?

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NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS INFORMATION
Human Resource Development
Tokyo University Global COE Program
Funding to Nuclear Engineering Programs in
Universities Has Increased
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Infrastructural Development
New nuclear infrastructure is highly optimized
1978 Plastic models on roll-around carts
2007 4-D computer aided design and virtual
walk-through
McGuire Nuclear Station Reactor Building Models.
GT-MHR
Operating in a mature industry, the consortia
work with their supply chains for major
equipment to support the near-term deployment of
Gen-III and Gen-III reactors
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The Crucial Role of Waste Management

• Provide a safe and secure disposition for Spent
  Nuclear Fuel (SNF) and Radioactive Wastes (HLW)
• Regional/international solutions driven by
  security considerations

USDOE submitted a license application to USNRC
on 3 June 2008 for Yucca Mountain as the US SNF
and HLW repository
Yucca Mountain
Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
Repositories and storage become instruments of
security, more than utility dumping grounds
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Nuclear Non-Proliferation

• IAEA safeguards (Pre-NPT, CSA, AP)
• To stop Onward Proliferation, i.e., spread of
  sensitive technologies (enrichment
  reprocessing, ER), and to prevent nuclear
  weapons-materials-capability to fall onto wrong
  hands, new proposals were made by
• - M. El Baradei, DG, IAEA limit ER to
  international controls
• - G. W. Bush, US President limit ER to
  existing full-scale facilities
• - V. Putin, RF President International Uranium
  Enrichment Center
• - Others

Business as usual is no longer an acceptable
option. A new nuclear regime is needed to deal
with the non-proliferation and environmental
risks
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Forming a global network of nuclear fuel cycle
facilities
Reducing non-proliferation and waste burden

• J. S. Choi, An innovative fuel cycle concept
  with nonproliferation and waste considerations
  for small and medium sized reactors,
• International Seminar on Status and Prospects
  for Small and Medium Sized Reactors, Cairo Egypt,
  May 27-31, 2001

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A Global Network of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities

• Is not necessarily a regional nuclear fuel cycle
  center
• Does not need to be within a national boundary
• Could be formed by framework of contractual
  agreements among companies and supported by their
  respective countries,
• Is intended to provide a cradle-to-grave fuel
  cycle services to countries generating
  electricity for their citizen,
• Nuclear fuel cycle facilities in the network must
  comply with international safety standards and
  safeguards requirements
• Countries can benefit from nuclear energy without
  the burdens of non-proliferation and waste
  management, much like a country can provide air
  transportation to its citizens by operating
  airlines without the large investment in aircraft
  manufacturing

Most fuel-cycle services are provided today
except for long-term spent fuel storage and
repository disposal. Regioanl/multilateral
cooperation is needed for the network
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A New Vision

• Countries have access to nuclear power at market
  prices
• Nuclear fuel supplies are assured at competitive
  prices
• Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is returned to
  appropriate countries for management and disposal
• Spread of sensitive fuel cycle technologies
  (Enrichment/reprocessing) reduced or eliminated

• The former USSR took spent fuel back from other
  countries
• Russia currently takes spent fuel back from CIS
  countries
• The US takes research reactor spent fuel from
  other countries

• Can the Nuclear Weapons Countries do more?
• Can the Uranium Producing Countries do more?