Daniel Sperling

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Institute of Transportation StudiesUniversity of
California, Davis
(Passenger) Transport Policy and Climate Change
Daniel Sperling Professor and Director dsperling_at_
ucdavis.edu IPIECA October 13, 2004
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What I Will Say

• I. Tends Headed in Wrong Direction
  (unsustainable?!) (a review)
• More carbon emissions, vehicle travel (esp rapid
  in developing countries)
• Next 50 years is very problematic
• II. Many Transport Strategies and Options
• Technical efficiency can offset increasing
  driving
• Non-carbon fuels necessary to significantly
  reduce GHGs
• Many compelling options in rapidly expanding
  economies
• III. Revolutionary Transformations Needed in
  Policy and Technology to Reduce GHG Reductions
• Climate change is weaker driver in transport
  than other sectors
• Freight story is similar increasing travel and
  fuel use, with few alternatives being seriously
  pursued.

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REALITY CO2 Emissions Increasing (Worldwide and
US), with Increasing Share From Transport
Source International Energy Agency, 2000
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Abundant Oil But Being Re-carbonized Such
as Alberta Tar Sands
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Vehicle travel continues to increase -- faster
than population (2/yr US faster elsewhere)
Population 29
Lane-miles 16

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and US Vehicle Fuel Economy is Flat
Source Heavenrich, R.M., and K.H. Hellman. 2003
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Fuel Economy is Being Traded for Weight, Power
and Performance in the US market (LDVs)
Source Hellman and Heavenrich, EPA 2003
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If trends continue, this will be the SUV of the
future Navistar SUV
4.5 longer, 2 higher than Hummer. For sale Sept
2004!
Navistar ad says POSSIBLY TOO MUCH TRUCK . LIKE
THATS A PROBLEM.
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Efficiency Innovation is Strong, Increasing
1-2/yr (US light vehicles) but not enough to
overcome travel increases
Policy and prices matters! Private desires vs
public interest
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GHG trends are even more problematic in
developing world

• Vehicles and travel are increasing rapidly

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The New Reality for Personal Vehicles in
Developing Countries

• Personal transport is now available at low cost
  and therefore at very low incomes. The result is
  greater mobility in developing countries, with
  rapidly increasing energy use and greenhouse gas
  emissions (and traffic congestion, traffic
  deaths, and pollution).

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China
India
Indonesia
Laos
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In China, rural vehicle prodn is greater than
conventional car and truck prodn (over 3 million
vehs/yr) (with huge benefits for development)
2300
3400
700
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Transport Energy GHG Emissions Will Increase up
to 7 Fold in Some Regions in Next 20 Years
Source Sperling and Salon, 2002 (Pew)
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While vehicle use soars, mass transit declines
(virtually everywhere)
Public transport share of motorized passenger
kilometers
Source Kenworthy and Laube (1999)
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And Urban Population Densities are Falling
Everywhere
Source Demographia (2001).
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The point is

• GHG and oil trends for transportation are headed
  in the wrong direction virtually everywhere in
  world.
• More vehicles and vehicle travel
• due to increasing income and deteriorating
  transit, in concert with sprawling land use
• Vehicles are larger and more powerful
• Fuels are re-carbonizing
• These are robust trends. There is no evidence
  these trends will change barring catastrophes
  or major perturbations of some sort.

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Demand for more and larger vehicles is closely
linked to income. Is this an ironclad
relationship?
USA
Source IEA, 2000
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Car ownership rates can vary widely, even at
similar incomes Beijing has 2-3 times more cars
per capita than Shanghai (1.8 million vs
800,000), with less income. (And Delhi, with far
less income, has even more vehicles per capita!).
There is not a fixed relationship between income
and car ownership. Policy makes a difference!
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How to Reduce GHG Emissions (and avoid road
paralysis)??

• Reduce vehicle travel (demand management and
  urban form) ineffective in US
• Improve conventional technology (more energy
  efficient vehicles) diverted to private
  benefits in US
• Introduce advanced (electric) powertains and
  low-carbon fuels
• In developing countries, motivations for change
  are road construction costs, air pollution, and
  oil dependency (frequently in this order).

