Division of Science Resources Statistics

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Division of Science Resources Statistics
The Complex National Effects of High-Skilled
Migration Council for Foreign Relations New
York, NY February 18, 2007 Mark Regets National
Science Foundation Arlington Institute for the
Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn (Affiliations for
biographical purposes only) mregets_at_nsf.gov
703-292-7813
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• ETHICAL DISCLAIMER
• (No, not the one that says that my employer does
  not necessarily share my views, although that is
  also true.)
• While it is very useful for policy makers and
  social scientists to study the effects of the
  movement of highly-skilled migrants
• Freedom of movement is a human right that would
  have positive value even if all economic effects
  were negative.
• The greatest benefits of migration accrue to
  the individuals choosing to move across borders.

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National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Changes in how ST is done

• More ST activity of all types is done across
  borders
• Teams and collaborations physically located in
  multiple countries
• Both basic research product development
• Global capacity for ST growing rapidly in most
  part of the world.
• ST capacity much less centralized, U.S. now
  less than ¼ of world RD

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Sending Countries Possible Negatives
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• Brain drain lost productive capacity due to at
  least temporary absence of workers and students
  with higher skills
• Less support for public funding of higher
  education

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National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Share of college-educated foreign-born
individuals in the
United States who hold foreign degrees 2003
(Percentages)
Highest
Any
degree from
Foreign
foreign
foreign
secondary
university
university
degree
school
Bachelors
47.9
49.7
65.8
Masters
26.8
58.6
74.2
Professional
58.5
63.3
49.5
Doctoral
36.3
78.6
93.0
69.2
All degree levels
41.4
54.8
Source

NSF/SRS 2003 National Survey of College Graduates.
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Sending Countries Possible Positives
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• Increased incentive for natives to seek higher
  skills
• Possibility of exporting skills, which reduces
  risk and raises expected return of personal
  education investments
• Increase in domestic economic return to skills
• Knowledge flows and collaboration
• Increased ties to foreign research institutions
• Export opportunities for technology
• Return of natives with foreign education and
  human capital
• Remittances and other support from diaspora
  networks

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National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Relationship of foreign-born U.S. SE doctorate
recipients to their country's scientific
collaboration with United States 199498
graduates and 19992003 articles
SOURCES Thomson ISI, Science Citation Index and
Social Sciences Citation Index,
http//www.isinet.com/products/citation/ ipIQ,
Inc. National Science Foundation, Division of
Science Resources Statistics, Survey of Earned
Doctorates (199498), special tabulations and
National Science Board, Science and Engineering
Indicators, 2006.
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Chinese Student Flows 1985-2005
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Source NSF/SRS analysis of data from the China
National Bureau of Statistics
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Receiving Countries Possible Negatives
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• Decreased incentive of natives to seek higher
  skills
• Possibility of displacement of native students
  from best schools
• Language and cultural barriers between native and
  immigrant highly skilled workers
• Technology transfers to competitors and to
  possibly hostile countries

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Fixed-effects model estimates of the change in
U.S. native SE graduate enrollment associated
with changes in graduate temporary-visa foreign
student enrollment
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
An increase of one fulltime foreign student in a
SE graduate department is associated with
0.02 fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. minority
0.33 fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. white - 0.07
full time U.S. citizen/perm. Asian
Model Departmental level fixed effects
controlling for department size in the previous
period, dummy variables for year, and changes in
the enrollment of other groups. Data NSF
Graduate Student Survey, 1982-1995
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Receiving Countries Possible Positives
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• Increased RD and economic activity due to
  availability of additional highly skilled workers
  and students.
• Knowledge flows and collaboration.
• Increased ties to foreign research institutions.
• Export opportunities for technology.
• Increased enrollment in graduate programs,
  possibly keeping smaller programs alive.

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Trends in the percent foreign-born in science and
engineering occupation in the U.S. 1990-2004
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Number of Postdocs at U.S. Universities by
Citizenship Status
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SOURCE NSF/SRS Survey of Graduate Students and
Postdocs (GSS) 2005
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Multiple Node Knowledge Network

• Increased and more complex flows of students,
  workers, and finances
• Increased regional ST collaboration and links
  between regions
• Global and regional labor markets for some skills
• Increased importance of individuals with high
  betweennessthose connecting the nodes

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Possible Global Effects
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Division of Science Resources Statistics

• Better international flow of knowledge.
• Better job matches through global job search.
• Greater job options for workers and researchers.
• Greater ability of employers to find rare or
  unique skill sets.
• Formation of international research or technology
  clusterse.G., Silicon valley, CERN).
• Net positive effect on incentives for individual
  human capital investments as a result of
  international competition for scarce human
  capital.

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National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Resources NSF Division of Science Resources
Statistics www.nsf.gov/statistics/ Science and
Engineering Indicators 2006 www.nsf.gov/statistic
s/seind06/ Institute for the Study of Labor
(IZA) Discussion Papers www.iza.org Mark
Regets 703-292-7813 mregets_at_nsf.gov
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Supplemental Slides
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Foreign-born proportion of SE degree holders in
the United States 2003
Source NSF/SRS SESTAT 2003
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National Science Foundation
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National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Is there much of a native-born U.S. Diaspora?

• 485,000 college educated U.S. Citizens found in
  2000/2001 censuses of OECD countries (Docquier
  2004)
• 1.2 million U.S. Individual tax returns filed
  abroad (growing at 3.5 annual rate)
• 3 percent of U.S. Native-born Ph.D.s in science
  and engineering have initial foreign employment

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National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Simple model of expected value of human capital
when migration is an option
E(H) Pm Ef(H) (1 Pm) Ed(H) where Pm is
the subjective individual probability of
migration Ef is the expected value of human
capital H in the foreign labor market Ed is the
expected value of the same human capital in the
domestic labor market
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National Science Foundation
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Five-year Stay Rate of 1998 Temporary Visa Ph.D.
Recipients
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National Science Foundation
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Top 11 countries with citizens with at least a
tertiary-level education residing abroad in OECD
countries (2000)
Source Docquier and Marfouk, International
Migration by Educational Attainment (1990-2000),
World Bank
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Division of Science Resources Statistics