Democracy and Electoral Alternation: Evolving African Attitudes

1
(No Transcript)
2
Democracy and Electoral AlternationEvolving
African Attitudes

• Afrobarometer Briefing Paper No. 9

3
Research Question Are Africans attitudes to
democracy enduring or ephemeral? (e.g. Round 1
Afrobarometer established that 69 percent of
Africans interviewed prefer democracy to other
forms of government). Argument Based on Round 2,
we find that democratic commitments are not
fixed they tend to decline with the passage
of time they can be refreshed by an electoral
alternation of power
4

• Inferring Trends
• We prefer to have at least three observations
  over time. A trend line based on three or more
  data points helps to avoid faulty inferences
  based on
• volatile shifts in newly formed attitudes
• momentary blips within longer term trends
• mere measurement errors
• Since only two observations are available for
  Round 2, we only consider changes of 10
  percentage points or more.
• margin of sampling error for one survey is
  /- 3 percent
• margin of sampling error for two surveys is
  /- 6 percent
• other measurement errors are present
• therefore, select a conservative criterion

5
(No Transcript)
6
Data Differences in observed values
between Afrobarometer Round 1 (12 countries),
July 1999-October 2001 Afrobarometer Round 2 (15
countries), June 2002-October 2003 Attitudes to
Democracy On the demand side support for
democracy rejection of authoritarian rule On
the supply side satisfaction with
democracy estimates of democracys extent
7
Which of these statements is closest to your own
opinion? A Democracy is preferable to any other
kind of government B. In some circumstances, a
non-democratic government can be preferable C.
For someone like me, it doesnt matter what kind
of government we have.
8
Note Results for Ghana and Botswana exclude
dont knows. Indicates a change of 10
percentage points or more.
9
There are many ways to govern a country. Would
you approve or disapprove of the following
alternatives? A. The army comes in to govern the
country B. Elections and parliament are
abolished so that the president can decide
everything C. Only one political party is
allowed to stand for election and hold office.
10
(No Transcript)
11
Overall, how satisfied are you with the way
democracy works in (your country)?
12
Note Results for Ghana and Botswana exclude
dont knows. Indicates a change of 10
percentage points or more.
13
In your opinion, how much of a democracy is (your
country) today? Is it A. A full democracy B. A
democracy, but with minor problems C. A
democracy with major problems D. Not a
democracy?
14
Note Results for Ghana and Botswana exclude
dont knows. Indicates a change of 10
percentage points or more.
15
The Alternation Effect Huntingtons test two
turnovers the consolidation of democracy Our
modified hypothesis in the public imagination,
an electoral alternation of ruling parties helps
to legitimize democracy Test months elapsed
since the last electoral alternation by change
in support for democracy -.492 change in
rejection of authoritarianism -.174 change in
satisfaction with democracy -.081 change in
perceived extent of democracy -.665
16
Pearsons R correlation -.665, significance
.031 (2-tailed)
17
Conclusions Public opinion in Africa appears to
follow an electoral cycle. At first, multiparty
transitions boost democratic sentiments, even in
the absence of alternation. The bad news is that
democratic commitments decay (often in response
to disappointing government performance or to
ruling parties that overstay their welcome). The
good news is that democratic legitimacy can be
renewed (either by improved performance or, in
its absence by the replacement of
under-performing governments at the polls).
18
For More Informationwww.afrobarometer.org
19
(No Transcript)