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Policy Framework to Restrain GHGs

• Regulation Market Direct
• instruments investment
• Vehicle
• Efficiency
• Fuel Choice
• Mode Choice
• Travel Activity
• Vehicle Load

This is the easy part. The hard part is devising
and implementing specific and effective actions
for each region.
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CO2 Equivalent GHG Emissions (Full Energy Cycle)
Heavily utilized buses have much lower GHG
emissions per passenger-km than any other
motorized mode.
India/China
Grams/ Grams/
Vehicle-Km Passenger-Km Car
(2.5 passengers) 300 120 Small
Motorcycle (two-stroke) (1.2 pass) 120
100 Small Motorcycle (four-stroke) (1.2
pass) 70 60 Rail
Transit n.a. 50 Diesel
Bus (40 pass) 1000
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Technology is key for large reductions in GHGs,
relatively more so in OECD (where vehicle use is
growing more slowly)
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Per Km, Relative to
Gasoline-Powered ICE, Full Energy Cycle
Fuel/Feedstock Change Fuel Cells, Hydrogen
with Solar Power -90 to 85 Ethanol from
Cellulose -90 to 40 BEVs, Natural Gas
Plants -60 to 25 Hybrid EV -40 to
-10 Diesel -25 to -15 BEVs, current U.S.
power mix -20 to 0 Gasoline
- Actual impacts could vary considerably. These
estimates reflect a large number of assumptions
and should be treated as illustrative.
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Modes of Travel
Bus/metro
Mode Split
Jitneys, Motorcycles
Cars
Walking, Bicycling
Income
Many modes of travel, each with unique
attributes. The challenge is to create
incentives, public investment, and rules that
lead to efficient use of modes.
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GHG Policy Initiatives in Japan, EU, China, and
California

• Japanese have fuel economy requirements that
  reduce new-vehicle fuel consumption by more than
  20 by 2010 -- based on top-of-class rules.
• EU has a voluntary agreement with automakers that
  reduce CO2 emissions of light duty cars by 25 by
  2008.
• China and California have proposed rules to
  reduce GHGs and fuel consumption
• But these rules and laws at best only offset
  increases in light duty vehicle travel.

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Diesel Cars Becoming Common in Europe
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Low Carbon Alt Fuel Choices?

• Most Promising
• Cellulosic ethanol (trees, switch grass, etc)
• Battery electric vehicles (grid electricity)
• Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (fossil, renewable)
• Other?
• 3rd rail electricity (overhead, pavement, rail)
• Fuel cells that reform etoh/meoh on-board

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a new idea with great potential to reduce
travel ... applying telematics to create new
modes and increase intermodalism.
Source Dan Sturges, UC Davis
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(No Transcript)
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Findings Developing Countries

• Economies and populations of many cities are
  growing at unprecedented rates and personal
  vehicles are often available at relatively low
  cost.
• Rapid motorization and large increases in
  transport-related GHGs are unavoidable in near
  and medium term future.
• Relationship between car ownership and income is
  NOT fixed. (Income is primary force of
  motorization, but much variation in veh ownership
  between cities/countries at similar income
  levels.)
• Policy and investment decisions with far reaching
  implications must be made quickly, or
  consequences could be catastrophic.
• Many sensible policies and strategies available
  to slow motorization and GHGs in near and medium
  term.

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Findings Developing Countries (contd)

• Many strategies for reducing GHGs are also
  attractive transportation, economic,
  environmental, and social strategies.
• Strong local expertise and strong commitment to
  planning and management are needed to meet
  transportation challenges (and restrain GHG
  emissions). (Even with greatest sophistication
  and best managers, choices are not obvious. Blind
  copying of other cities in most cases would be
  ineffective.)

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Suggested Strategies and Policies

• Manage growth in vehicle use and vehicle size
  (with carrots and sticks) (feebates,
  congestion pricing, HOT lanes, etc)
• Energetically pursue conventional and
  unconventional alternatives to current car usage
  and ownership patterns (BRT, new mobility)
• Coordinate land use, energy, environmental, and
  industrial policy
• Pursue enhanced technologies such as 4-stroke
  motorbikes in LDCs, hybrids, and fuel cells
• Adopt rules and market instruments to reduce oil
  use and GHGs
• Preserve attractiveness of non-motorized options
  (esp LDCs)
• Expand RD on clean energy RD (pubic and
  private)

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OECD Social Values versus Economics

• FACTS
• US/OECD can afford high levels of energy
  consumption
• Fossil energy is abundant
• Mobility (accessibility) is highly valued
• It is easier and less expensive to reduce GHGs
  in other sectors
• Result is slow adoption of green transport
  technologies, and high demand for large, powerful
  vehicles in US
• But if we believe these decisions are
  unacceptable, then what decision/policy framework
  should be used?

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Thank You